early season help/ats results

[#cruncher]

I originally did this up to give me some added help in the early going; however, after seeing Senor Capper's post (which I liked very much) I decided to go ahead and post it in case it might possibly help someone else or stir up some thinking on the board.
Legend: Team, RSO-returning starters offense, QB (Y/N), RSD-returning starters defense, SAG - jeff sagarin's opening power rating (USA Today), SUR - straight up record from last year, ATS - spread record from last year, NETATS - ranking by spread record (net ATS wins).

TEAM...............RSO..QB..RSD..SAG...SUR...ATS...NETATS

01...W Virginia........05..Yes..04..77..09-03..09-02..07
02...UConn..............08..Yes..08..58..06-06..09-02..07
03...N Illinois...........07..Yes..06..70..08-04..09-02..07
04...Iowa.................04..No...07..81..11-01..09-03..06
05...Georgia............03..Yes..07..87..12-01..09-03..06
06...Kansas St.........07..Yes..05..90..10-02..08-02..06
07...Bosie St............03..Yes..07..78..11-01..09-03..06
08...Notre Dame......05..Yes..08..83..10-02..09-03..06
09...Auburn.............08..Yes..08..82..08-04..08-03..05
10...N C State..........07..Yes..05..81..10-03..08-03..05
11...Tulane..............09..Yes..03..66..07-05..08-03..05
12...Cincinnati.........05..Yes..04..71..07-06..09-04..05
13...S Florida...........08..No...06..70..09-02..07-02..05
14...San Jose St.......08..Yes..08..64..06-07..09-04..05
15...Toledo...............04..No...08..75..09-04..08-03..05
16...Penn St..............05..Yes..06..83..09-03..08-04..04
17...Kentucky............07..Yes..04..73..07-05..08-04..04
18...So Cal................06..No...06..86..10-02..08-04..04
19...California...........06..No...02..73..07-05..08-04..04
20...Maryland............06..Yes..09..82..10-03..08-04..04
21...Duke...................11..Yes..09..59..02-10..08-04..04
22...Air Force.............07..Yes..06..73..08-04..08-04..04
23...Oklahoma St.......08..Yes..06..74..07-05..07-04..03
24...Colorado.............03..No...06..83..09-04..08-05..03
25...Washington St.....06..No...07..82..10-02..07-04..03
26...Neveda................07..No...10..62..05-07..07-04..03
27...Ohio U.................04..Yes..08..62..04-08..07-04..03
28...Ball St.................05..Yes..07..62..06-06..07-04..03
29...N Texas...............04..Yes..08..65..07-05..07-04..03
30...Arkansas St.........05..Yes..09..53..06-07..07-04..03
31...Purdue................08..Yes..09..79..06-06..06-04..02
32...Illinois.................06..Yes..07..76..05-07..07-05..02
33...Alabama.............06..No...06..83..10-03..07-05..02
34...Oklahoma...........04..No...09..90..11-02..07-05..02
35...Missouri..............09..Yes..06..73..05-07..07-05..02
36...Iowa St...............08..No...07..77..07-06..07-05..02
37...Arizona St..........09..Yes..07..77..08-05..07-05..02
38...B College...........05..No...06..80..08-04..07-05..02
39...New Mexico.......10..Yes..07..68..07-06..07-05..02
40...Troy St................05..Yes..04..60..04-08..05-03..02
41...Miami Ohio.........07..Yes..07..72..07-05..07-05..02
42...Ohio St...............11..Yes..06..88..13-00..07-06..01
43...Louisiana St.......07..Yes..06..81..08-04..06-05..01
44...Texas Tech.........09..No...05..80..08-05..07-06..01
45...UCLA...................07..No...07..82..07-05..06-05..01
46...Oregon St............09..Yes..06..80..08-04..06-05..01
47...Virginia...............09..Yes..07..78..08-05..07-06..01
48...Virginia Tech......07..Yes..09..86..09-04..07-06..01
49...Rutgers...............07..Yes..08..53..01-11..06-05..01
50...Colorado St........08..Yes..07..78..10-03..07-06..01
51...Rice....................07..Yes..03..63..04-07..06-05..01
52...C Florida............04..Yes..08..70..07-05..06-05..01
53...Idaho..................06..yes..07..58..02-10..06-05..01
54...UL Monroe..........08..Yes..08..52..03-09..06-05..01
55...Wisconsin...........07..No...09..80..07-06..06-06..00
56...Northwestern......07..Yes..09..68..03-09..06-06..00
57...Tennessee..........08..Yes..03..85..08-04..06-06..00
58...Mississippi..........08..Yes..08..77..06-06..06-06..00
59...Nebraska............05..Yes..07..86..07-07..06-06..00
60...Louisville............07..No...05..75..07-05..06-06..00
61...San Diego St......06..Yes..07..66..04-09..06-06..00
62...Wyoming............07..Yes..08..61..02-10..05-05..00
63...Hawaii................07..Yes..07..69..10-03..06-06..00
64...Navy...................07..Yes..06..54..02-10..06-06..00
65...Arkansas............09..Yes..08..80..09-04..06-07..(01)
66...Oregon...............08..Yes..06..82..07-05..05-06..(01)
67...Florida St...........04..Yes..10..91..09-04..06-07..(01)
68...Clemson.............08..Yes..04..78..07-05..05-06..(01)
69...Temple...............05..Yes..04..65..04-08..05-06..(01)
70...Memphis.............04..Yes..08..64..03-09..05-06..(01)
71...UAB....................09..Yes..07..65..05-07..05-06..(01)
72...Buffalo................07..Yes..09..47..01-11..05-06..(01)
73...Bowling Green....06..Yes..08..70..09-03..05-06..(01)
74...C Michigan..........07..Yes..05..57..04-08..05-06..(01)
75...M Tennessee.......05..Yes..08..61..04-08..05-06..(01)
76...Texas..................08..No...08..89..10-02..05-07..(02)
77...Washington.........08..Yes..08..82..07-05..05-07..(02)
78...Stanford..............03..Yes..08..75..02-09..04-06..(02)
79...Wake Forest........03..No...07..73..06-06..04-06..(02)
80...Pittsburgh............08..Yes..06..77..08-04..05-07..(02)
81...TCU.....................04..No...06..74..09-02..04-06..(02)
82...Houston...............05..Yes..05..60..05-07..05-07..(02)
83...Army....................05..Yes..07..52..01-11..04-06..(02)
84...SMU.....................07..Yes..07..58..03-09..05-07..(02)
85...Marshall...............06..No...06..77..10-02..04-06..(02)
86...UL Lafayette........06..No...05..53..03-09..05-07..(02)
87...Utah St.................04..No...07..62..04-07..04-06..(02)
88...Minnesota............07..Yes..09..75..07-05..04-07..(02)
89...Indiana................07..No...07..68..03-09..04-07..(03)
90...Arizona................07..No...06..73..04-08..04-07..(03)
91...Miami...................06..No...07..96..12-00..04-07..(03)
92...Syracuse..............07..No...07..76..04-08..04-07..(03)
93...Utah.....................05..Yes..05..72..05-06..04-07..(03)
94...Tulsa....................09..Yes..08..52..01-11..04-07..(03)
95...Akron...................11..Yes..06..61..04-08..04-07..(03)
96...W Michigan..........05..Yes..05..67..04-08..04-07..(03)
97...Michigan..............07..Yes..06..87..10-03..04-08..(04)
98...Florida.................06..No...03..89..08-04..04-08..(04)
99...Vanderbilt............06..Yes..06..64..02-10..03-07..(04)
100.Texas A&M...........06..Yes..05..79..06-06..04-08..(04)
101.Georgia Tech.......07..Yes..07..80..07-05..04-08..(04)
102.N Carolina............08..Yes..08..73..03-09..04-08..(04)
103.BYU......................05..Yes..10..72..05-07..04-08..(04)
104.Fresno St..............07..Yes..06..74..08-05..04-08..(04)
105.Mississippi St........06..Yes..07..71..03-09..03-08..(05)
106.Kansas..................05..Yes..06..62..02-10..03-08..(05)
107.E Carolina.............08..Yes..05..71..04-08..03-08..(05)
108.UNLV.....................05..No...06..66..05-07..03-08..(05)
109.UTEP.....................08..Yes..06..54..02-10..03-08..(05)
110.S Carolina.............03..No...06..76..05-07..03-09..(06)
111.So Mississippi........05..Yes..08..74..07-05..02-08..(06)
112.Louisiana Tech......06..Yes..04..64..04-08..03-09..(06)
113.E Michigan.............07..No...10..52..03-09..02-08..(06)
114.New Mexico St.......06..Yes..07..63..07-05..03-09..(06)
115.Michigan St............07..Yes..08..74..04-08..02-09..(07)
116.Kent St...................06..Yes..04..54..03-09..01-09..(08)
117.Baylor....................06..Yes..06..60..03-09..01-10..(09)

