on first glance, these games look good or are worth noting in my opinion. take it all for what its worth. some of it is just "me thinking out loud to myself. take anything you find useful and gl this weekend
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miami, florida on thursday night has blowout written all over it. i really think pittsburgh will be a very "public dog" but that line is set for a reason. a perfect comparison is washington/miami last year. washington was ranked in the top 25 and miami was laying 20+ pts to them very late in the season. publics feeling was "were backing the top 25 team GETTING 20-some points" and then miami proceeded to destroy the huskies. pitt looked good in beating virginia tech, but they (pitt) are nowhere near miami's class. as a dog player, its tough for me to consider a 20+ point favorite, but that game is absolutely miami or pass imo
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have said all i need to say about michigan/osu. i respect tressel for the job he's done but the buckeyes are still a year or two away from SERIOUSLY contending for the national title. ive never before seen a #2 team play so SCARED. has anyone noticed the bucks play "not to lose"? there is no reason for the #2 team in the nation to be needing late 4th quarter rallies to defeat wisconsin, purdue, and illinois. none. the big 10 is garbage this year, and the buckeyes should not be struggling with those teams. in 2 years, tressel will have developed a true national power. but for now, theyre as phony a #2 team as you will ever see.
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northwestern actually looks semi-appealing as a rivalry doggie. my only concern is that illinois can run the ball down northwestern's throat. but i guess everyone does that to nwestern, so its not like its a surprise. and northwestern can score a little- which makes them an appealing DD home rivalry dog. theyre on my "will consider list"
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central florida looks good in the mac. for as easily as marshall moved the ball on miami's defense, central florida will expose that miami defense even more. in terms of pure talent, this game is a pick em. factor in a little home field, then take a look at the "records" and that makes your line 4/4.5. but the knights should be able to win that game SU, and even though theyve had a week and a half to try and forget it, that marshall loss will still linger and i think theres gonna be a hangover effect. ucf is not an offense you want to face if youre not prepared
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hate laying road chalk in rivalry games, especially with teams that arent very good, but kent state is such a mess right now and pees is likely gone at seasons end that akron, who does have a good offense, is worth a look at less than a TD. its a shame, but kent state has no home field edge either. they are one of the smallest drawing division 1 schools in the country, and nobody gives two shits about them. its a shame, because that could be a good program. but with cribbs done for the year, they just cant generate any offense. these teams normally play low-scoring affairs, and i dont see akron having too much of a problem with ksu, but as is the case with akron- just when you think theyre gonna show up with a good performance, they lay an egg.
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nevada is definitely worth a look. boise numbers are still inflated, and they damn near pulled off a miracle cover on saturday even though latech moved the ball on em at will. but boise is gonna be takin everyones best shot now, and laying close to 20 points away from smurf-ville is gonna be damn tough for them. nevada will be a play, but still think public will inflate boise line to 20/21 so ill wait it out
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toledo/northern illinois is about the toughest game to cap as youll find this week in my opinion. just cant see a strong play on either side. how do you go against the hottest team in the conference in basically a pick game at home? by that same token, how do you go against a toledo team that should have great success running the ball on niu as well as a toledo team that has proven they can beat very good niu teams IN dekalb in the past. both teams playing really well the last few weeks. line movement is interesting. from 3/3.5 down to 1.5. i cant see playin either team strong at all. game should be tight and i dont see it being decided by more than 4 points one way or the other
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usc/ucla line reeks. plain and simple. ucla SHOULD be overmatched and doesnt appear to be healthy enough nor have enough depth to compete with the trojans. ive always liked carson palmer and i think hes having a great year. their defense is playing great and theyve just crusing. wouldnt it be so typical of usc to stumble one week before their huge game with notre dame? if its one thing ive learned with usc in all sports its that the are maddeningly inconsistent. on paper, they should have no problem with the bruins. i dont like ucla enough to play em, but i think ucla would be the way to go for those playin the game.
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florida state/ncsu is another damn tough game. on one hand, i think ncsu is really overrated, and they basically confirmed that with their recent play. but now i think theres been a knee-jerk reaction to north carolina state, and maybe they are worth a look this saturday. i dont like going against bowden. hes one of the coaches i respect most, but with amato having ties to fsu, he knows their style and hes proven he can pull the upset vs fsu in the past. i highly doubt the line will go "up" more than what its currently at, but if it does somehow hit 6.5 or 7, i gotta strongly consider the wolfpack.
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as crazy as it sounds, bowling green minus the million points is worth a look. and ill probably play it. its a strange play i guess. laying 30+ point chalk with a team that is off 2 tough losses. but if people really understood how bad eastern michigans football program is, they would see the logic behind considering laying 30+ pts with bgsu. emu simply has zero defense and basically no offense. bowling green can name the score, and emu should prove to be the perfect elixir and tuneup for bgsu's rivalry game big game with toledo. i actually think meyer will be looking to destroy emu and re-establish some confidence with his team that 2 weeks ago was leading the entire nation in scoring. emich is a joke, and this game could get extremely ugly.
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cincy has looked great the last 3 weeks, but east coast teams traveling to the island are always walking into potential trouble. hawaii looked pretty average vs rice last week but still got the job done on the road. actually thought the line would be higher than its current 5. cincy isnt a power conference team, so the 5 is a little surprising. the line move on this game will be interesting. might grab the 5 now and try to buy some back if the number reaches 7, which i think it might.
good luck this weekend fellas. just throwing some thoughts out there mid-week.
