early leans...09/06

gardenweasel

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1)have to buy the half and grab hot,talented uconn-14 vs army..... on a roll since the end of last season.....manhandled indiana last week garnering over 500 total yards on offense and pretty much shutting them down.....orlovsky at qb and caulley at running back are absolute top drawer division 1 talents and,imo,this team can compete with most in the big east(miami,pitt and va tech are at another level,granted).....but my point is,this is a solid division 1 school right now....army,with some experience coming back is smallish as usual and the defense has not proven they can stop top drawer offensive talent.....my major concern is the look ahead to b.c. next week....

but,this team seems to relish showing they`ll belong in the big east next year....if they show up,they should roll...


2)washington huskies-24....as stated above,uconn just manhandled bottom feeding big 10 club indiana....and washington,with considerable experience returning from last year,8 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense....

they were manhandled by ohio st in week one....i would expect that pickett and reggie williams and the rest of that excellent receiving corps will be a bit surly after their poor start....i expect the offense to jump all over an indiana defense that allowed uconn to put up over 500 yards of total offense on them....traveling to the east coast,then over to the west coast on back to back weeks...... tough scheduling....pickett and williams need to pick it up if pickett wants a shot at the heisman....

and washington has only idaho on deck....a decent little club....but definitely not a look ahead...a stiff number...but,i`ll take the shot...it could get very ugly...

big ten pay back....


3)not actually a wager...maryland-fla st middle.....when maryland took the pipe in week one vs n.ill. i noticed that oly had a future up on fla st and maryland....fla st-9.5....i kept an eye on that...it dropped off for awhile but came back,inexplicably after the fla st walkover vs no carolina....

so it shows back up at oly at -9.5.....and i hit it extra hard thinking that it`s gonna go up like high test at an exxon station....and it`s already up to -14.5....finally did something smart...

i`m gonna take a small flyer on maryland on the moneyline when it hits the board,also.....it`s gonna be substantial....scheduling is perfect for a shot like this....maryland was in an obvious look ahead vs no. ill. ....fla st in an easy,easy game vs a bad north carolina team....it looks to easy to take fla st....never underestimate coach freidgen...he`s the goods....maryland,i believe, will be ready to give it a serious whack this week....i`m praying that bruce perry,and particularly steve sutter are ready to go...if not,so be it....

spending very,very little with the potential to make alot...maryland started poorly in the first game last year......i just like the way this one sets up.....looks like very easy meat for fla st....i like that....contrarian money line with a very good club that seems to be written off after a bad performance in a look ahead game..

4)teasing oklahoma-1.5 with auburn at -2......hate teasers.....but i just like the set up here also....am expecting the oklahoma defense to shut down bama.....stoops over young shula....

auburn is soooo talented...another loss will seriously send their season spiralling down the drain....will they fold again?...this isn`t usc.....tech struggled vs byu.....that score could have been much worse....

taking the better teams and reducing the odds a little....probably my first and last teaser of the year....

some general stuff....looking at the under in notre dame-wash st when it posts and if its reasonable..two solid defenses....both tough against the run....don`t look to be great passing offenses.....also a smaller lean to notre dame -5.5 to do what they normally do under willingham.....play "d"....play disciplined and not make mistakes.....capitalize on the inexperience of wash st qb matt kegel.....wash st ran for 300+ yards vs idaho and passed for only 98 yards....i doubt that they have that success running the ball vs notre dame.....i believe kegel will be forced to step up his game....not sure he will...n.d. with 8 starters back on a dominating "d"....

and i happen to like carlisle holiday....another year in the willingham system and he should be much better this year...

also waiting for the o/u on purdue-bowling green....unless it`s outrageous,these offenses should put points on the board....

09/02/03...adding.....pinnacle absolutely forces me to take maryland +15.....take my chances with freidgen off a nasty loss getting over 2 td`s....it may lose....but,i can`t pass it up...
more as i glom picks from other posters..


and adding utah +10(buying half)....write-up in a separate thread....

adding n tx-baylor under 41..........s car-uva under 38(bought half).... .g.l.
 
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ND2002HORNS

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gw - ND under will most likely be my strongest play of the weekend. I will do a detailed analysis later.
I agree with you UConn and Wash plays. UConn is more than legit. As for your teaser, it looks very enticing. Definitely a good spot for it. Great analysis. GL this weekend.

HORNS:D
 

Cabo

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I rarely do teasers, but I have to say That one looks good!! I throw a few dollars on! I like Auburn, and I cant see Bama staying that close OK. Thanks..Cabo...
 

Marra

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Watching Matt Kegal perform last year, I am VERY unimpressed. He and Jason Gesser hated each other, so I am guessing he didn't learn to much from him. Add in a new coach for Wazzu, at N.D. I think N.D. is looking like a nice play.
 

bear

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Great write gardenweasel

Great write gardenweasel

Initial thoughts concur..........
CT offense should dominate....
like MD as well..........

will write more on the CT game as week progresses


GL
bear
 

gardenweasel

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hawkeye

hawkeye

the more i look at it,the more i see your point....that first bowling green win over eastern ky is indicative of absolutely nothing.....purdue is a whole `nother animal....still curious to see the o/u on this...


and jeff,glad you lean in the same direction...but,maryland has a very poor history vs the noles....it`s the circumstamces that got me interested here....maryland dropped completely out of the coaches top 25 after the n.ill. loss....no respect,whatsoever....

uconn and washington...they look good to me....but,hate laying that wood...

curious to see some other threads....
 

AR182

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gw,

good writeups. but i like fla. st., who i think are on a mission to get back to where they feel they belong.

as far as conn. is concerned, they seem to be the flavor of the year, but i learned along time ago that laying heavy wood on the road is asking for trouble.


good luck with your picks.
 

gardenweasel

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makes me

makes me

very uncomfortable when i cap a game early on and it turns into a huge public play.....usually the kiss of death....
 

The Mover

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GW like the wash. pick I see cody pickett doing what he wants with IN. def. secondary which has two that are questionable. Also think wash. gets their run game going after getting completely shut down by osu. I like the huskys up to-27. Also like OK-7.5 & N.West. +8. allready have FL. St got it sun. nite pinnacle -13.5. Good luck
 

pt1gard

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like your teaser

like your teaser

as for the hometown UWs who i dont like or stomach well, hehe...

uw dawgs 0-6-1 as fave in montlake stadium LY, have to go back to 1996 to find a year UW has been +.500 ATS at home ... uw hasnt covered as DD fave role in last 7 ... maybe gilby can reverse this trend (playing down to comp) ...

their ATS overall is -7 in last 5 years ...

UW only has 2 of top 5 wrs back, their OL is a joke and they sure tackled like girls vs Ohio st ...

Im just skeptical of UW motivation in big spreads, watched them crap around for 2 years now ...

now all that said, i dont know squat about INDY, maybe they are just that bad ... but dont do it thinking the UW is some juggernaut, they're not--havent been able to run the ball since James left, well cory dillon had some legs i guess hehe


gl
gregg

ps plus one more thing i hate about this game, I dont see anyone on INDY
 

Chenker

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good luck with your plays this weekend-

I dont understand the N Dame line, looks too easy to me?
 

gardenweasel

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pt

pt

some rationale on washington...7-3 ats in home openers....indiana 6-14 ats as a dog....but,we could throw these stats back and forth ad infinitum.......more current,relevant stuff....

a new hc in his first home game coming off a bad loss...

washington has surprisingly tall receivers...indy has one db over 5`11" tall...add to that the fact that 3 projected starters in indy`s "d" backfield failed to finish the uconn game due to injury....and the last 3 years indy`s pass defense finished 96th,95th and 117th in the ncaa.....and the big ten,for the most part,isn`t the pac 10 or the wac passing wise...

indiana garnered 205 of their 321 total yards on offense with 16 minutes left in the game and the game basically decided....

i like the fact that washington got spanked last week...by one of the 2 or 3 best clubs in the ncaa....maybe the best defense...

i really like the fact that indy is forced to fly all over the country.....

i`m gonna give coach gilbertson the benefit of the doubt here...a tough way to kick your tenure off by facing the defending national champs in their own backyard....

can indy cover?....sure.....it`s just that i saw enough circumstances at play here to take a whack....

certainly not a lock....but the udub passing game could do some business here...

admittedly a heavy line...

points taken and well said....appreciate the help...
 
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pt1gard

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gl weasel

gl weasel

i hope Gilby covers for you, I like the guy, couldnt stand Neu. from day one, shyster liar; i've had some of my ex hoopers play fball for UW and Gilby thru the years and they say kids love him, and now hes trying to be tuffer as HC ...

UW will prob need 40 to cover

weather supposed to be nice until weekend, i doubt it rains

gregg
 

Master Capper

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Like the Washington play, Hoosiers are going to have some secondary match-up problems with the Huskies, Hoosiers may have the shortest secondary in Division 1A football.
 
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