I realize this list could look totally different for this year but I think it does help to emphasize what we (should) already know; namely, a winning SU record doesn't necessarily correlate into a winning ATS record. To wit, the following 7 teams combined for a SU record of 75-21, but only went 32-56 ATS.

Texas..........10-02.........05-07
TCU.............09-02.........04-06
Marshall......10-02.........04-06
Miami..........12-00.........04-07
Michigan.....10-03.........04-08
Florida........08-04.........04-08
So Miss.......07-05.........02-08

I guess the name of the game is still 'value' no matter how teams actually 'stack up' against each other. In short, (The Facts) minus (perception) = Value. It appears if there is not a significant difference between the two, then there is probably not a lot of value to be found.

If anything, I think the list shows us the game is beatable (you couldn't prove it by me of late) if one could find a way to be consistently going with the ATS winners and/or against the ATS burners (and of course, managing our money correctly...easier said than done).

 

[taoist]

...good stuff. I kinda figured you'd be back around when CFB season started.


...what amazes me is the number of teams that went 4-6, 6-4, 5-6, 6-5, 7-5, and 5-7 ATS. You've really got to pick and choose your spots unless you can find a team at the top or bottom and ride them accordingly all year. Like you said, easier said than done.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

With the amount of great info so far on the forum and the season is still 10 days I am hoping this is all our best year to date. Lets keep posting stuff like this and use it like never before. GL all!

HORNS

 

[c20916]

I agree with taoist, almost half of the 1A teams had a netats between +2 and -2. Just from that, and I think someone last year in the fourm may have said it, you can't rely on what you saw the week before with these college teams ATS wise. Doesn't seem to be too many streaks ATS. If you see a team win 2 in a row ATS, do you go against them in week 3? Wonder if these numbers are similar to past years?

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks guys, it's always nice to think you have contributed. And I always look forward to this time of year whether I won or lost last year.

I think there may be a few more teams than we think that have some pretty good hot streaks. Both USC and Iowa ended the year on 6 game winning (ATS streaks) and UConn opened with a 4 game winning ATS streak, ended it with a 3 game streak, and had a couple of winners sandwiched in between. Personally, I'd rather not buck a team on a hot streak

Anyway, I hope we all have a great year...this a great place to hang out and there are a lot of sharp people here and all sports are well covered! The main thing is to "take care" of each other.



:toast: