Eagles Monday Night

[IE]

This is a BIG line. Especially given that the Eagles are starting a backup QB and just lost their starting MLB and defensive play-caller. So what gives?

The Panthers are 3-5-1, and have a point differential of -59 points. That's bad (it ranks 26th in the league). Since starting the season 2-0, and picking up a lot of hype in the process, Carolina has managed just 1 win, against the Bears at home. Some attention has to be paid to the fact that the Panthers have had a very tough schedule. Here are their losses:
Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans
Those teams are a combined 25-17. Of course, Carolina has lost those games by margins of 18, 28, 21, 4, and 18. Basically, they've shown no indication they belong among the top half of the league.

Let's see what DVOA has to say.
Eagles Overall DVOA: 14% (6th)
Panthers Overall DVOA: -11.8% (26th)
Eagles Offense DVOA: -2.6% (18th)
Panthers Defense DVOA: 6.4% (24th)
Eagles Defense DVOA: -7.1% (8th)
Panthers Offense DVOA: -5.0% (20th)
The Eagles are still 1st in STs DVOA, the Panthers rank 18th.
As is clear from the numbers above, the Eagles are the MUCH better team by DVOA. I'm not that excited to see Mark Sanchez start, but since he has to, this is a pretty good time to do it. Opponent QBs have a rating of 97.4 against the Panthers this season.

Opponents in common- Unfortunately, the Eagles have not played any of the same teams as the Panthers. That means we're missing a valuable piece of information regarding relative strength.

Score Projection -
Out of the teams the Eagles have played, the Panthers defense ranks a little below Washington and the Giants, and a little above St. Louis. Against those teams, the Eagles scored 37, 27, and 34 points. That puts us around 32 points. The Eagles are averaging 29.1 ppg thus far, so scoring a FG more than that against a bad defense isn't exactly a stretch. Mark Sanchez worries me a bit, and not necessarily because I don't think he can play well. Regardless of your feelings about him, there's no question he presents a major risk factor. So 32 points seems reasonable, but with a backup QB, it's really hard to have a lot of confidence in the projection.
Of the Panthers' opponents, the Eagles rank a bit below the Bengals. Against them, the Panthers allowed 37 points. In fact, the Panthers have managed to hold their opponents below 24 points just 3 times this year: against the Bucs and Lions in the first two weeks, and against the Seahawks two weeks ago. Overall, the Panthers are allowing an average of 26.2 ppg. In other words, the Eagles should be able to score a fair amount. However, I don't trust them to put up close to a full TD more than the Panthers are allowing on average (to a lot of really good teams). Given that, I'm dialing the Eagles expectation back to 28 points.

From the other side, the Panthers offense ranks most similarly to the Giants, against whom the Eagles allowed 0 points. The next closest opponents by DVOA are Washington (Carolina is a bit worse) and San Francisco and Arizona (Carolina is a bit better). Against those teams, the Eagles allowed 34, 26, and 24 points. That puts us at 27-28 points. However, the Panthers are averaging just 19.7 points per game overall. The Eagles have a good defense. Basically, I think DVOA is overrating the Panthers offense here.
If we view it from the other perspective, the Eagles defense ranks most similarly to Baltimore (a bit better), and is also close to Seattle (a little worse). Against Baltimore, the panthers scored just 10 points. Against Seattle, they scored just 9. Now we have a problem. Our two estimates are completely different. On average, the Eagles are allowing 22.1 ppg, so I'm inclined to skew closer to that amount. All told, I'm setting the Panthers expected output at 20-21 points.
That gives us a final projection of Eagles 28, Panthers 20-21. The line is 7, so we're very close. On balance, the Eagles look like the slightly better pick, but remember what I said about Sanchez. Him playing puts a lot of additional expected variance in the game. In other words, be careful with this one.

Even more bad news: the Over/Under is 48, meaning we're right on target there as well.

The Eagles are hitting the over pretty consistently, this one might be tough.


--by bleedinggreen.

