Donn Handicap

[Valuist]

Great betting race here. 13 horses in a Grade 1 going 1 1/8 miles. At first look, I thought there was a ton of speed in there. Red Bullet will probably be favored and should be but being a Preakness winner and getting Bailey up you have to believe he may be overbet. Graeme Hall? He's going to take money but I think he'll be overbet. He's been off 2.5 months and his 1 for 3 record at GP isn't that great, with the lone win being a photo at 6-5 in a NW1X. Hal's Hope finished only 1/2 length behind Red Bullet so he fits. He's also 3 for 5 at GP including the Florida Derby 2 years ago. He's also in good form. Free of Love looks very interesting to me. He's sharp, coming off a win over 100K claimers, likes the track (2 for 3) and he has bigger back numbers routing last year so he could move forward off his last. He'll be near the pace but probably just off it. Mongoose may get overbet after beating a hurt Monarchos in his last race. It was a 5 horse field with a soft pace. His entrymate Ubiquity is capable and won the Gr 2 Clark in his last. Only question is the layoff. Another sleeper, IMO, is Duckhorn. I think he can clear Keats and the other speed. He beat Lido Palace and Guided Tour in the Hawthorne Gold Cup w/a Beyer # of 116. He hasn't run well over the track, however. Kiss A Native may be an interesting longshot also. He beat Hals Hope in his last race on the main track. Only negative is the 12 post. Best of the Rest also beat Hals' Hope by almost 9 at Calder in November and has a nice bullet work.

Playing tris
In the first position: Red Bullet, Free of Love, Best of the Rest
2nd position: same as top three plus Kiss A Native
3rd position: same as above plus Hal's Hope

27 tickets

 

[Patternseeker]

was out of town yesterday --- have i missed this race or is it today, sunday?

 

[Patternseeker]

scratch that valuist

scratch that valuist

just read yesterday's results on drf.

wow, red bullet DQed. wonder what happened.

 

[polecat]

good strategy, valuist.

i like those "good betting races" as you say. i have lost my last ticket betting races where a 3/5 favorite is in the race, is a serious contender, and either wins or finishes second. it wipes any profitability in the exacta and usually the tri. not a good wager and my cement head has finally figured that out.

 

[Valuist]

I've been betting horses longer than I've been betting sports and a guy I've known a long time who's a professional horse bettor believes in spreading out in the exotics. The reasoning is that the favorites are usually over-bet, and some longshots are also overbet in the win slot. One of his favorite strategies for the trifecta is to use 2 horses in the "win" slot, 4 horses in the 2nd slot and 6 horses in the third slot. I've also found that in Pic 3s it helps to have one race, or sometimes even 2, where you spread out 5 deep in that leg, and either single or use 2 horses in one leg. This is more efficient than going 3x3x3.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

hi valuist,...have a couple questions for u.
we have a mutual friend...buddy from pittsburgh...im ken from pgh....he told me u are excellent on hoop totals and preseason ncaa....didnt know u were into horses as well.

anyway, recently i went to mountaineer park for the weekend with my wife. they offer about million slot machines, thoroughbred race track and simulcast horse betting well she loves to play the slot machines and i do not. i figured i would sit at the bar and bet the horses all day.
which i proceeded to do. keep in mind i am not a horse player.
but i am a sports handicapper, so obviously i would need a system. i had about 500 with me to lose, but ofcourse i didnt want to. i sat down at the bar it had about 10 tv screens to watch from different tracks across the country. i got about 4-programs from the thoroughbred tracks, since i like to watch them versus harness or dogs. one comment about thoroughbreds...this was the first time i got to witness live...standing by the rail at the track....the horses coming to the wire...what a rush!!...watching this on tv dosent do it justice.
the sheer power and speed these horses displayed was unbelievable! not to mention the sound of 10 horses stampedeing to the wire...the sound of their hoofs and them snorting....wow, i am hooked, very exciting!

well, heres what i decided to do....i got my 4-programs from tracks like phil.park, oaklawnn, santa anita and gulf stream,
etc. i didnt have much of a clue how to figure all these numbers out. but i did see at the top of each page they gave u the morning line selections. i figured obviously some expert sets these odds...just like the line is set in vegas for sports betting.
so i circled the 3 or 4 morning line favorites and then watched the odds movements on these horses. i noted the opening line/odds for each of these morn. line favs. then i figured i would bet on the horse that the line/odds moved up on. i figured this has got to be just like any type of gambling in that the majority of bettors lose.
so, usually one of the 3 or 4 morn. line favs would be the favorite as
the betting started. and in most races atleast one of the other
3 or 4 morn. line favs the odds would go up. say for example, if a horse opened at 2-1 and went to 5-1 i would bet on that horse.
if 2 or more of the horses odds went up, i would usually pass or bet the horse which had the lowest morn. line.
anway, the first day i ended up just about even. keep in mind i was feeling my way thru this system. i was betting 10 or 15 across the board on each race. at one point i was up about 300
and then lost it back to break even. i probably made about 30 wagers that 1st day.

the next day i went and figured i am armed and dangerous now!
i got my 4-programs and was ready to go get em. i proceeded to hit 5 of the 1st 6 races i bet on. im talking the winner of each race.
im sitting there shaking my head thinking this cant be this easy.
well my success rate went down as the day wore on, but i left that day up about 500. ive got to think that after making roughly 60 bets in 2-days at 30 or 45 a pop i shouldve been broke. but to end up plus, well i must be onto something.

so, you being an expert horse player. was this just dumb luck?
or is there some merit to this system. or do other horse bettors use this type of system?
me being the nut that i am. i would like to track this system. is there a website or sportsbook that i can get programs or morning lines for each track, and also would need to be able to find results with closing odds. not sure if they provide the closing odds with results, but isnt there a formula to figure odds from the price they paid? if so, how does it work?

well, thats about it....ure comments would be appreciated or if u would like, i could give u a call sometime, especially if i may need to explain this system better to you. im not the best at typing/writing, so hopefully you understand what i was trying to explain.

thanks.

 

[polecat]

hey steel, im not "V" but he'll probably see this and respond later.

i consider myself a student of a very difficult game when it comes to horses. im not sure you could take the morning lines and make a living off them, but perhaps you've garnered some strategy.

trying to figure how what to bet -- i mean, a unit to win and two to place -- things like that -- seem as much a part of the puzzle as trying to pick contenders.

some research, perhaps five years old, so i am not sure if it still holds, is that the fav hits the win about 30 percents of the time. so just playing favs will leave you busted, as you have figured out.

hope you keep posting, steel. thanks your insights.

 

[Valuist]

Steel City-

Its been my experience that there is a big variance in the accuracy of morning lines. Some are absolutely terrible. I'd say New York's are the most accurate. But at some tracks where they are figured by some guy in the racing office who knows nothing about 'capping, they're not very accurate so I'd be careful. Early money does seem to be very effective at the smaller Kentucky tracks (Ellis, Ky Downs, and Turfway), but not nearly as much so at Churchill and Keeneland. One of my favorite angles at Turfway and Ellis is a borderline contender, a horse who should maybe be 6 or 7-1 who opens at 1-1 then starts to slowly drift upward. I've owned a couple horses and know other owners; when their horse is ready to roll, they usually bet early, because they want to be in the paddock w/the horse and trainer, and not have to worry about getting shut out. The game of racing is not easy; there's more variables to it than any game I can think of.