Early Week 1 Card

[Irish]

Boise (+7) over Georgia

Why do I like a WAC team over a SEC team at home, which is an extremely tough place to play. Well looking at Georgia they lose a ton of not so much talent but talent and leadership. They lose QB, WR's and a lot of their defense. They replace a 3 year starter at QB with Shockey (sp) who if I'm not mistaken has thrown about 10 passes in his career. Yeah Boise is by no way near a defensive powerhouse they still have the ability to make some stops especially against a team that lost their top two deep threat. All that aside Bosie is a speed team and they have a lot of returning players on what was a tremendous offense last season. I think the Broncos can win out right but I'm just not sure how a georgia team spots the #18 team a full TD. Remember this is the same boise team that hung with Louisville last year.

Any dawg fans,please feel free to add info.... This is a huge lean for me!

L

:mj14:
Cheers
Irish

 

[Sun Tzu]

"Hung with Louisville."

Probably not a popular sentiment, but that doesnt mean much too me. LVille played nobody except a 3 loss Miami team, to whom they lost. A Miami team that lost to UNC and Clemson I might add.

No doubt Georgia lost alot, but I think folks are buying in to the Boise myth way too much. Throw in a month to prepare, on the road, in the Southern heat with a squad that doenst go very deep, Boise is not getting it's usual advantages.

And might I add Georgia probably has one of the Top 5 secondaries in the nation.

Regardless of what you do, best of luck.

 

[Superbear]

'in the Southern heat with a squad that doenst go very deep'

'And might I add Georgia probably has one of the Top 5 secondaries in the nation'

he is so right,..Boise is ''Joe Publicks" sexy dog pick here,..don't forget what happened when The Broncos went down to Arkansas in a 1st game of the year in some verry simmular southern heat,..they got their asses kicked

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this season Irish

 

[TimmyE]

Probably not even touching this game, but I don't buy the Boise St myth either. The only thing they're real good at is playing on that damn blue turf!

Last year they only had 4 road games, they barely squeaked by AT tulsa, winning by a fg they made with 3 seconds left, they went into double OT to beat San Jose State out of all people, and then they won easily at UTEP and Nevada.

I seriously think that blue turf gives them a huge advantage people don't realize. Look how they easily they whipped Ore St 53-34 on the smurf turf last year, but the year before they got beat at OSU. Likewise, they barely beat San Jose in double OT, but the year before on the smurf turf they killed them 77-14.

They also outscored UTEP and Nevada by a couple touchdowns more when comparing their home game with their away the last 2 years.

 

[Irish]

Thanks for the input guys, I don't like Boise going into Georgia because it is a tough place to play and hotter than hell. However I can't call what Boise has done over the past few years a myth and I think it is tough to spot this team a full td in the first game of the season with a lot of bulldog question marks. Sun Tuz I agree that the Dawgs have a tough secondary but they did lose a big part in that with Thomas Davis gone and couple that with two starting LB's gone. Also it is extremely hard to replace both starting WR and QB, even though I think have a great RB helps that loss. Thanks again

Cheers
Irish

 

[THE KOD]

Irish

Good info. I am looking hard at this game. One thing no one has mentioned is that Georgia brings a load at the RB positions. Boise better be able to stop the run or they are going to get blown out early. Add that Shockey dont throw much but the sum bitch can run fast , real fast. He won't need to throw much handing off all day.

 

[bjfinste]

This game reminds me a lot of the BC/BYU game. Talent on both sides of the ball, but like BC, GA has the front line to pound the ball. With the line sitting at -7, I'm having a hard time not pulling the trigger on Georgia.

 

[gman2]

i dont really lean to either side in this one, but one thing i will say in defense of boise is that they are terrific up front and stop the run very well. they were 4th in the nation last year in run defense, and they held fresno's duo of mathis/sumlin, arguably one of the best duos in the nation, to just 39 yards combined. broncos dont have a typical wac run defense. this will be a huge test though.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Yea, that run happy WAC. And of course everyone pounds the ball when they are 3 or 4 tds down.

PS This is for those of you who think GMan and I always agree!

