draft pool thoughts?

[thewinder]

i'm not sure whether i should be using this or the general forum for this thread, so MJ, move if necessary. every year, myself and 7 others hold a draft for some pretty big cash. the way it works is, everyone drafts 8 teams. in the first round, each win is worth 1 point. if your team is a higher seed and wins, you get the one point and then the difference between the seeds as additional points. i have had pretty good succes (winning twice in five years) by selecting mostly 10-13 seeds, obviously looking for 2 or 3 to pull some upsets in the first and second rounds. the points for wins double every round, so for second round, 2 points, 3rd round 4 points and so on.

so my question to you all is, who do you think are the 3 or 4 best 10-13 seeds that can pull off 1 or 2 wins in the tourny?

so far, i'm looking at:

#11 western michigan - see them winning one, maybe two
#13 e tenn st - see them winning one
#10 so carolina - really like the way they are playing right now - see them winning maybe three
# 13 illinois chicago - if they could some how beat kansas, they could win another in this bracket
#12 byu - araujo is tough, but if they beat syracuse, maryland is hot

thoughts and input are welcome.

thewinder
thoughts

 

[gman2]

to me, i dont think theres any question the best double-digit seed is louisville. the seed they got was ridiculous. i know they stumbled down the stretch, but to go from #3 in the country to a #10 seed in the tournament is preposterous. i think we could see louisville in the elite 8 vs duke.

out of the teams you listed, in terms of how good the teams are, i would say:

byu
east tennessee
west michigan
south carolina
ill-chicago

but in terms of the teams with the best chances to advance because of their bracket:

east tennessee has a reasonable shot to get to the sweet 16 but theyd face duke and get bounced

byu is the same way. they could win both games the first weekend (vs.syracuse and maryland) but then would likely face stanford and get bounced (although it would be interesting because araujo's size could make it interesting)

western michigan is very likely (in my opinion) to win their first two games but then would get smashed by uconn (would have zero chance because of their weak interior)

im getting cold feet on illinois-chicago. i was a big supporter of them during horizon play but im not sure they can get by kansas in the first round in kansas city. deck stacked against em there

south carolina is a power conference team thats used to top level competition and is well coached. so theyve got that going for them. but thier opening weekend games are really tough. dont see them getting by the first or second game

i really think louisville is an elite 8 and possible final 4 team as a sleeper

 

[thewinder]

thanks a bunch for the input. i had a feeling you would respond. it's a fun and different pool than most. louisville caught my eye, but the way xavier has been playing, they looked like a decent stumbling block for the cards. i agree though, they beat xavier and they could go to the sweet 16, possibly the elite 8 in that bracket. i'm not sold on miss st, texas or no carolina.

all it takes for teams like etsu, is to win twice. my strategy in the past, for my winning years, has worked this way: i usually get a boatload of points in the first two rounds. it's ok if they don't win three, two is usually enough. the first two rounds, i grab what i think to be final four teams, then grab 10-13 the rest of the way.

if you think of anything else, feel free to add. for now, i think i'll take ill chicago out of the running.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Gman I can certainly see LVIlle winning 2. I just cant see them getting past the UNC-Texas winner, but with Pitino on the sidelines anything is possible. But, like Texas, they better quit talking about how good they can play and actually go out there and do it.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Note: 9 teams have gone 4-0 to win conference tourney and get in NCAA. Only 2 won 1st round games, None went to Sweet 16.

 

[Blackman]

Note: 9 teams have gone 4-0 to win conference tourney and get in NCAA. Only 2 won 1st round games, None went to Sweet 16.

Great stat, thanks.

 

[gman2]

But, like Texas, they better quit talking about how good they can play and actually go out there and do it.

very true. point well taken

 

[thewinder]

well gman2, the draft was last night. ended up getting the 1st pick overall. wasn't happy with that and no one wanted to trade their spot. my plan did not go as hoped, but i think i ended up with some solid teams. here's the teams in order of which i drafted them.

uconn
louisville
georgia tech
so carolina
illinois
bama
memphis - to cover so carolina - i really like the gamecocks, but feel memphis is the main stumbling block for them. if they win, i fell they could win three
monmouth - last pick of the draft

let me know what you think.

 

[thewinder]

bump

bump

bumped this up, NOT THAT ANYONE CARES, but i won my pool, $2,800. bama and georgia tech pretty much carried me. the bama win over stanford was huge, put me in the lead for good. georgia tech clinched it yesterday.

gl to everyone in the FF

thewinder

 

[lenniethelock]

congrats,nice hit