here's a copy of dr bobs thoughts..jr capper
Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-5.5) 24 San Francisco 13
The 49ers have now lost 9 straight games to the pointspread and I am inclined to think that negative streak will continue on the road against the defensively dominating Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed a league best 4.2 yards per play (against teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense) and no team was close to matching that sort of stinginess on defense this season. The 49ers, despite their many weapons, are just an average offensive team that has averaged 5.4 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 5.3 yppl on defense. The 49ers' offense has not been able to run on teams that defend the run as well as Tampa Bay, as they averaged just 3.6 ypr in games against Oakland and Dallas, who both allowed 3.8 ypr for the season and who are the only teams that San Francisco faced that give up less than 4.0 ypr. The Niners also did not fare well against teams that defend the pass well, managing just 4.5 yards per pass play against Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington and Denver - the only teams the Niners faced that allowed 5.5 yppp or less for the season. Those teams combine to allow an average of 5.2 yppp on defense and the Buccaneers' pass defense is considerably better than that (4.5 yppp allowed). San Francisco will have a tough time putting points on the board in this game and last week's high scoring second half will only serve to put the Bucs' defense on alert, which will likely result in a more focused effort. In fact, road teams are just 7-23-1 ATS in the playoffs if they are coming off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and only 2-16-1 ATS in that role if they have a win percentage of less than .690 (11-5 record or worse).
I feel pretty confident that the Niners' offense will be stopped, as the Bucs allowed 14 points or less in 10 of their 16 games this season and it would be more games than that if I didn't include touchdowns scored by their opponents' defense and special teams. The key is Tampa's offense, which I feel will be fine with Brad Johnson back at quarterback. The Bucs are worse than average running the ball (3.8 ypr against teams that allow 4.2 ypr), but Brad Johnson averaged 6.2 yards per pass play this year (against teams that allow 6.0 yppp) and Tampa Bay averaged a decent 5.2 yppl when he was in the game (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl). San Francisco is a bit banged up defensively and the Niners are just average on that side of the ball for the season, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that average 5.3 yppl. Tampa's average offense ought to score a decent number of points at home against San Francisco's average defense and the result should be a comfortable victory at home. The Niners have had no success on the road (12-26 ATS) in recent years, especially against good teams, and they are now 0-12 straight up and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games when visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .600. The Buccaneers are good at home, but not in this price range. Tampa Bay is only 1-10 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher, including 1-2 ATS this season. However, one of those 2 spread losses in that role this season was a game against Pittsburgh when the pathetic Shaun King was at quarterback and the Bucs did win by comfortable margins here against decent or good teams St. Louis (26- 14), Cleveland (17-3), Carolina (23-10), Green Bay (21-7) and Atlanta (34-10). I have a few other playoff angles that favor both sides and overall the technical analysis is a wash. However, my mathematical model favors the Bucs by 8 ? points and I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion in this game.
Tampa Bay is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-5.5) 27 NY Jets 16
As impressive as the Jets have looked the last two weeks in blowout wins over the Packers (42-17) and Colts (41-0), try not to overreact. Playoff road teams that scored more than 35 points in their last game are just 7-23-1 ATS (only 2-16-1 ATS if they have a record of 11-5 or worse) and road teams that allowed less than 7 points in their last game are just 5-17-1 ATS. Teams that scored more than 35 points and allowed less than 7 points in their last game are 0-7 ATS in post-season games away from home, losing by an average score of 18-31. Oakland, meanwhile, qualifies in a 40-10 ATS playoff home team situation, so the technical analysis certainly points towards a comfortable Raiders' victory. However, the pointspread seems a bit too high to make the Raiders a Best Bet in this game, as my mathematical model favors Oakland by just 1 ? points in this game thanks mostly to a 5 ? point edge in special teams for the Jets. If the Raiders can avoid giving up a score due to special teams, they ought to be able to cover the number in this game, as they hold the edges on both sides of the ball. Oakland's offense has averaged a very impressive 5.8 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense) and they hold the advantage against a Jets' defense that is good, but not great. New York has allowed 5.4 yppl for the season (against teams that average 5.4 yppl), but that number is misleading given their consistently good defensive performances in the second half of the season. In their last 11 games, the Jets have permitted just 4.8 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, but they did give up 411 total yards at 5.7 yppl here in Oakland in week 13 and I expect a similar result in this game.
Oakland's defense has also played better since mid-season, allowing just 4.7 yppl since week 8 (to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) and their defense the second half of the season is better than the Jets' offense, which has averaged 5.7 yppl with Pennington at quarterback (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl). The Raiders held the Jets to just 274 yards (but at a decent 5.4 yppl) in their 26-20 regular season win, but Oakland is even better defensively now that both starting cornerbacks will be back on the field (James returned a couple of weeks ago and Charles Woodson is probable) and I think they'll do a decent job of defending Pennington in this game while stuffing the run. The Jets are actually a below average running team (4.1 ypr against teams that allow 4.3 ypr) and the Raiders have given up just 3.6 ypr in their last 9 games to teams that combine to average a healthy 4.6 ypr on offense for the season. The Raiders are the side to take despite the lack of line value and I'll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game based on the strong situations favoring them and their superiority from the line of scrimmage. Let's just hope that the Jets' special teams don't interfere.
