2 Star Selection
James Madison (+16 points or more) 69 GEORGE MASON 78
24-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
George Mason is coming off an upset win at NC Wilmington, which should result in a flat effort tonight as a big favorite against a struggling James Madison team that has won only 1 of their last 8 games. The Patriots apply to a very negative 22-65 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on Wednesday?s upset win. The problem is the line is too low, considering that my ratings favor George Mason by 18 points in this game. My analysis gives James Madison a solid 58% chance at covering at +16 points, and that is the number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet. So, I?ll take 16 points or more with James Madison in a 2-Star Best Bet and I?ll just consider the Monarchs an opinion if the line stays lower than 16 points.
3 Star Selection
SOUTH CAROLINA 69 Lsu 52
24-Jan-04 04:30 PM Pacific Time
LSU has a history of beating up on bad teams in their non-conference schedule and then struggling in SEC play. This season, the Tigers started 12-1 but have now lost two straight conference games as favorites. LSU coach John Brady has had a tough time stopping the downward slide in his tenure, as his team is just 15-32-1 ATS after a game in which they lost straight up and to the pointspread, including 6-18 ATS in games away from home and 2-13 ATS after an upset loss. South Carolina, meanwhile, tends to play better in conference play under coach Dave Odom and the Gamecocks enter this game on a 3 game win and cover streak. That success is likely to continue today, as South Carolina qualifies in a 47-16-1 ATS strong home court momentum situation. Odom?s team has been unbelievable on the defensive side of the floor, allowing just 35% shooting for the season while forcing 18 turnovers per game. Facing South Carolina?s defense doesn?t sound like a remedy for an LSU team that is struggling offensively in conference play (41% FG). My ratings favor South Carolina by 8 ? points in this game and they look like a solid play tonight.
Downgrade South Carolina to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points.
2 Star Selection
Wichita State (-6 points or less) 79 EVANSVILLE 66
24-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Evansville is now just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog or pick and they once again qualify in a negative 17-44-1 ATS weak home court situation (we won going against them with Northern Iowa on Wednesday). Wichita State looks like the class of the Missouri Valley Conference after whipping Creighton during the week and my ratings favor the Shockers by 6 ? points if guard Fridge Holman plays and by 5 ? points if he does not (he?s listed as questionable). I?ll lay 6 points or less with Wichita State in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Wichita State to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 4 points or less.
2 Star Selection
NORTHERN IOWA (-11 points or less) 72 Bradley 54
24-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Bradley finally managed to cover a pointspread in their 7 point loss as a 9 point underdog at SW Missouri State on Wednesday, but the Braves are still just 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS in 8 games since leading scorer Phillip Gilbert (20.2 ppg) was lost to injury. Bradley has made just 35% of their shots in those 8 games and they are playing considerably worse than they were prior to Gilbert?s absence (they started the season 7-0 ATS). Not only are the oddsmakers making no adjustments for Bradley?s current state, but a fair line on this game would be Northern Iowa by 13 points if I used games for the entire season rather than just Bradley?s 8 games without Gilbert (a fair line of 18 points using those 8 games only). Northern Iowa is on a roll, with 4 straight spread wins and an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 lined games. I don?t see the experienced Panthers letting up in this game and they?d qualify in an incredible 57-16-2 ATS situation if they were favored by 10 points or less. Northern Iowa has been beating up on mediocre and bad teams this season and they are have now covered 11 straight games when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .666 ? from game 6 on. Northern Iowa has a solid 58% chance of covering as an 11 point favorite based solely on the line value and they?d be a great play at -10 points or less with the high-percentage situation kicking in.
Upgrade Northern Iowa to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 10 points or less.
2 Star Selection
COLORADO STATE (-3 points or better) 80 San Diego State 70
24-Jan-04 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Colorado State has struggled lately with star 7 foot center Matt Nelson hobbled with a bad ankle. Nelson missed all but 16 minutes in a horrible 3 game stretch against Montana State, Air Force and BYU (0- 3 SU and ATS), but he returned to score 17 points with 3 blocks in their loss to Utah on Monday night. With 4 more days off, Nelson should be able to play his normal allotment of minutes tonight and that will make a big difference in Colorado State?s performance. The Rams have played much better at home this season and it?s especially tough for teams from sea level to play in the thin air at this high altitude location. Colorado State applies in a very good 102-49-1 ATS high altitude home angle and a 37-6 ATS subset of that angle applies. My ratings, with Nelson playing his normal minutes, favors Colorado State by 2 ? points and I?ll lay up to 3 points with the Rams tonight.
2 Star Selection
Idaho (+2 points or more) 71 FULLERTON STATE 66
24-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Fullerton State has been a horrible home team in recent years and they are just 1-13 ATS in conference home games when not getting more than 1 point (as 1 point dog, pick, or favored), including two straight up losses this season as a favorite on this floor. Fullerton also applies to a negative 20-70-1 ATS weak home court situation tonight. Idaho has traditionally started slowly and then played better once the Big West season rolls around. In fact, the Vandals are just 9-24 ATS in non-conference games and a decent 40-36-1 ATS in conference play. Idaho is particularly good on the road in Big West games, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 such games, including 9-2 ATS when visiting a losing team. My ratings favor Fullerton by 3 ? points and I?m willing to give up some line value to make this play because of the general situation and team trends that favor Idaho. I?ll take 2 points or more with Idaho in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Idaho to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 4 points or more.
2 Star Selection
Usc (+16 points or more) 71 STANFORD 80
24-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
This looks like a flat spot for the 2nd ranked Cardinal, after beating UCLA here just 2 nights ago. Big favorites tend to relax if they won just 2 night before and Stanford is just 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 15 points or more in that scenario. The Cardinal also qualify in a very negative 16-65-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that has won with the big dog all 3 times this season. I?m not thrilled with the line in this game since my ratings favor Stanford by 19 points, but the situation is so strong that giving up a few points in line value is not enough to keep me off the big underdog. My analysis calculates a solid 61% chance of USC covering at +16 points (with the situation factored in) and that?s the number at which I?ll take that Trojans.
Upgrade USC to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 18 points or more.
James Madison (+16 points or more) 69 GEORGE MASON 78
24-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
George Mason is coming off an upset win at NC Wilmington, which should result in a flat effort tonight as a big favorite against a struggling James Madison team that has won only 1 of their last 8 games. The Patriots apply to a very negative 22-65 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on Wednesday?s upset win. The problem is the line is too low, considering that my ratings favor George Mason by 18 points in this game. My analysis gives James Madison a solid 58% chance at covering at +16 points, and that is the number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet. So, I?ll take 16 points or more with James Madison in a 2-Star Best Bet and I?ll just consider the Monarchs an opinion if the line stays lower than 16 points.
3 Star Selection
SOUTH CAROLINA 69 Lsu 52
24-Jan-04 04:30 PM Pacific Time
LSU has a history of beating up on bad teams in their non-conference schedule and then struggling in SEC play. This season, the Tigers started 12-1 but have now lost two straight conference games as favorites. LSU coach John Brady has had a tough time stopping the downward slide in his tenure, as his team is just 15-32-1 ATS after a game in which they lost straight up and to the pointspread, including 6-18 ATS in games away from home and 2-13 ATS after an upset loss. South Carolina, meanwhile, tends to play better in conference play under coach Dave Odom and the Gamecocks enter this game on a 3 game win and cover streak. That success is likely to continue today, as South Carolina qualifies in a 47-16-1 ATS strong home court momentum situation. Odom?s team has been unbelievable on the defensive side of the floor, allowing just 35% shooting for the season while forcing 18 turnovers per game. Facing South Carolina?s defense doesn?t sound like a remedy for an LSU team that is struggling offensively in conference play (41% FG). My ratings favor South Carolina by 8 ? points in this game and they look like a solid play tonight.
Downgrade South Carolina to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points.
2 Star Selection
Wichita State (-6 points or less) 79 EVANSVILLE 66
24-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Evansville is now just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog or pick and they once again qualify in a negative 17-44-1 ATS weak home court situation (we won going against them with Northern Iowa on Wednesday). Wichita State looks like the class of the Missouri Valley Conference after whipping Creighton during the week and my ratings favor the Shockers by 6 ? points if guard Fridge Holman plays and by 5 ? points if he does not (he?s listed as questionable). I?ll lay 6 points or less with Wichita State in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Wichita State to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 4 points or less.
2 Star Selection
NORTHERN IOWA (-11 points or less) 72 Bradley 54
24-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Bradley finally managed to cover a pointspread in their 7 point loss as a 9 point underdog at SW Missouri State on Wednesday, but the Braves are still just 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS in 8 games since leading scorer Phillip Gilbert (20.2 ppg) was lost to injury. Bradley has made just 35% of their shots in those 8 games and they are playing considerably worse than they were prior to Gilbert?s absence (they started the season 7-0 ATS). Not only are the oddsmakers making no adjustments for Bradley?s current state, but a fair line on this game would be Northern Iowa by 13 points if I used games for the entire season rather than just Bradley?s 8 games without Gilbert (a fair line of 18 points using those 8 games only). Northern Iowa is on a roll, with 4 straight spread wins and an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 lined games. I don?t see the experienced Panthers letting up in this game and they?d qualify in an incredible 57-16-2 ATS situation if they were favored by 10 points or less. Northern Iowa has been beating up on mediocre and bad teams this season and they are have now covered 11 straight games when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .666 ? from game 6 on. Northern Iowa has a solid 58% chance of covering as an 11 point favorite based solely on the line value and they?d be a great play at -10 points or less with the high-percentage situation kicking in.
Upgrade Northern Iowa to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 10 points or less.
2 Star Selection
COLORADO STATE (-3 points or better) 80 San Diego State 70
24-Jan-04 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Colorado State has struggled lately with star 7 foot center Matt Nelson hobbled with a bad ankle. Nelson missed all but 16 minutes in a horrible 3 game stretch against Montana State, Air Force and BYU (0- 3 SU and ATS), but he returned to score 17 points with 3 blocks in their loss to Utah on Monday night. With 4 more days off, Nelson should be able to play his normal allotment of minutes tonight and that will make a big difference in Colorado State?s performance. The Rams have played much better at home this season and it?s especially tough for teams from sea level to play in the thin air at this high altitude location. Colorado State applies in a very good 102-49-1 ATS high altitude home angle and a 37-6 ATS subset of that angle applies. My ratings, with Nelson playing his normal minutes, favors Colorado State by 2 ? points and I?ll lay up to 3 points with the Rams tonight.
2 Star Selection
Idaho (+2 points or more) 71 FULLERTON STATE 66
24-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Fullerton State has been a horrible home team in recent years and they are just 1-13 ATS in conference home games when not getting more than 1 point (as 1 point dog, pick, or favored), including two straight up losses this season as a favorite on this floor. Fullerton also applies to a negative 20-70-1 ATS weak home court situation tonight. Idaho has traditionally started slowly and then played better once the Big West season rolls around. In fact, the Vandals are just 9-24 ATS in non-conference games and a decent 40-36-1 ATS in conference play. Idaho is particularly good on the road in Big West games, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 such games, including 9-2 ATS when visiting a losing team. My ratings favor Fullerton by 3 ? points and I?m willing to give up some line value to make this play because of the general situation and team trends that favor Idaho. I?ll take 2 points or more with Idaho in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Idaho to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 4 points or more.
2 Star Selection
Usc (+16 points or more) 71 STANFORD 80
24-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
This looks like a flat spot for the 2nd ranked Cardinal, after beating UCLA here just 2 nights ago. Big favorites tend to relax if they won just 2 night before and Stanford is just 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 15 points or more in that scenario. The Cardinal also qualify in a very negative 16-65-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that has won with the big dog all 3 times this season. I?m not thrilled with the line in this game since my ratings favor Stanford by 19 points, but the situation is so strong that giving up a few points in line value is not enough to keep me off the big underdog. My analysis calculates a solid 61% chance of USC covering at +16 points (with the situation factored in) and that?s the number at which I?ll take that Trojans.
Upgrade USC to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 18 points or more.
