last time these teams squared off, was in 2014, all four games went under the total - 4-2, 6-1, 2-0, 3-0
yanks have gone OVER last 6 games: 8-6, 1-5, 1-7, 4-7, 12-4, 14-11
(also, they're activating C Gary Sanchez from DL)
cubs have gone over last 4: 5-4, 5-4, 8-3, 2-10
pitchers
Pineda last 4 starts have gone OVER, winning all 4 - first start was under, and lost (12-4, 11-5, 9-3, 8-1, 1-4)
he has given up 0, 3, 2, 1, 4 for ERs in starts
Hendricks has gone Under the L2 (2-6, 1-0, 7-4, 2-4, 11-6) in his tilts
at first glance, seeing the cubs team total set at a tempting -105 for OVER 3, i was salivating (figuring cubs bats feast on pineda) -again, at first glance, then simply seeing the -105 found me hesitate, think on
to get over three runs, you almost have to do it all against pineda, as would figure lights out once get to betances and chapman. mind you, cubs have some familiarity with chapman, as had him around last year, and maybe know some of his tendencies, to be able to help them(?, perhaps)
if you subscribe to this thinking with needing to get runs vs pineda, perhaps then, you might think entertain a 1st 5 innings OVER, which comes in at Over 1.5 at -110 for cubs, and Over 1.5 +105 for yankees.
excerpt about cubs pitchers 1st inn struggles, taken from bleacher nation (full here)
If games were played only from inning two on, the Chicago Cubs would be just about unstoppable these days.
But, you know, the first inning counts
And that?s the inning in which the Cubs have allowed a whopping 20 runs in their last 10 games (as of april 29th), a stretch in which they?ve allowed 51 runs overall. Giving up 5.1 runs per game is bad enough, but when 40% of those runs came right out of the gate? I know these Cubs can comeback, but what a tall task to ask of the bats and the bullpen every single time out.
the cubs last 6 games, since april 29th their opponents have scored in the 1st inning:
PHI: 0 (cubs win, 5-4 extras LACKEY)
PHI: 2 (cubs win 5-4 ARRIETA)
PHI: 1 (cubs win 8-3 LESTER)
PHI: 4 (phi wins 10-2 ANDERSON)
BOS: 2 (bos wins 6-2 HENDRICKS)
BOS: 0 (cubs win 7-4 LACKEY who has some familiarity with boston)
all told, by numbers (not 100%) that'd be 29 1st inning runs allowed in cubs last 16 games.
with their last game allowing 0 in a win (albeit extra inn) vs phils
so then, does any of this get us closer to a side, selection?
my gut tells me pineda does not continue pitching up to this level for another start, and due for some regression
in that line of thinking cubs ov 1.5 1st 5 sounds like play
then too, with cubs pitcher's recent struggles in first inning the, is a score in 1st inning YES seems pretty sweet, especially at +125 for todays tilt (throw in cubs penchant for getting one across plate early too, seems even sweeter)
then comes the hesitation...with lines being so generous (vegas doesnt give away free money, dontya know)
if anything, with the current streak of OVERS for yankees (6), pineda (4) and cubs (4) one 'could' surmise that an under is due soon - though again, back to the idea that this thinking lends itself to, you could too, take away that Pineda regresses and perhaps gets saddled with his 1st outing of more than 4 ers allowed? (cubs Team total over 3?)
or will it be a strikeout fest with free swingers (hicks, judge, castro, sanchez / russell, heyward, contreras (to an extent)?