 

[IE]

[h=1]Carolina Panthers hope to slow Eagles? fast-break offense[/h]
Transition defense is a topic usually reserved for conversations about the NBA or college basketball.
But there?s nothing usual about the go-fast offense Chip Kelly has brought from Oregon to the NFL.


If the Carolina Panthers are to snap a four-game winless streak and avoid dropping further into the abyss known as the NFC South, they?ll have to figure out a way to slow the Philadelphia Eagles? offense Monday night at Lincoln Financial Field.


Panthers receiver Jason Avant knows the difficult task the Panthers (3-5-1) face. Avant was with the Eagles (6-2) last season when Kelly made a successful ? and quick ? transition from the college ranks, with the emphasis on quick.
?If you can stay assignment-pure and not give in to fatigue, you?ll be fine. But those teams that are weak-willed and forget things when they?re tired, it?s going to be challenging,? Avant said. ?So glad we?re not that team.?


The Panthers haven?t played in 11 days, dating to a 28-10 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 30. The extra rest could come in handy against a Philadelphia team that averages 72.1 offensive plays a game, second behind the Indianapolis Colts? 74.
Over the past three games, the Eagles have averaged 79.3 plays, the most in the NFL over that span.
Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez, who will make his first start since 2012 in place of injured Nick Foles, used a basketball analogy when describing Kelly?s offense.



?It?s like a fast break in basketball, and the quarterback is the point guard and you just have to get rid of it and dish it to the right guy,? Sanchez said.
Foles dished it to the right guys most of last season, earning a Pro Bowl berth after throwing 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions as the Eagles went 10-6 and won the NFC East.
But the Panthers are hoping Sanchez will continue his habit of giving the ball to the wrong team. Sanchez, a former Southern Cal quarterback who was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two seasons.
But he led the NFL with 52 turnovers from 2011 through 2012, with back-to-back 26-turnover seasons. Sanchez had 20 interceptions as a rookie, then he threw 18 in both 2011 and ?12.
?He has had a reputation for that. But he?s in this league for a reason. So we can?t rest on our laurels and think he?s just going to go out there and throw us the ball,? Panthers free safety Thomas DeCoud said. ?We have to go out and make our plays and be where we need to be.?
Coach Ron Rivera said the Panthers didn?t prepare for Sanchez as much as they practiced getting ready for what the Eagles do ? and how fast they do it.


Rivera said lots of teams, including the Panthers, run the bubble screens to wide receivers and some of the zone-read plays used by the Eagles. But the pace with which Philadelphia plays ? not huddling, using quick snap counts and making it difficult for defenses to rotate in fresh players ? is the challenging part in trying to stop Kelly?s offense.


?It?s everything that everybody else is doing right now. It?s just that he?s doing it a different tempo. He?s doing it a different pace,? Rivera said. ?Also, because of the players he has ? it?s a solid offense.?
Eagles running back LeSean McCoy is the NFL?s fourth-leading rusher with 622 yards on 161 carries. Jeremy Maclin, who has replaced DeSean Jackson as the Eagles? primary deep threat, is among the league leaders with a 17.6 yards-per-catch average. Maclin and Jackson, who signed with Washington after the Eagles cut him in March, are the only players in the league with five catches of 50 yards or more.


