Early Week 3 Look - Week 3 NFL thread

[Jord20]

Cheers fellas. Yeah, very, very nice close to the day. I haven't added these up on here yet, but I ended up finishing yesterday slightly up on the day somehow. Very pleased with that, given some of my bad calls.

Tonight, I already posted Bears +3

I also locked in...

Bears 1h +1 1060-1000
over 44 1590-1500
FH over 22 1060-1000

Bears are a public dog... usually a good fade. Like the Tennessee "sharp" pick... I think people are just wrong here. I am a believer that the Bears are solid this year, and the Jets are borderline trash. Geno is terrible. TO me, the game tonight comes down to 1 key factor - The Bears Offensive Line. If they give Cutler time back there, I firmly believe that the Bears will win by 2 TDs. I realize that is a big 'if' but I'm going with it.

GL

 

[Jord20]

x2! keep crushin J

Regardless of how bad a day it was for you. I'd follow you to the depths of hell with your picks. You're solid as hell. :0008

All good buddy, we appreciate you!

Appreciate it, guys :toast:

That Bears line is dropping. I'm not even analyzing the line movement or worrying about it tonight though.

Jos Public had a great week. I went...

17-15 - 790 on here this week. Probably slightly positive on posted picks yesterday. Ok, I can live with that. Hopefully can get Bears and over tonight and finish the week positive.

Anytime public hits that many games on a Sunday, I am going to struggle to do well. As I said in an earlier post, i figured after the first 2 weeks, this week would be more public/obvious friendly.

 

[Jord20]

Bears -3.5 +180 (I won't count these towards record)

I think this is decent value. It wouldn't shock me to see the Bears fall apart, but if they play well adn protect Cutler... they will score, and will win handily.

I also played tt over and Bears and over tease.

I'm not oblivious to the fact that just by looking at the line and the situation, a lot of things point towards the Jets, and I am on that "team b" 9 out of 10x times. I just don't see it tonight.

 

[Korn]

Lol 10 min's ago I saw that line and thought would Jord play this... then said nah I'm crazy... let's go!

 

[BillyS]

Jord, i appreciate all of your hard work with the plays you post.

Im getting the line on the bears under 3, i see you played it +3. Im guessing you like the bears no matter what the line is, am i correct?

 

[Jord20]

Jord, i appreciate all of your hard work with the plays you post.

I'm getting the line on the bears under 3, i see you played it +3. Im guessing you like the bears no matter what the line is, am i correct?

I do. The 3 is a nice number just in case. Obviously, getting the best numbers is key for high volume, and in the long run, but you can't possible lay off a game for any move in the line under 3. If you are nervous about a 1-2 point game, you should probably lay off.

Personally, I would play the Bears all the way to -3. Between Jets -2 and Bears -2, the value doesn't change too much.

It kind of reminds me of the people who freak out when someone hits or sticks on 12 vs 2 in blackjack (or any of these under 51% odds differences)... when you play blackjack 3 times a year, your decisions on those kinds of hands are virtually meaningless. Now, if you are playing thousands of hands, that's when being consistent matters.

Hope that quick little semi- incoherent ramble helped

 

[Jord20]

Lol 10 min's ago I saw that line and thought would Jord play this... then said nah I'm crazy... let's go!

Let's go!

The squares were ready to quit bettting after those first 2 weeks. They had a decent day yesterday, before giving some back with the Panthers. Let's get them feeling good heading into next week's bloodbath, lol :mj07:

 

[BillyS]

thanks buddy much appreciated as always!! And nice blackjack analogy, i obviously play alot more action than just 3x a year!! Bears and over it is!! Lets hit it one more time and end the week nicely.

 

[tulah]

Bears -3.5 +180 (I won't count these towards record)

I think this is decent value. It wouldn't shock me to see the Bears fall apart, but if they play well adn protect Cutler... they will score, and will win handily.

I also played tt over and Bears and over tease.

I'm not oblivious to the fact that just by looking at the line and the situation, a lot of things point towards the Jets, and I am on that "team b" 9 out of 10x times. I just don't see it tonight.

Not trying to be a smart ass but your avatar says your in Chicago Illinois.
Are these plays coming from a Bears fan?

 

[Jord20]

Not trying to be a smart ass but your avatar says your in Chicago Illinois. Are these plays coming from a Bears fan?

Lol. Understood. Not at all. I'm not a "fan" of any team really. I like money and winning. I will just as easily fade Chicago teams as play on them. See my bulls record/plays past few years.

 

[Jord20]

Not trying to be a smart ass but your avatar says your in Chicago Illinois. Are these plays coming from a Bears fan?

Actually, I only went to one bears game last year, and I played against them.

I do think that this year's team can be very good if they can get healthy, shore up he o line, and awaken lance Briggs from the dead

 

[DannyTG]

Best WR duo in the game in my opinion

 

[Franchise_Davis]

Actually, I only went to one bears game last year, and I played against them.

I do think that this year's team can be very good if they can get healthy, shore up he o line, and awaken lance Briggs from the dead

Oline was much better last week. Garza is the weak point of that line, him being injured is almost a blessing.

Briggs was very good last week.

Jets have no CBs that can keep up with Marshall or Jeffrey imo

This will depend on how DJ Williams and Bostic play the run tonight.

I think bears roll

 

[Jord20]

Geeeeeeeeeeno

 

[Jord20]

Cutler!

 

[Jord20]

A "sharp" bloodbath may be more fun than a public one :mj07::mj07:

 

[canuckfan77]

A "sharp" bloodbath may be more fun than a public one :mj07::mj07:

Indeed :toast:

I parlayed the Bears ml with the over opcorn2

 

[BillyS]

A "sharp" bloodbath may be more fun than a public one :mj07::mj07:

I would have to very much agree with that!!

 

[Jord20]

Indeed :toast:

I parlayed the Bears ml with the over opcorn2

me too. nice start, I see no reason that they shouldn't be able to close. This offense is legit and the Jets don't play well from behind... Geeeeeenooo

 

[Jord20]

Forte with another nice block... if Cutler has time, he is a surgeon with those big receivers.