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miami, florida on thursday night has blowout written all over it. i really think pittsburgh will be a very "public dog" but that line is set for a reason. a perfect comparison is washington/miami last year. washington was ranked in the top 25 and miami was laying 20+ pts to them very late in the season. publics feeling was "were backing the top 25 team GETTING 20-some points" and then miami proceeded to destroy the huskies. pitt looked good in beating virginia tech, but they (pitt) are nowhere near miami's class. as a dog player, its tough for me to consider a 20+ point favorite, but that game is absolutely miami or pass imo
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have said all i need to say about michigan/osu. i respect tressel for the job he's done but the buckeyes are still a year or two away from SERIOUSLY contending for the national title. ive never before seen a #2 team play so SCARED. has anyone noticed the bucks play "not to lose"? there is no reason for the #2 team in the nation to be needing late 4th quarter rallies to defeat wisconsin, purdue, and illinois. none. the big 10 is garbage this year, and the buckeyes should not be struggling with those teams. in 2 years, tressel will have developed a true national power. but for now, theyre as phony a #2 team as you will ever see.
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northwestern actually looks semi-appealing as a rivalry doggie. my only concern is that illinois can run the ball down northwestern's throat. but i guess everyone does that to nwestern, so its not like its a surprise. and northwestern can score a little- which makes them an appealing DD home rivalry dog. theyre on my "will consider list"
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central florida looks good in the mac. for as easily as marshall moved the ball on miami's defense, central florida will expose that miami defense even more. in terms of pure talent, this game is a pick em. factor in a little home field, then take a look at the "records" and that makes your line 4/4.5. but the knights should be able to win that game SU, and even though theyve had a week and a half to try and forget it, that marshall loss will still linger and i think theres gonna be a hangover effect. ucf is not an offense you want to face if youre not prepared
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hate laying road chalk in rivalry games, especially with teams that arent very good, but kent state is such a mess right now and pees is likely gone at seasons end that akron, who does have a good offense, is worth a look at less than a TD. its a shame, but kent state has no home field edge either. they are one of the smallest drawing division 1 schools in the country, and nobody gives two shits about them. its a shame, because that could be a good program. but with cribbs done for the year, they just cant generate any offense. these teams normally play low-scoring affairs, and i dont see akron having too much of a problem with ksu, but as is the case with akron- just when you think theyre gonna show up with a good performance, they lay an egg.
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nevada is definitely worth a look. boise numbers are still inflated, and they damn near pulled off a miracle cover on saturday even though latech moved the ball on em at will. but boise is gonna be takin everyones best shot now, and laying close to 20 points away from smurf-ville is gonna be damn tough for them. nevada will be a play, but still think public will inflate boise line to 20/21 so ill wait it out
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toledo/northern illinois is about the toughest game to cap as youll find this week in my opinion. just cant see a strong play on either side. how do you go against the hottest team in the conference in basically a pick game at home? by that same token, how do you go against a toledo team that should have great success running the ball on niu as well as a toledo team that has proven they can beat very good niu teams IN dekalb in the past. both teams playing really well the last few weeks. line movement is interesting. from 3/3.5 down to 1.5. i cant see playin either team strong at all. game should be tight and i dont see it being decided by more than 4 points one way or the other
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usc/ucla line reeks. plain and simple. ucla SHOULD be overmatched and doesnt appear to be healthy enough nor have enough depth to compete with the trojans. ive always liked carson palmer and i think hes having a great year. their defense is playing great and theyve just crusing. wouldnt it be so typical of usc to stumble one week before their huge game with notre dame? if its one thing ive learned with usc in all sports its that the are maddeningly inconsistent. on paper, they should have no problem with the bruins. i dont like ucla enough to play em, but i think ucla would be the way to go for those playin the game.
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florida state/ncsu is another damn tough game. on one hand, i think ncsu is really overrated, and they basically confirmed that with their recent play. but now i think theres been a knee-jerk reaction to north carolina state, and maybe they are worth a look this saturday. i dont like going against bowden. hes one of the coaches i respect most, but with amato having ties to fsu, he knows their style and hes proven he can pull the upset vs fsu in the past. i highly doubt the line will go "up" more than what its currently at, but if it does somehow hit 6.5 or 7, i gotta strongly consider the wolfpack.
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as crazy as it sounds, bowling green minus the million points is worth a look. and ill probably play it. its a strange play i guess. laying 30+ point chalk with a team that is off 2 tough losses. but if people really understood how bad eastern michigans football program is, they would see the logic behind considering laying 30+ pts with bgsu. emu simply has zero defense and basically no offense. bowling green can name the score, and emu should prove to be the perfect elixir and tuneup for bgsu's rivalry game big game with toledo. i actually think meyer will be looking to destroy emu and re-establish some confidence with his team that 2 weeks ago was leading the entire nation in scoring. emich is a joke, and this game could get extremely ugly.
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cincy has looked great the last 3 weeks, but east coast teams traveling to the island are always walking into potential trouble. hawaii looked pretty average vs rice last week but still got the job done on the road. actually thought the line would be higher than its current 5. cincy isnt a power conference team, so the 5 is a little surprising. the line move on this game will be interesting. might grab the 5 now and try to buy some back if the number reaches 7, which i think it might.
good luck this weekend fellas. just throwing some thoughts out there mid-week.