But Philadelphia can strike quickly. Since Kelly took over for Andy Reid last year, the Eagles have an NFL-best 138 plays of at least 20 yards, including 25 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, which ranks second over that span.
Avant said the long running plays are the product of defensive linemen getting gassed.
?They run it a lot. So when the D-line is tired, that?s when they can keep pounding. Before you know it, they have a 20- or 30-yard run. And it just happens like that,? said Avant, snapping his fingers.
Kelly, who last year joined Barry Switzer as the only coaches in NFL history to win division titles in their first season, said tiring out defenses is not the Eagles? main objective.
?That?s not our goal. That?s never been our goal,? Kelly said. ?Our goal is to find a productive way to score points on the offensive side of the ball.?
The Eagles are third in the league in total offense (409.2 yards a game) and fourth in scoring offense (29.2 points). In Kelly?s first season, the Eagles set team records for points (442), net yards (6,676), touchdowns (53), passing yards (4,406) and fewest turnovers (19).
They?ve surpassed last year?s turnover total, with 21 giveaways (second behind the Jacksonville Jaguars? 22).
And if getting defenses winded isn?t the Eagles? stated goal, it?s certainly a byproduct ? as Panthers defensive tackle Star Lotulelei can attest.
Lotulelei was a rookie playing his second exhibition last summer when the Panthers lost 14-9 at Philadelphia. Lotulelei said the game was one of the toughest he has played because of the Eagles? pace and the fact he still was learning his techniques.
?It wears on you,? Lotulelei said. ?But you?ve got to be strong mentally, play fast mentally and play fast physically.?
Of the Eagles? five first-half possessions in the exhibition ? when both teams had most of their starters in ? two resulted in touchdowns and three ended with turnovers.
Veteran defensive tackle Dwan Edwards believes the Panthers can force the turnover issue by stopping the running game and putting the onus on Sanchez, who was sidelined last season after shoulder surgery.
?We just want to do a good job putting it on him,? Edwards said. ?Hopefully taking out the run and making him beat us.?
Sanchez completed 15 of 22 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns after Foles left last week?s game at Houston with a broken collarbone. But Sanchez also threw two interceptions in the 31-21 win.
When DeCoud studied video of that game, he noticed the Texans wearing down during the second half when the Eagles? pace began to take a toll on Houston?s defenders. DeCoud said the key for the Panthers will be to get off the field with quick stops, particularly early in the game so they still have their legs under them in the second half.
For a Carolina defense ranked next to last in third-down efficiency, that might be easier said than done.


?If you can stymie them a couple times and keep them behind the (first down) chain, it?ll slow it down a little bit,? Avant said. ?If you allow it to get you winded and you don?t get some negative plays or some no-gain plays, it?s going to be very hard.?

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/20...-hope-to-slow.html#.VGD36_nF9dg#storylink=cpy

 

[Junior_Blazer]

Thanks for the write up!

 

[Scrapman]

OK 1st off Sanchez was a backup to back up ..

Lets not forgewt the two years with jets when he had good offense and went deep into finals while beating Tommy Boy in Newengland and Peyton IN Indy but 2rd st road game @ steelers just couldnt do it!


BIg differnce i seen bewteen folaes and Sanchez is mobility and speed

Eagles just get lucky again to face another brutally injured team Panthers defense is holier than thou and cannot stop Eagles face paced offense.

Plus with MC Coy n sproles carying the mail agisnt that Panthers run D Eagles win by 14 plus thats the number i come up with using YDS needed to score 1 point

Also that game aginst Seahwks was after laying low game before as all teams have done this year before playing Champs then after they go balls out to COVER and lose vs The Champs next game Kaboom

Raiders waxed at home a + 12 dog + 13 in one book

Panthers waxed at Home as small dog vs Saints Rams laid down vs Rival 49ers then as DOG + 7 .5 at home won thier superbowl defense drag out war squeak 2 point win 28-26 then @ KC + 7 points i didnt bother to handicap that game I made super quick hustle to MY local with $200 cash and said gimmie the Chiefs over Rams. HE said wait dont you want to know the line ? I said i know what it is is it over 21?

LOL 34- 7 crushing all hese teams who cover n lose vs Champs are losing 100% next game if they laid down game before took a dd loss

BUT i said this week NYG doggie aint got no teeth and wasnt buying that 5 dimes line NYG + 9 - 135 BS

Seattle - 9 + 110 OMG ty you 5 dimes shhhhhh do not let them know by vying off the standard -110 spread they are giftiing you with PLUS money on the favorites!

OK Panthers are mutated mess as all NFC south div winners do after winning it PERIOD.

Thier best Weapon now plays for Ravens Steve Smith

BUT he has better success with Flacco than he did with Cam.