Oakland is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
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Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-5.5) 24 San Francisco 13
The 49ers have now lost 9 straight games to the pointspread and I am inclined to think that negative streak will continue on the road against the defensively dominating Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed a league best 4.2 yards per play (against teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense) and no team was close to matching that sort of stinginess on defense this season. The 49ers, despite their many weapons, are just an average offensive team that has averaged 5.4 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 5.3 yppl on defense. The 49ers' offense has not been able to run on teams that defend the run as well as Tampa Bay, as they averaged just 3.6 ypr in games against Oakland and Dallas, who both allowed 3.8 ypr for the season and who are the only teams that San Francisco faced that give up less than 4.0 ypr. The Niners also did not fare well against teams that defend the pass well, managing just 4.5 yards per pass play against Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington and Denver - the only teams the Niners faced that allowed 5.5 yppp or less for the season. Those teams combine to allow an average of 5.2 yppp on defense and the Buccaneers' pass defense is considerably better than that (4.5 yppp allowed). San Francisco will have a tough time putting points on the board in this game and last week's high scoring second half will only serve to put the Bucs' defense on alert, which will likely result in a more focused effort. In fact, road teams are just 7-23-1 ATS in the playoffs if they are coming off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and only 2-16-1 ATS in that role if they have a win percentage of less than .690 (11-5 record or worse).
I feel pretty confident that the Niners' offense will be stopped, as the Bucs allowed 14 points or less in 10 of their 16 games this season and it would be more games than that if I didn't include touchdowns scored by their opponents' defense and special teams. The key is Tampa's offense, which I feel will be fine with Brad Johnson back at quarterback. The Bucs are worse than average running the ball (3.8 ypr against teams that allow 4.2 ypr), but Brad Johnson averaged 6.2 yards per pass play this year (against teams that allow 6.0 yppp) and Tampa Bay averaged a decent 5.2 yppl when he was in the game (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl). San Francisco is a bit banged up defensively and the Niners are just average on that side of the ball for the season, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that average 5.3 yppl. Tampa's average offense ought to score a decent number of points at home against San Francisco's average defense and the result should be a comfortable victory at home. The Niners have had no success on the road (12-26 ATS) in recent years, especially against good teams, and they are now 0-12 straight up and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games when visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .600. The Buccaneers are good at home, but not in this price range. Tampa Bay is only 1-10 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher, including 1-2 ATS this season. However, one of those 2 spread losses in that role this season was a game against Pittsburgh when the pathetic Shaun King was at quarterback and the Bucs did win by comfortable margins here against decent or good teams St. Louis (26- 14), Cleveland (17-3), Carolina (23-10), Green Bay (21-7) and Atlanta (34-10). I have a few other playoff angles that favor both sides and overall the technical analysis is a wash. However, my mathematical model favors the Bucs by 8 ? points and I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion in this game.
Tampa Bay is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-5.5) 27 NY Jets 16
As impressive as the Jets have looked the last two weeks in blowout wins over the Packers (42-17) and Colts (41-0), try not to overreact. Playoff road teams that scored more than 35 points in their last game are just 7-23-1 ATS (only 2-16-1 ATS if they have a record of 11-5 or worse) and road teams that allowed less than 7 points in their last game are just 5-17-1 ATS. Teams that scored more than 35 points and allowed less than 7 points in their last game are 0-7 ATS in post-season games away from home, losing by an average score of 18-31. Oakland, meanwhile, qualifies in a 40-10 ATS playoff home team situation, so the technical analysis certainly points towards a comfortable Raiders' victory. However, the pointspread seems a bit too high to make the Raiders a Best Bet in this game, as my mathematical model favors Oakland by just 1 ? points in this game thanks mostly to a 5 ? point edge in special teams for the Jets. If the Raiders can avoid giving up a score due to special teams, they ought to be able to cover the number in this game, as they hold the edges on both sides of the ball. Oakland's offense has averaged a very impressive 5.8 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense) and they hold the advantage against a Jets' defense that is good, but not great. New York has allowed 5.4 yppl for the season (against teams that average 5.4 yppl), but that number is misleading given their consistently good defensive performances in the second half of the season. In their last 11 games, the Jets have permitted just 4.8 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, but they did give up 411 total yards at 5.7 yppl here in Oakland in week 13 and I expect a similar result in this game.
Oakland's defense has also played better since mid-season, allowing just 4.7 yppl since week 8 (to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) and their defense the second half of the season is better than the Jets' offense, which has averaged 5.7 yppl with Pennington at quarterback (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl). The Raiders held the Jets to just 274 yards (but at a decent 5.4 yppl) in their 26-20 regular season win, but Oakland is even better defensively now that both starting cornerbacks will be back on the field (James returned a couple of weeks ago and Charles Woodson is probable) and I think they'll do a decent job of defending Pennington in this game while stuffing the run. The Jets are actually a below average running team (4.1 ypr against teams that allow 4.3 ypr) and the Raiders have given up just 3.6 ypr in their last 9 games to teams that combine to average a healthy 4.6 ypr on offense for the season. The Raiders are the side to take despite the lack of line value and I'll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game based on the strong situations favoring them and their superiority from the line of scrimmage. Let's just hope that the Jets' special teams don't interfere.
Oakland is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
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