 

[gman2]

This is for those of you who think GMan and I always agree!

lol, i know. we certainly didn't develop a mutual respect by always agreeing on games.

to your point, thats why i mentioned the fresno game. like you said, wac certainly isnt a run-heavy conference so numbers can get skewed. was boise a legit top 5 run defense last year? probably not. but they were still solid as a unit in that department. and when they did face the lone power rushing attack (fresno), they held them in check. then again, you look at how louisville gashed the boise defense in the liberty bowl and the run defense looks vulnerable.

im in no hurry to play boise state off the blue carpet though. if you look at their games away from home last year (and there were only 4 of 'em, 5 counting the bowl), they gave up 31,42, 49,21, and 44 points. then you look at their defense at home and its like the '85 bears.so im steering clear on this one with a lean to georgia.

 

[TimmyE]

I just don't see what they've done, even in the past couple years. You can't name one decent team outside of the WAC they've beat on the road EVER besides BYU.
How do they fare against the BCS conferences?

ACC - Never played

Big East - Never played

Big 12 - Beat ISU

Big 10 - 0-1

SEC - 0-3

Pac 10 - 1-9

 

[Irish]

What they have done over the past few years is 10-2 and 11-1, yeah that isn't against a ton of tough teams because the WAC isn't the SEC but you can't dismiss they fact these boys can play. The head coach is in his 5th year at Boise State: 44-7! 4th in the nation in total offense (453 yards per game) and second in scoring (48.92 points per game). The also finished 10th in the nation in run defense, but it didn't play anyone who could consistently move the ball on the ground granted. I'm just saying it isn't a myth after those types of season and if Boise has a weakness on defense other than size it is secondary and with Georgia lossing QB and WR's it hurts georgia more than boise.

Stating all that...I think Georgia is a great team and should win but I have a hard time not taking boise and the points considering this is the first game of the season and some of the new starters for georgia will feel some pressure.

Thanks again for the info
Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Oregon (-8.5) over Houston
A lot of returning weapons for the ducks make this a good looking play. Yeah the cougars run a very complex offense and Kolb is a 3 year starter but the Ducks are a stronger team. However The offensive line and linebackers are OK at best. The ducks do have talent on both sides with senior quarter Kellen Clemens, tight end Tim Day, RB Terrence Whitehead, WR Demetrius Williams, and defensive line stars Haloti Ngata and Devan Long. On offense the ducks get new Offensive Co from BYU whose pass happy attack might help Clemens get the ball out quicker to Day and Williams and open up running lanes for Whitehead. Houston isn't as bad as their record last year was, they have experience, depth and play-makers like QB Kevin Kolb, WR Vincent Marshall, and FS Will Gulley, if he can come back from a knee injury. Eight starters return to the nation's 44th best offense but they only averaged 21 points per game. They just don't get it in the end zone. The Cougars will shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 hoping to generate more of a pass rush and do more against the run after allowing 192 yards per game. That is where the big duck O-lineman can take advantage. Even though the Ducks lost 3/5 of the o-line they have recruited well there and it should be improved from the 41 sacks they gave up last year.

W

Arizona (+7) over Utah
Utah loses some key people to graduation and the draft. They have some solid returners in RB Ganther but all in all this utes team lost too much (Leading rusher Marty Johnson, star receivers Paris Warren and Steve Savoy and top safety Morgan Scalley..not to mention Smith). However the strength of the Utah team is the O line will be more than solid, especially on the left side and at center. Bigger than the player loses is the coaching staff changes. Head coach change and New Defensive Co might be tough to replace. For the wildcats Eight starters return on defense with all four, including all-stars Antoine Cason and Darrell Brooks, to a secondary that should be much tighter. Plus the spread offense will look a bit better as it did toward the end of the season last year. The Stoops coaching staff has had two years and the ability to get some key pieces on the team. The speed of this team is very impressive. The Arizona line is also very big and physical. Should be a tough game but I'll take the points considering the utes are rebuilding.

W
:mj14:
Cheers
Irish

 

[Scott4USC]

Oregon (-8.5) over Houston
A lot of returning weapons for the ducks make this a good looking play. Yeah the cougars run a very complex offense and Kolb is a 3 year starter but the Ducks are a stronger team. However The offensive line and linebackers are OK at best. The ducks do have talent on both sides with senior quarter Kellen Clemens, tight end Tim Day, RB Terrence Whitehead, WR Demetrius Williams, and defensive line stars Haloti Ngata and Devan Long. On offense the ducks get new Offensive Co from BYU whose pass happy attack might help Clemens get the ball out quicker to Day and Williams and open up running lanes for Whitehead. Houston isn't as bad as their record last year was, they have experience, depth and play-makers like QB Kevin Kolb, WR Vincent Marshall, and FS Will Gulley, if he can come back from a knee injury. Eight starters return to the nation's 44th best offense but they only averaged 21 points per game. They just don't get it in the end zone. The Cougars will shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 hoping to generate more of a pass rush and do more against the run after allowing 192 yards per game. That is where the big duck O-lineman can take advantage. Even though the Ducks lost 3/5 of the o-line they have recruited well there and it should be improved from the 41 sacks they gave up last year.

Last year the WR's for Oregon were a disappointment. I assume you have optimism they will shine this year on the road in their first game of the season under a new system.

Oregon also returns ZERO players with experience at the LB position. :scared The only player with experience at LB was moved to safety. Not sure if he is starting at safety, if he does, then that is not good. The players name is Anthony Trucks.

Overall, the LB's and Secondary for Oregon are unproven units. The secondary play from last year was horrible. Not good when playing on the road defending a spread offense lead by an experienced QB. LB play is crucial against a spread offense. Not to mention a solid secondary!

You mentioned running lanes for Whitehead. He did average over 5ypc last year but Oregon lost 2 of their best lineman. (Snyder and Steitz) Snyder was nominated for that OL award at the end of the year. On top of losing those 2 dudes, Oregon also lost another starter. I wouldn't be so confident in Whitehead getting the same type of production, especially opening game of the year. Don't forget pass protection for Clemens. Shouldn't you be a little worried? Especially laying 8.5pts on the road?

I think the #1 point I am trying to make is you are right this is a very talented team, but IMO they will need time to come together. You are not asking this team to come out of Houston with a win, but a double digit win! I think that is too much to ask. I could be wrong, just throwing this stuff out there!

I agree with your other plays and thanks for the write-ups! Good luck this weekend and the season!

 

[Irish]

GT (+7) over Auburn
Not the greatest spot for GT to be going into Auburn against a still strong defense IMO. Howver you can argue that PJ Daniels and Calvin Johnson are two of the best weapons in the ACC. They also return a solid defense CB Reuben Houston, DE Eric Henderson and do-it-all safety Chris Reis are just a few of the top talents. Wilkinson is the rock in the middle of the D at LB. Even though Reggie Ball makes mistakes he still has scrambling ability and can hurt the tigers when plays break down getting it done with his mobility. Down fall for the GT jackets is at O-line where they only return one starter. This is a tempting play because of the GT defense which returns 8 starters (10 if you include DT Mansfield Wright who moved to offensive guard and CB Dennis Davis who returns from shoulder problems) which allowed 18.9 points per game. With all the talent the tigers lost they might have a hard time moving the ball aginst GT. Looking at this play as a strong play on a tough defense getting a TD with returning talent at the skill positions and the other team having to replace a lot of players.

Scott - I totally agree with everything you said. The word out of Oregon camp is Day will be the goto reciever but Williams has show improvement. The O-line was not as good as you think last year even with the loses they still have some big boys that need to step up in order to open holes for Whitehead. Also the scheme of the new Offensive Co is fit for Clemens mobility and throwing on the run. Like I said the secondary and LBs are OK at best and they need some leadership in that postion, but Still I like what the ducks bring to the table as an overall squad. You are right though they do need to come together if they are to do anything this year. Thanks for the info

W
Cheers
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Butting heads this week but I'm sure we'll agree more than not down the road -- best of luck this season and thanks for the work you put in.

 

[tulah]

Best of luck this season!!!

 

[Irish]

VT (-3.5) over NC st
What a great defensive game. IMO VT has one of the best front in all of NCAA. They have tremendous speed at LB and great talent on the line. Not to mention they get Vick back at QB. NOW I don't think Marcus is anything like Mike but he does have the ability to run and that should be something that will help the hokies against a GREAT front of NC st. The pack DE are two of the best in NCAA. However I'm not sure if anyone knows how solid VT is at wideout? They have Royal and Clowney plus a few other. They also have a good Oline and solid running game with Imoh. Did I mention a TE that can stretch the field when the play breaks down. NC st has a solid team but I have to play tech even though they lost a little bit at safety. Should be a great game and it is tough to go against St at home still I like this VT team a ton this year.

W

Cheers
Irish

 

[AU2001]

Irish,
I am with you on VT and Arizona, but I would advise you to tread lightly going against UGA and Auburn playing at home in the hot southern sun, and only getting a touchdown cushion. UGA may have the nation's best O-line returning, and Auburn will have arguably the best pass rush and fastest linebackers in the country.

Anything can happen with new QB's, but if Cox and Shockley even halfway show up, they should be able to cover in both spots.