OK one Ealge is on Panthers thats Jason Avante but Panthers O line is a sieve!

Cam has to run for 1st downs. Eagles simply send the house most downs sack him hurry him keep him off his rhythm bye byer doggie

TRENDS from Play book ... Panthers THE Good that applies none The Bad that applies NONE The UGLY

0-5-1 after Saints, Coaches corner none apply the bad is off s/u loss when favored

ATS record vs Eagles 1-3 last 4 2012 @ Eagles when reid was out of it after Death of his son
Panthers -3 WON on MNF

2009 + 2.5 at home Pathers got BBQ'd 38-10 2006 - 3 @ Eagles MNF lost s/u 27-24 2004 +9.5 @ Eagles creamated 30-8

Eagles trends now none apply vs Panthers one bad one Coches Corner 0-4 favored more than 5 points

Eagles WON s/u 1st MNF game @ Colts but really stole that game by refs non calls and calls final 4 minutes.

Paid back with no cover win vs skins - 6 and get this even - 4 no cover Eagles are 6-2

Lost at 49ers by 5 points Lost at Cards final minute by 4 points

Panthers havent played any common foes OK they cught Lions flat off huge emotional win for owner passing of Ford family... IF that was a normal win for lions at home Panthers start 0-2 panthers have not a road game since week 1 @ TB and were losing game 14-13

ahhh not sure yet on MY homies all i want to do is have Local sprots writer won up to his personal bet if Eagles COVER the spread HE shaves #3 in his head and goes out in front of Seigfreids and Roys place to have pictures taken.

Dumbest write up ever using sanchez final two years with JETS when he had no weapons at all with pourous O line that even Peyton Manning would look horrible.

Sure eagles are turning ball over but so i cam newton it's just a matter that one team will take advantage of the turn overs . Eagles are helthier Than Panthers 3 days rest aint gonna fix Panthers problems.

Cam is playing hurt so Eagles no Mercy take him out! Derek andreson is his back and Guees who was his Coach ..YUP Chip Kelly .....BUT that could be bad thing as what happend with Rams after Palmer got hurt ;in came fresh legs Stanton and blew rams away.

Funny i was predicting that happening so if it happens tonite Eagles are hard pressed to stop fresh legs Veteran BUT Anderson has no recent action at all zero nada in games I cant remeber seeing Him playing since with Browns

OK wait he has played lil bit 3 games in sept 1 in oct 1 win @ TB others all 3 losses he has

Yds424
Y/G106.0
TD4
QBRat115.0


LOL he came in when game was over @ GB scored a TD Pack put team to bed early 38-3

did nothing @ Ravens loss 38-10

6-9 71 yds
and Home VS steelers well Eagles heres YOUR Key Steelers Ran for 264 yds @ Panthers in a route!

again anderson came in last minute to score a meaningless TD 2 point attempt failed

SO Eagles dont fly in air hit him in the weak sport run the ball down thier throats wear down thier defense with 4 min drives even if all you get is FG now n then

THEN Blitz Cam alomsot every pass Play!

Eagles win 48 - 30 warm night here very lil wind game flies overs hoping Panthers score more than normal 17 or 10 in losses

 

[IE]

-- Starting right guard Trai Turner and return specialist Philly Brown are inactive for the Carolina Panthers against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.

Turner has an ankle injury while Brown has a concussion. Brown is Carolina's primary returner on kicks and punts and has a 79-yard punt return for a touchdown. He also 11 catches for 113 yards. Andrew Norwell is starting for Turner.

Running back DeAngelo Williams returns for the Panthers after missing five games with an ankle injury.

Safety Earl Wolff is a healthy inactive for the Eagles a week after starting because Nate Allen was injured.

Quarterback Nick Foles also is inactive for Philadelphia. He's out indefinitely with a broken collarbone and Mark Sanchez is starting in his place.

 

[BigFatLooza]

Mark Sanchez -7 ??? LOLOL I don't think so, Carolina +7 all day. Carolina will probably win outright.