starting lineups
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Aaron Hicks (S) CF
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C
4. Starlin Castro (R) 2B
5. Aaron Judge (R) RF
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B
8. Chris Carter (R) 1B
9. Michael Pineda (R) P
1. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B
5. Addison Russell (R) SS
6. Jason Heyward (L) RF
7. Willson Contreras (R) C
8. Kyle Hendricks (R) P
9. Jon Jay (L) CF
or does that free swinging-ness pay dividends, in the form of balls outta the yard? both teams live decently off the long ball, or benefit nicely from.... and lineups are loaded with swing and miss, potent hitters
alll this said, i believe the plays that are worth considering would be
score in 1st inn YES +125
as well as both team totals over 1.5 in 1st 5 innings (obviously these kind of go hand in hand with one another w/ 1st inn score play)
cubs OVER 1.5 -110
yanks OVER 1.5 +105
the only thing giving me pause is the inkling that an under for both teams, especially yankees is due, that'll keep me from going as much as id like to on these
any / all opinions, gut feelings on game, selections, thoughts, weather etc -certainly welcome
yanks have gone OVER last 6 games: 8-6, 1-5, 1-7, 4-7, 12-4, 14-11
(also, they're activating C Gary Sanchez from DL)
cubs have gone over last 4: 5-4, 5-4, 8-3, 2-10
pitchers
Pineda last 4 starts have gone OVER, winning all 4 - first start was under, and lost (12-4, 11-5, 9-3, 8-1, 1-4)
he has given up 0, 3, 2, 1, 4 for ERs in starts
Hendricks has gone Under the L2 (2-6, 1-0, 7-4, 2-4, 11-6) in his tilts
at first glance, seeing the cubs team total set at a tempting -105 for OVER 3, i was salivating (figuring cubs bats feast on pineda) -again, at first glance, then simply seeing the -105 found me hesitate, think on
to get over three runs, you almost have to do it all against pineda, as would figure lights out once get to betances and chapman. mind you, cubs have some familiarity with chapman, as had him around last year, and maybe know some of his tendencies, to be able to help them(?, perhaps)
if you subscribe to this thinking with needing to get runs vs pineda, perhaps then, you might think entertain a 1st 5 innings OVER, which comes in at Over 1.5 at -110 for cubs, and Over 1.5 +105 for yankees.
excerpt about cubs pitchers 1st inn struggles, taken from bleacher nation (full here)
If games were played only from inning two on, the Chicago Cubs would be just about unstoppable these days.
But, you know, the first inning counts
And that?s the inning in which the Cubs have allowed a whopping 20 runs in their last 10 games (as of april 29th), a stretch in which they?ve allowed 51 runs overall. Giving up 5.1 runs per game is bad enough, but when 40% of those runs came right out of the gate? I know these Cubs can comeback, but what a tall task to ask of the bats and the bullpen every single time out.
the cubs last 6 games, since april 29th their opponents have scored in the 1st inning:
PHI: 0 (cubs win, 5-4 extras LACKEY)
PHI: 2 (cubs win 5-4 ARRIETA)
PHI: 1 (cubs win 8-3 LESTER)
PHI: 4 (phi wins 10-2 ANDERSON)
BOS: 2 (bos wins 6-2 HENDRICKS)
BOS: 0 (cubs win 7-4 LACKEY who has some familiarity with boston)
all told, by numbers (not 100%) that'd be 29 1st inning runs allowed in cubs last 16 games.
with their last game allowing 0 in a win (albeit extra inn) vs phils
so then, does any of this get us closer to a side, selection?
my gut tells me pineda does not continue pitching up to this level for another start, and due for some regression
in that line of thinking cubs ov 1.5 1st 5 sounds like play
then too, with cubs pitcher's recent struggles in first inning the, is a score in 1st inning YES seems pretty sweet, especially at +125 for todays tilt (throw in cubs penchant for getting one across plate early too, seems even sweeter)
then comes the hesitation...with lines being so generous (vegas doesnt give away free money, dontya know)
if anything, with the current streak of OVERS for yankees (6), pineda (4) and cubs (4) one 'could' surmise that an under is due soon - though again, back to the idea that this thinking lends itself to, you could too, take away that Pineda regresses and perhaps gets saddled with his 1st outing of more than 4 ers allowed? (cubs Team total over 3?)
or will it be a strikeout fest with free swingers (hicks, judge, castro, sanchez / russell, heyward, contreras (to an extent)?
starting lineups
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Aaron Hicks (S) CF
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C
4. Starlin Castro (R) 2B
5. Aaron Judge (R) RF
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B
8. Chris Carter (R) 1B
9. Michael Pineda (R) P
1. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B
5. Addison Russell (R) SS
6. Jason Heyward (L) RF
7. Willson Contreras (R) C
8. Kyle Hendricks (R) P
9. Jon Jay (L) CF
or does that free swinging-ness pay dividends, in the form of balls outta the yard? both teams live decently off the long ball, or benefit nicely from.... and lineups are loaded with swing and miss, potent hitters
alll this said, i believe the plays that are worth considering would be
score in 1st inn YES +125
as well as both team totals over 1.5 in 1st 5 innings (obviously these kind of go hand in hand with one another w/ 1st inn score play)
cubs OVER 1.5 -110
yanks OVER 1.5 +105
the only thing giving me pause is the inkling that an under for both teams, especially yankees is due, that'll keep me from going as much as id like to on these
any / all opinions, gut feelings on game, selections, thoughts, weather etc -certainly welcome
