Emblem Is Not A Lock

[LUCKY 7]

A friend of mine that is a fairly smart horseman gave me a decent tip this week. He said that War Emblem is going to turn in two great workouts before the belmont that make him look like a lock, but he told me that Sunday Break is in exceptionally great shape. He also told me that Gary Stevens never really asked Sunday Break to run in the Peter Pan. The horse just took off on him at the sixteenth pole and Stevens even contemplated holding him back a little. When Stevens got back to the winners circle he told the trainer this is the horse that will stop Baffert.

Just a little tip I thought I would share with everybody.

Good luck.

 

[Valuist]

Sunday Break will not be a longshot by any means. He was considered by many to be the horse to beat going into the Derby, but couldn't get in due to the flawed earnings clause. I think SB will be around 3-1 tops.

 

[Steve's plays]

I love sunday break over war emblem. Stevens will have him on cruise control into the winners circle.

 

[taipans]

I beg to differ with you Lucky. I saw the race and it looked like Stevens thought he was home free and could just hand ride Sunday break to the wire but Puzzlement was gaining fast on his outside and Stevens had to get into him to get him home. He no question had to ask him to run last last 1/16th of a mile. Now he has to go another 3/8ths of a mile in the Belmont. I don't care what Stevens thinks in the winner's circle, he has not sat aboard War Emblem, if he did he may feel a little less confident with SB.
Baffert will not be denied his 3rd crack at the Triple Crown. Sunday Break will have 2 a-holes when War Emblem gets through with him.

 

[g-hawg]

Any of you guys like Perfect Drift?

 

[SeattleSlew]

Sunday Break has the Drysdale connection, which is a huge plus; but he will be overbet. He had a great set-up in the Wood and couldn't muster a victory, and he won the Peter Pan with a lowly 99 speed fig.....the average Belmont winner has posted a 108; which is way above what Sunday Break has accomplished.

If he wins he can have my money, but I will not bet on him. His odds will not reflect his true chances of winning....I would consider him at 12/1. And the funny thing is, Medaglia D'Oro beat him in the Wood, and Puzzlement came-at-him in deep stretch in the Peter Pan; both will be at twice the price, and a much better investment.

Perfect Drift has posted several consecutive ascending figs, and could be worth a bet (I bet him in the Derby). Unfortunately, horses that have gone straight from the Derby to the Belmont have a poor record.

SLEW

p.s. War Emblem's workouts weren't THAT special. Just a lot of tuning-up.

 

[Valuist]

Perfect Drift may not be a bad price shot. He figures to be near the pace, but not setting it. He ran pretty evenly at CD; the trouble was probably overblown. He steadied very mildly on the far turn, but he saved ground on both turns, which most likely negated any momentum loss from steadying.

 

[LUCKY 7]

Great post SeattleSlew, you make some ineresting points about the beyer figs, and sunday break being overbet.

Good Luck on Saturday

 

[taipans]

Slew,
You hit the nail right on the head.
What do you think about Proud Citizen?
Lukas loved him prior to the derby and preakness but he has been quiet leading up to the belmont. don't know what to make of it.

 

[SeattleSlew]

Proud Citizen could be the best bet in the field with all of the attention being paid to Sunday Break. If War Emblem fails to fire, he is the one to beat....and will be in the 5/1 ballpark by post-time. I'm not a big fan of Lukas, but it's hard to ignore him here: he has won 5 of the last 12 Belmonts!

The conspiracy theorists might wonder if Lukas will actually be trying to win the race, or thwart Baffert's Triple Crown quest (being inside of War Emblem, he could be sent early). And simply put, Proud Citizen has failed to get past WE in two prior attempts.

But the price could make me a believer...
and I have seen too many of these contests to assume the tables can't be turned the third time around..

SLEW

 

[gjn23]

It's no secret that Lukas will send Proud Citizen out this time. The top three for the first 3-4 of the race should be Proud Citizen, War Emblem and Weismans Ferry. The ? is what fractions do they set?
War Emblem showed in the Preakness that he can sit in second for 1/2 mile and then be let lose to grab the lead and yet still have plenty of gas inthe tank down the stretch. But those weren't blistering fractions.

Realistically the only horses I think that can win are:

War Emblem
Perfect Drift
Sunday Break
Proud Citizen
Weismans Ferry (if speed is holding Sat and the fractions aren't crazy)

Since there is not much value in War Emblem, I'll try to beat him.

3-5-6-9/War Emblem/All
3-5-6-9/All/War Emblem

$72 worth of Trifecta combos, that should pay out nicely if War Emblem gets clipped.

 

[Rick]

Very nice, gjn23. I think you pretty much have it nailed. There are only a handful of horses here that have a chance to win here and you have them all mentioned. Also wise to go against WE, he's outside both the speed horses and other main challengers possibly making his trip this time a little different. Good Luck.