It's been quite a year for the double-digit dog in the NFL. Heading into the weekend underdogs were a perfect 9-0 ATS, but they finally broke through with a point-spread cover (Seattle +10.5 at TB) and a near miss with the 49ers at the NY Giants - early betters at +10.5 lost while those who waited +12.5 cashed.
Nonetheless, double-digit NFL Dogs have still covered at an amazing 90.1 percent clip.
Equally amazing is the success rate of favorites who lay just a couple of points less
(between 7.5 points and 9.5 points). So far, these favorites are 11-8 ATS, for a decent 57.9 percent win rate.
The first two weeks of the season saw this double-digit trend start with the Chiefs covering as 16-point underdogs at the Pats (NE 17-10) and the Bears getting the money as a 10 1/2-point dog at the Colts (Bears 29-13) in Week 1 followed by the Raiders (+10) covering at the Bills (Buffalo 24-23) in Week 2.
Week 3 saw two more big numbers fail to cover when the Giants (-13) only beat the Bengals,
26-23, and the Patriots, a 12 1/2-point favorite, getting beat outright by the Dolphins, 38-13.
The Redskins (+400 Moneyline), a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys, also won outright in Week 4, 26-24. Then in Week 5 Dallas again fell as a big double-digit favorite (-16) to the Bengals as 16-point chalks (Cowboys 31-22).
Last weekend, the trend jumped to 9-0 ATS when the 13-point favorite Vikings eked out a last-minute win over the Lions (12-10), and the Redskins, an 11 1/2-point favorite, were upset by the then-undefeated Rams, 19-17.
Records reveal that over the past six years (2002-2008), there have been 177 instances in the NFL where teams closed as 10-point favorites (Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook).
In those 177 games, the underdog had covered 93 times (52.5%), the favorite 80 times(45%) and four of the games pushed (2.3%). Alot of professional gamblers will automatically plug in a double-digit dog and just bet them on the mega-trend- said that he wouldn't be surprised if the double-digit favorites didn't start doing a little covering of their own and revert back to that statistical mean.
The so-caled "regression to the mean" hypothesis suggests everything evens out in the long fun: coin flips, dice rolls and, apprarently, double-digit favorites.
Only time will tell.
Nonetheless, double-digit NFL Dogs have still covered at an amazing 90.1 percent clip.
Equally amazing is the success rate of favorites who lay just a couple of points less
(between 7.5 points and 9.5 points). So far, these favorites are 11-8 ATS, for a decent 57.9 percent win rate.
The first two weeks of the season saw this double-digit trend start with the Chiefs covering as 16-point underdogs at the Pats (NE 17-10) and the Bears getting the money as a 10 1/2-point dog at the Colts (Bears 29-13) in Week 1 followed by the Raiders (+10) covering at the Bills (Buffalo 24-23) in Week 2.
Week 3 saw two more big numbers fail to cover when the Giants (-13) only beat the Bengals,
26-23, and the Patriots, a 12 1/2-point favorite, getting beat outright by the Dolphins, 38-13.
The Redskins (+400 Moneyline), a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys, also won outright in Week 4, 26-24. Then in Week 5 Dallas again fell as a big double-digit favorite (-16) to the Bengals as 16-point chalks (Cowboys 31-22).
Last weekend, the trend jumped to 9-0 ATS when the 13-point favorite Vikings eked out a last-minute win over the Lions (12-10), and the Redskins, an 11 1/2-point favorite, were upset by the then-undefeated Rams, 19-17.
Records reveal that over the past six years (2002-2008), there have been 177 instances in the NFL where teams closed as 10-point favorites (Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook).
In those 177 games, the underdog had covered 93 times (52.5%), the favorite 80 times(45%) and four of the games pushed (2.3%). Alot of professional gamblers will automatically plug in a double-digit dog and just bet them on the mega-trend- said that he wouldn't be surprised if the double-digit favorites didn't start doing a little covering of their own and revert back to that statistical mean.
The so-caled "regression to the mean" hypothesis suggests everything evens out in the long fun: coin flips, dice rolls and, apprarently, double-digit favorites.
Only time will tell.
:shrug:
