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Preview: Jets (9-7) at Chargers (13-3)

Preview: Jets (9-7) at Chargers (13-3)

Preview: Jets (9-7) at Chargers (13-3)


Date: January 17, 2010 4:40 PM EDT

Yet again, the San Diego Chargers are surging entering the postseason. They shouldn't be surprised to find a top defense in their way.

Winners of 11 straight and fresh off a bye, the Chargers find themselves in familiar circumstances in the playoffs as they host the New York Jets and their top-ranked defense in a divisional matchup Sunday afternoon.

San Diego (13-3) is the NFL's hottest team, riding a streak that gave it a fourth straight AFC West title and the conference's No. 2 seed. With Philip Rivers firmly established as one of the league's top quarterbacks, the Chargers have a good opportunity to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 15 seasons.



However, this isn't new territory for San Diego. The Chargers won 10 straight entering the postseason in 2006 only to lose at home to New England in the divisional round, then won eight in a row before losing to the Patriots again the following season in the conference title game.

Last year, San Diego's four-game winning streak got it into the playoffs and it upset Indianapolis in a wild-card matchup before losing to Pittsburgh.

"We've been there before. We've been the popular pick to win the Super Bowl before and haven't," linebacker Shawne Merriman said. "Our whole mentality this year is completely different, in not looking too far ahead down the road. That's been the big key this year altogether, is not looking too far down the road."

Each of San Diego's last three playoff defeats have been against teams that were ranked in the top five in scoring defense, and it's 1-1 in such games this season. The Jets (10-7) are No. 1 in that category (14.8 points per game), first in total defense (252.3 yards a contest) and feeling confident following a 24-14 wild-card victory over Cincinnati last Saturday.

"I think they're the best defense we're going to play," running back LaDainian Tomlinson said. "They do a lot of things well. But they've got the winning formula. They run the ball well and they play good defense. You look at teams throughout history that have done well, those are the teams that had that winning formula."

Tomlinson and San Diego have to hope experience will serve them well as they try to avoid the mistakes made by what were younger teams. This was Tomlinson's first sub-1,000-yard season, though, and the Chargers posted an NFL-low 3.3 yards per rush.

Still, Tomlinson has remained effective inside the 20-yard line, scoring 12 touchdowns. That, however, may be more of a product of the Chargers' potent passing game keeping defenses honest in the red zone.

Rivers ranked third in the NFL with a 104.4 passer rating, completing 65.2 percent of his attempts for 4,254 yards and 28 TDs while getting picked off nine times. He relies on a trio of big targets in Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates.

Jackson, San Diego's top wide receiver, will likely be matched up with Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis for most of this game. Revis, who finished second in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting to Green Bay's Charles Woodson, routinely plays man-to-man and has shut down several of the league's top receivers.

Revis and New York's defense complement the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack. The Jets average 172.2 yards and had 171 against a strong Bengals run defense.

Thomas Jones ran for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs in the regular season for New York, but a banged-up knee limited him to 34 yards on 15 carries against the Bengals. Rookie Shonn Greene got most of the carries, running for 135 yards.

San Diego has had trouble defending the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game. No team, though, has held the Jets to fewer yards on the ground over the past two seasons than the Chargers have.

San Diego limited New York to 41 yards rushing in a 49-29 win at home Sept. 22, 2008. Jones was held to 37 yards on 10 carries.

If the Chargers find a way to shut down the run again, they'll put rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez in a position the Jets might not be comfortable with. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but he's been turnover-free over the last three weeks as New York has relied even more on its running game.

Against Cincinnati, Sanchez had perhaps the best game of his career, going 12 for 15 for 182 yards and a touchdown for a passer rating of 139.4, taking advantage of a defense that loaded up against the run.

"We've improved as an offense ... taking care of the football and making the right decisions, which is sometimes a conservative one and just playing smart," Sanchez said. "I have plenty of room to improve. I haven't arrived. I've still got a long way to go."

With Sanchez taking care of the ball and the running game showing no signs of slowing down, New York believes it will be tough to beat regardless of the opponent.

"We've won six out of seven and we feel pretty good about ourselves," coach Rex Ryan said. "San Diego has won 11 straight, so both teams are carrying a lot of momentum going into this game. It's just going to be who can out-execute the other."

New York won its only playoff matchup with San Diego in overtime, 20-17 on the road in a wild-card game Jan. 8, 2005.
 

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Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Week 19


NY JETS (10-7) vs SAN DIEGO (13-3)

Game Time: 4:30 p.m. EDT Sunday, January 17

Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium Surface: grass






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NY JETS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 4 - 4 6 - 3 10 - 7 4 - 4 6 - 3 10 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 5 8 - 9
Last 5 games 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
SAN DIEGO HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 6 - 2 7 - 1 13 - 3 3 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 7 6 - 2 4 - 3 10 - 5
Last 5 games 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 3 - 0 5 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 3 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
NY JETS 3 - 1 3 - 2 4 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 4 1 - 0 4 - 4 0 - 0
SAN DIEGO 2 - 2 3 - 1 4 - 3 1 - 0 3 - 4 0 - 0 3 - 4 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

NY JETS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun @HOU 24 - 7 W +4.5 +4.5 W +21.5 45.0 44.0 U -13.0 G
09/20/09 Sun NE 16 - 9 W +6 +3 W +10 46.5 45.0 U -20.0 G
09/27/09 Sun TEN 24 - 17 W -3 -1 W +6 36.5 36.0 O + 5.0 G
10/04/09 Sun @NO 10 - 24 L +4.5 +7.5 L -6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/12/09 Mon @MIA 27 - 31 L -3 -3 L -7 37.0 36.5 O +21.5 G
10/18/09 Sun BUF 13 - 16 L -9 -9.5 L -12.5 37.0 35.5 U -6.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @OAK 38 - 0 W -7.5 -6 W +32 35.5 35.0 O + 3.0 G
11/01/09 Sun MIA 25 - 30 L -4 -3.5 L -8.5 40.0 40.5 O +14.5 G
11/15/09 Sun JAC 22 - 24 L -6 -6.5 L -8.5 42.5 41.0 O + 5.0 G
11/22/09 Sun @NE 14 - 31 L +10 +11 L -6 43.5 45.5 U -0.5 G
11/29/09 Sun CAR 17 - 6 W -3 -3.5 W +7.5 42.0 41.5 U -18.5 G
12/03/09 Thu @BUF 19 - 13 W -3 -3.5 W +2.5 37.0 37.0 U -5.0 T
12/13/09 Sun @TB 26 - 3 W -5.5 -3.5 W +19.5 37.0 36.5 U -7.5 G
12/20/09 Sun ATL 7 - 10 L -5.5 -6 L -9 36.5 36.0 U -19.0 G
12/27/09 Sun @IND 29 - 15 W +7 +3.5 W +17.5 42.5 40.5 O + 3.5 T
01/03/10 Sun CIN 37 - 0 W -8 -10 W +27 36.5 33.5 O + 3.5 G
01/09/10 Sat @CIN 24 - 14 W +4 +2.5 W +12.5 36.0 34.0 O + 4.0 G


SAN DIEGO
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/14/09 Mon @OAK 24 - 20 W -7 -10.5 L -6.5 44.5 43.0 O + 1.0 G
09/20/09 Sun BAL 26 - 31 L -4 -1 L -6 39.5 41.0 O +16.0 G
09/27/09 Sun MIA 23 - 13 W -7 -5.5 W +4.5 43.0 44.0 U -8.0 G
10/04/09 Sun @PIT 28 - 38 L +4 +5.5 L -4.5 42.0 43.5 O +22.5 G
10/19/09 Mon DEN 23 - 34 L -6 -3.5 L -14.5 41.0 44.5 O +12.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @KC 37 - 7 W -6 -5.5 W +24.5 43.5 44.0 U 0.0 G
11/01/09 Sun OAK 24 - 16 W -14.5 -16.5 L -8.5 43.0 41.5 U -1.5 G
11/08/09 Sun @NYG 21 - 20 W +4 +5.5 W +6.5 47.0 48.5 U -7.5 G
11/15/09 Sun PHI 31 - 23 W -1.5 -1 W +7 48.0 47.0 O + 7.0 G
11/22/09 Sun @DEN 32 - 3 W -2.5 -6.5 W +22.5 44.5 41.5 U -6.5 G
11/29/09 Sun KC 43 - 14 W -12.5 -13.5 W +15.5 44.5 45.0 O +12.0 G
12/06/09 Sun @CLE 30 - 23 W -11 -13.5 L -6.5 43.0 42.5 O +10.5 G
12/13/09 Sun @DAL 20 - 17 W +3 +3.5 W +6.5 47.0 48.5 U -11.5 T
12/20/09 Sun CIN 27 - 24 W -6 -7 L -4 44.0 44.0 O + 7.0 G
12/25/09 Fri @TEN 42 - 17 W -1 +1.5 W +26.5 46.5 48.0 O +11.0 G
01/03/10 Sun WAS 23 - 20 W -5.5 -3 L 0 42.0 39.0 O + 4.0 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
11/06/05 Sun SD 31 NYJ 26 +5.5 +6.5 NYJ +1.5 42.0 41.0 O +-16 G
09/22/08 Mon NYJ 29 SD 48 -8.5 -8.0 SD +11 42.5 46.0 O +-31 G





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (off) 23.4 17 39 186 4.8 21 12 0.6 144 6.9 330 0.9 0.3 .00
SD (def) 21.9 19 25 100 4.0 35 23 0.7 225 6.4 325 0.8 0.5 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (def) 15.3 16 25 108 4.3 32 18 0.6 168 5.3 276 1.0 0.9 .00
SD (off) 27.5 21 25 79 3.2 34 22 0.6 293 8.6 372 0.8 0.5 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (off) 21.9 17 38 172 4.5 24 13 0.5 151 6.3 323 1.2 0.5 .00
SD (def) 20.0 19 26 118 4.5 33 20 0.6 209 6.3 327 0.9 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (def) 14.7 15 26 103 4.0 32 16 0.5 151 4.7 254 1.1 0.9 .00
SD (off) 28.4 21 27 89 3.3 32 21 0.7 271 8.5 360 0.6 0.4 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

NY JETS (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.7 8.4 12.1 5.6 5.8 0.0 11.4
POINTS ALLOWED 4.8 3.8 8.6 1.0 5.8 0.0 6.8



SAN DIEGO (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.3 8.9 16.2 6.4 5.0 0.0 11.4
POINTS ALLOWED 2.1 9.3 11.4 4.1 6.4 0.0 10.5



NY JETS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 4.8 7.2 12 5.1 4.9 0.0 10
POINTS ALLOWED 3.5 4.1 7.6 2.8 4.2 0.2 7.2



SAN DIEGO (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.4 7.5 13.9 6.7 7.8 0.0 14.5
POINTS ALLOWED 3.2 6.1 9.3 3.6 7.1 0.0 10.7



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
NY JETS 50
SAN DIEGO 55.5 -9.0 1.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 43.5 1 over
 

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Cowboys at Vikings

Cowboys at Vikings

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44)

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo led Dallas to its first postseason victory since 1996 last week. Up next? Future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC playoff semifinal on Sunday.

Line changes

The opening line of Minnesota -3 has gone down to -2.5, while the total of 46 also has dipped slightly to 45.5 with most books.

No home like Dome

The Vikings haven?t just been good at home this season ? they have been virtually unbeatable. Minnesota is a sparkling, 8-0 SU and a solid 5-2-1 ATS in its own back yard this year. And a solid 14-1 SU and 8-6-1 ATS the past two seasons.

"As far as the success we've had at home, it's due to a bunch of things,? Minnesota center John Sullivan told the Star Tribune. ?Crowd, comfort level, we have a good routine, especially playing Sunday noon games.?

But the Cowboys put up a fight on the road. Dallas is 5-3 SU and a respectable 4-4 ATS when it doesn?t sleep in its own beds the night before a game.

Under pressure

Any idiot knows that a quarterback facing a strong pass rush is more likely to commit costly turnovers than one who is able to have all day to find receivers. Don?t expect either Romo or Favre to have much time Sunday.

The Vikings have sacked opposing passers a league-high 48 times and have their rush led by stud defensive end Jared Allen, who is second in the league with 14.5 quarterback takedowns.

But Dallas also knows how to collapse the pocket.

The Cowboys led the league with 59 sacks last year and posted a solid 42 this season. The team is led by outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who has a team high-11 sacks.

"When we look at this team, the train of thought is, 'Hey, you got any tips for playing Dallas? Yeah, block [Spencer] and [Ware] and [Ratliff] first, and go on from there,'" Favre told the Associated Press. "Easier said than done."

Variety is the spice of life

Don?t expect the Vikings to be able to shut down Dallas? attack by simply taking away tight end Jason Witten or stacking the line of scrimmage.

In four straight wins, Dallas has outscored opponents, 99-31. During that span, its 12 touchdowns have been scored by three running backs and five receivers. Romo?s ability to distribute the ball also has been a huge factor. The face of America?s Team completed 63.1 percent of his passes this season for 4,483 yards with 26 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

"It's problematic when all of the sudden you see Patrick Crayton catching balls on third down, then you see Tashard Choice getting a first down, then you see Roy (Williams)," Romo told the Associated Press. "It's tough, and that's part of what you try to do as an offense.?

Nowhere to run

This may come as a shock, but the Vikings have a very middling running game. The unit ranked a distant 12th during the regular season, averaging just 119.1 yards per game and just 4.1 yards per carry.

With a stud back like Adrian Peterson (1,389 yards, 18 TDs), this just can?t happen, especially against a Dallas defense that will be geared to attack the team?s passing game.

?Frankly, as offensive linemen, I don?t think we?ve given [Peterson] an opportunity to do that as much as he needs to do that the last couple of weeks,? Vikings left guard Steve Hutchinson told the Star Tribune. ?We got a little bit back on track.?

Injury report

Dallas running back Marion Barber is probable to start against the Vikings despite aggravating a knee injury each of the past two weeks. He last just three carries last week and Felix Jones was a beast in his place, rushing for 148 yards and a score on 16 carries.

Other Notes

Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings against Minnesota.

Trends

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its past five road playoff games.

The under is 8-2 in Dallas past 10 games overall and is 6-2 in the past eight Minnesota games as well.

Minnesota is just 2-3 ATS in its past five games overall.
 

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Where the action is: NFL playoffs' biggest line moves

Where the action is: NFL playoffs' biggest line moves

Where the action is: NFL playoffs' biggest line moves


Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 -120, 45.5)

Opening Line: 3, 47

Where the early action is:

Point Spread: 69 percent - Vikings
Money Line: 65 percent ? Cowboys
Total: 70 percent - Over
Teasers: 61 percent - Cowboys

Comments: Coming off four straight wins and only allowing an average of 7.75 points in those games, the Cowboys are running hot at the right time. Tony Romo completed 66.7 percent of his passes, had six touchdowns and carried a 100.0 QB rating during that winning streak.

The Vikings also finished off their regular season strong by beating the Giants at home 44-7 where Brett Favre went 25-of-31 for 316, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The odds suggest this will be a close game with the home team only getting a slight edge, but the Vikings are undefeated at home this year. The total has been creeping down all week long, due to a combination of small money and market. We should see some over money and we?ll look to adjust the line back up quickly. There is only a slim chance the line gets bumped up to the key number 3 closer to game time.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7 -105, 42)

Opening Line: 7.5, 42.5

Where the early action is:

Point Spread: 54 percent ? Chargers
Money Line: 91 percent - Jets
Total: 89 percent - Over
Teasers: 79 percent - Chargers

Comments: Huge test here for the Jets. There are a lot of analysts saying how well the Jets matchup against the Chargers. It?s the combination of the Jets No. 1 running offence versus the 20th-ranked Chargers rushing defense and the Jets No. 1 ranked passing defense vs. Chargers No. 5 ranked passing offense.

However, the Chargers are on an 11-game sizzle and have had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game. You can bet they know the ball is coming up the middle. Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez tossed up 20 interceptions this season and because of that, the Chargers game plan is to get Sanchez to throw as often as possible. This line won?t move off of the key number 7.
 

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Jets at Chargers

Jets at Chargers

Jets at Chargers

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7, 42)

Two of the hottest teams in football will be going head-to-head when the Jets visit the Chargers Sunday afternoon. Combined, they have won an unbelievable 17 of their last 18 games.

New York (10-7, 10-7 ATS) won its last two games to just barely snag a playoff spot, then went into Cincinnati and handled the Bengals 24-14 last weekend. The Jets have won six of their last seven.

San Diego (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) started the season 2-3 but is currently riding an incredible 11-game winning streak.

Line movement

The Chargers opened as 8 or 9-point favorites at most betting sites, but the line has since descended to just a touchdown. The total opened at 42.5 and rarely wavered outside of one-point range between 41.5 and 42.5.

Weather or not

Sunny skies and calm wins should be the order of the day for this one. Weather will not be a factor.

Injury report

If the Jets are looking good on the field, the Chargers are looking even better. Same goes for the injury report.

Linebacker Bart Scott was New York?s only player who did not fully participate in Friday?s practice. Despite an ankle injury, Scott is still listed as probable. Quarterback Mark Sanchez, RB Thomas Jones, LB David Harris and DE Shaun Ellis are all good to go.

San Diego is not only the hottest team in football, but also arguably the healthiest. The Chargers list just one player?punter Mike Scifres?on their injury report. Scifres (groin) was a full participant in Friday?s practice and he has been upgraded from questionable to probable.

Charged up

San Diego is eager to reverse what has been a disappointing playoff trend. After winning 10 straight games to earn a first-round bye in 2006, the Chargers lost their playoff opener at home to New England.

One season later they were riding an eight-game winning streak before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Chargers managed to advance one round in last year?s playoffs, but after taking out Indianapolis, their five-game winning streak was halted by Pittsburgh.

If Shawne Merriman has anything to do with it, San Diego is not about to let the postseason pressure get in the way of yet another hot streak.

?We've been there before,? Merriman told reporters. ?We've been the popular pick to win the Super Bowl before and haven't. Our whole mentality this year is completely different, in not looking too far ahead down the road. That's been the big key this year altogether, is not looking too far down the road.?

Merriman has the tough task of leading the Charger defense against a New York rushing attack that was No. 1 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 172.2 yards in 16 regular-season games.

A Rivers runs through it

Philip Rivers (317-for-486, 4254 yards, 28 TDs, nine INTs) is enjoying a second straight outstanding season, shredding defenses left and right. In his last eight games, he has thrown for 14 touchdowns and a mere three interceptions. The Chargers finished the regular season at No. 5 in the NFL in passing offense.

But something will have to give when San Diego and New York go head-to-head.
The Jets were the No. 1 overall defense this season (252.3 ypg) and tops against the pass as well (153.7 ypg). That is thanks in large to cornerback Darrelle Revis, who finished second in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting and will go up against Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (68 rec., 1167 yds, nine TDs).

?I think they're the best defense we're going to play,? running back LaDanian Tomlinson told the media.

Trending topics

The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine outings as underdogs and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as road underdogs.

The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning SU records and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff showdowns.

New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two teams, but they have faced each other just once since 2005.

The over is 6-1-1 in the Jets? last eight games against AFC competition. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers?last four against the AFC, 4-0 in their last five home outings, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.

San Diego (10-5-1 O/U) has been a strong over play this season, but the same cannot be said for New York (7-8-1 O/U).
 
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