Early leans: CIN -3, BAL -6.5, GB -9, CHI +9 & TBD.
Mostly leaning to favs, which is uncommon for me, not to mention a little AFC North bias. The Bears seem like dangerous underdog at first glance, but 9 is a lot for this team, even on the road in Arrowhead. The Chiefs aren't designed to blow teams out with captain check-down, Alex Smith, and a run-heavy offense. This is a spot where they could get caught looking ahead to their week 6 bye after returning home from two straight road games. I also like that the Bears surprised everybody last week...shows they haven't given up on their season yet. I see a big game for Jeffrey here against a secondary that's provided some big days for their opponent's #1 WR.
My two favorite picks this week are Cincy and Balty. I tend to lean towards the teams that played on Thursday the previous week with 10 days to prepare, making the Steelers somewhat appealing (11 days), but I'm not eager to jump at the 3pt spread on MNF in San Diego. The Ravens, on the other hand, may have just kick-started their season with an extremely lucky 1st win and their upcoming schedule looking fairly easy the next 9 weeks. I don't think Seattle is all that they're hyped up to be from years past and they'll have their hands full on the road with a very capable Bengals offense. Seahawks showed some flaws on the offensive side on Monday night, plus the short week to prepare makes things a little more tough for the visitors, especially with the two banged up RBs.
GB looks a little too easy, but I think we'll see that line at 10 on Sunday with the Rams looking at a bit of a let down spot after another big NFC North win. Maybe those are the only teams they can get up for and maybe it has something to do with that speedy defense playing on turf, but I'll admit Gurley looked lethal last week in Arizona and the Pack better find a way to stop him early. The thing is, when Rodgers puts them up by double digits with a few quick scores, the Rams will soon abandon the run and Foles will struggle throwing into one of the top 3 secondaries in the NFL. The Packers offense will not be stalled for a second week in a row. Not at home.
Normally, I'd look to play on a team like DET, who is 0-4 and desperate for a win to save their season, but the short week is concerning and it seems that ARZ got a scheduling break having been slotted in to the afternoon slate while having to travel East.
I'll throw my hands up on PHI and NO until I see some sign of consistency out of either team. My gut tells me I should lean to the Eagles here, but 4.5 seems like a bit much for a team that can't seem to get its offense in gear until the 2nd half.
JAX/TB looks like another toss up to me, but a very small lean to the Jags getting points.
Interesting that the DEN/OAK line has dropped a full point from the opener to -4.5. The Broncos streak of lucky covers ended last week and the Raiders appear to be a worthy (fuckin) adversary in the AFC West this year. I'm tempted by the home dog and I could easily see them ending up on the card this week, however, the Raiders are completely inept at covering the TE position and the thought of Peyton driving down the field late in game with the point spread cover on the line has me feeling a bit reluctant to get involved. The half point could come into play here if the Broncos were in that very situation down three on their last drive of the game.
I'm sure that NE spent the bye week working out a million different ways to blow out the Cowboys. This team is reminiscent of the '07 group that lit the league on fire after the Spygate scandal, but they don't have a defense that's anywhere close to the '07 unit, nor the same caliber of offensive weapons. Then again, this team has Gronk, who is probably receiving force unlike anything ever seen in the NFL before. An 8.5-point home dog looks awfully tempting, but I'm not about to get in the way of a pissed off Brady/Belichick, especially when I see the line has moved up to 9.5 in a bunch of spots (up two points from the opener of 7.5).
I don't have a good feel for the WAS/ATL game, but I do find it interesting that the line was very quickly bet down from the opener of 9 on Sunday evening.
That's it for now. Maybe I'll have a few wagers this weekend, but I'm hoping to follow up a 5-0 Week 4 in the contest with another strong week.
GLTA :toast:
Mostly leaning to favs, which is uncommon for me, not to mention a little AFC North bias. The Bears seem like dangerous underdog at first glance, but 9 is a lot for this team, even on the road in Arrowhead. The Chiefs aren't designed to blow teams out with captain check-down, Alex Smith, and a run-heavy offense. This is a spot where they could get caught looking ahead to their week 6 bye after returning home from two straight road games. I also like that the Bears surprised everybody last week...shows they haven't given up on their season yet. I see a big game for Jeffrey here against a secondary that's provided some big days for their opponent's #1 WR.
My two favorite picks this week are Cincy and Balty. I tend to lean towards the teams that played on Thursday the previous week with 10 days to prepare, making the Steelers somewhat appealing (11 days), but I'm not eager to jump at the 3pt spread on MNF in San Diego. The Ravens, on the other hand, may have just kick-started their season with an extremely lucky 1st win and their upcoming schedule looking fairly easy the next 9 weeks. I don't think Seattle is all that they're hyped up to be from years past and they'll have their hands full on the road with a very capable Bengals offense. Seahawks showed some flaws on the offensive side on Monday night, plus the short week to prepare makes things a little more tough for the visitors, especially with the two banged up RBs.
GB looks a little too easy, but I think we'll see that line at 10 on Sunday with the Rams looking at a bit of a let down spot after another big NFC North win. Maybe those are the only teams they can get up for and maybe it has something to do with that speedy defense playing on turf, but I'll admit Gurley looked lethal last week in Arizona and the Pack better find a way to stop him early. The thing is, when Rodgers puts them up by double digits with a few quick scores, the Rams will soon abandon the run and Foles will struggle throwing into one of the top 3 secondaries in the NFL. The Packers offense will not be stalled for a second week in a row. Not at home.
Normally, I'd look to play on a team like DET, who is 0-4 and desperate for a win to save their season, but the short week is concerning and it seems that ARZ got a scheduling break having been slotted in to the afternoon slate while having to travel East.
I'll throw my hands up on PHI and NO until I see some sign of consistency out of either team. My gut tells me I should lean to the Eagles here, but 4.5 seems like a bit much for a team that can't seem to get its offense in gear until the 2nd half.
JAX/TB looks like another toss up to me, but a very small lean to the Jags getting points.
Interesting that the DEN/OAK line has dropped a full point from the opener to -4.5. The Broncos streak of lucky covers ended last week and the Raiders appear to be a worthy (fuckin) adversary in the AFC West this year. I'm tempted by the home dog and I could easily see them ending up on the card this week, however, the Raiders are completely inept at covering the TE position and the thought of Peyton driving down the field late in game with the point spread cover on the line has me feeling a bit reluctant to get involved. The half point could come into play here if the Broncos were in that very situation down three on their last drive of the game.
I'm sure that NE spent the bye week working out a million different ways to blow out the Cowboys. This team is reminiscent of the '07 group that lit the league on fire after the Spygate scandal, but they don't have a defense that's anywhere close to the '07 unit, nor the same caliber of offensive weapons. Then again, this team has Gronk, who is probably receiving force unlike anything ever seen in the NFL before. An 8.5-point home dog looks awfully tempting, but I'm not about to get in the way of a pissed off Brady/Belichick, especially when I see the line has moved up to 9.5 in a bunch of spots (up two points from the opener of 7.5).
I don't have a good feel for the WAS/ATL game, but I do find it interesting that the line was very quickly bet down from the opener of 9 on Sunday evening.
That's it for now. Maybe I'll have a few wagers this weekend, but I'm hoping to follow up a 5-0 Week 4 in the contest with another strong week.
GLTA :toast:
