Early look at week 3

[Valuist]

New Orleans +3 looks like the Saints still have a little value; the total collapse at the end of 2001 may be responsible for that. After watching both Bears games so far, I'm definitely less impressed than the 2001 version. They got very lucky Feeney missed the chip shot.

Miami -6--I know its a divisional game but the Jets are a total fraud. Huge turnover edge last year and a lucky win in week 1. How could they have been favored over New England this past week? Miami's final score was deceptive since they were in control all game. They look like the complete team.

Tampa Bay as moneyline dog. I have them favored by 1.5 but I see they open as a 2 pt dog. St. Louis looks like they are in disarray; they're still a public team, and Tampa has historically played St Louis tough in recent years.

Totals leans:
Buffalo/Denver OVER 46.5--another road trip for the Bills and they have no D. There's been a very strong over trend in games in Denver going back several years.

Green Bay/Detroit OVER 45--Green Bay's defense has been terrible and they are a poor artificial turf team. They'll put up some pts but even McMahon might be able to light up that D.

NYJ/Miami UNDER 41--Divisional game and I expect the Jets offense to have problems against the Miami D. Then a heavy dose of Ricky Williams to work the clock.

 

[GM]

Hi Valuist, nice writeups.

You know...Chicago...the talk is always how lucky they get. But they keep getting lucky, over and over and over again. They fail to impress me in so many ways but I'm starting to get red marks from being slapped so hard from going against them. On the other hand I see a lot of value in New Orleans. I've got them for a fairly large futures bet of Over 7 wins...figured if they started 3-4 it was gold. So 2-0 is better than I'd hoped for, I'm happy thus far. Seems every week I see the line on their games and I like it. They just don't get the respect but I honestly believe they are solid. I'm not a huge fan of Aaron Brooks' clock management... maybe the worst 2-minute quarterback I can think of. Scary to need him to bring a team back for you. But I like him a lot for the first 28 minutes of each half. Final 2 mins he seems to lose his mind. Anyways, tough call on this game I think for me this week.

Interesting pick on TB too. StL has done nothing to impress me at all...I watched a fair bit of that game today and I really think there is a problem between Martz and his players. Martz is starting to get that smug holier-than-though look and I think he's not really in control anymore. But does StL start 0-3? If so then I think they go into a total implosion and it could get ugly. Another game I really have to think about.

Miami and New England really are looking like the class of the AFC. But it's a long season.

See ya.

 

[Valuist]

GM--

I actually believe the Bears have been luckier this year. Everyone talks about the OT games last year but in reality the Bears kicked Cleveland's a-- all over the field; dominated yardage and first downs and Cleveland got a 60 yd TD pass off a deflection. The SF game was a gift, I admit.

The Minnesota game last week didn't impress me at all. I believe the Vikings are one of the 10 worst teams in the NFL and they played the Bears tough. On paper, it looked like the Bears could run the ball down their throats and Minny couldn't run and would have to pass every play. It didn't work out that way. As for today's game, they only managed 13 first downs and didn't even get 250 yds total offense. The tunovers definitely helped. As for the Saints, I think they will be much more like the 2000 playoff team than the team that totally quit last year.

 

[3fingerstony]

Valuist --
I am leaning towards NO & the Bucs for the same reasons you give. Also like the Den/Buf Over. I'm surprised that Denver was left out of the 'class of AFC' list. One other game that looks solid is NE at less than double digits against a KC team with a suspect defense & a passing game that hasn't gotten untracked yet. I think Belichek will be able to neutralize Priest Holmes & keep the NE offense rolling. Good luck with your picks.

 

[GM]

3fingers - Denver is playing very well. My concern with them is the problems that always arise with their RB's, and a defence that I don't think is on par with Mia or NE. But no doubt, they have looked impressive thus far.

 

[MrChristo]

Could anyone play Miami?

Totally agree they are a class above Jets at this point but they have been for most of the last 8 too!

Line opened @ -6.5...begging for Fins money?? :shrug:

 

[Valuist]

Make that +3 with Tampa. Looks easy to me. TB always gives St Louis trouble and the Rams aren't the same team off the carpet.
I expect to come away with the sweep here after the 5-0 yesterday.

 

[Cash & Carry]

excellent work, hope you hit the MNF tonight. Thanks,GLTA

 

[h3]

valuist, i tend to agree but am having a hard time figuring out how tb is going to score many points.

i think the under 43 is a very strong play. can tb cover without scoring an offensive td? can they cover only scoring one?

anyone?

 

[Valuist]

I think turnovers is how TB can score. StL turns the ball over quite often, and TB is very good at forcing turnovers. I think they can throw on St. Louis, at least decently. St Louis' whole game is speed, and they are a different team on grass, IMO.

 

[jigs]

Turnovers will be key tonite. Good job yesterday.

Playing Tampa +2 1/2 one unit GL.