England v. South Africa 4th Test (starts 10:45 BST Thursday 21st)

[british bulldog]

The fourth Test at Headingley is set up perfectly following England's victory at Trent Bridge which levelled the five-match series at 1-1. However before we get too carried away with that display it's worth bearing in mind that the moment Michael Vaughan won the toss he was given a gilt-edged chance to claim his first success as England's Test skipper on a pitch that resembled as many cracks as Englands middle order batting in years past.

Everything was going to plan as England racked up 445 in their first innings but there were then some nervous moments as South Africa recovered from 132 for five to 362 all out before skittling the home side for 118 in their second innings. The awful pitch ultimately came to England's rescue and while the momentum is now with them it's far too hasty to say that they are the better team.

However, having got that little warning out of the way we're now going to say why I think they'll win at Headingley this week. First and foremost is that it's becoming abundantly obvious that for England to be at their most effective they need to play on a pitch or in conditions which offer their bowlers a bit of assistance.

Since that astournising test match (Botham's Ashes) back in 1981 there have been 18 positive results out of 20 and the good news for England is that they've won three of the last four including a series clincher against the Proteas in 1998. The character of the pitch has changed slightly in recent years and the balance between bat and ball is much fairer these days but there have still been some emphatic margins of victory - three of the last five Tests have been won by an innings for instance.

England's winning run at Headingley came to an end there last year when they were always fighting a losing battle after India made 628 in their first innings. However the bulk of England's top order have fond memories of the ground - despite its reputation as being a tough track to bat on. Mark Butcher (67.71), Nasser Hussain (52.09), Vaughan (50.66) and Alec Stewart (48.07) all average more at Headingley than in their test careers as a whole.

Contrast that with many of South Africa's top order who haven't played a Test in Leeds before which must count against them. As far as the bowling is concerned the skiddy action of James Kirtley should again be hugely effective and he can build on his man-of-the-match display in Nottingham. The home side's chances have been given a massive boost by the fact that South Africa will be missing their key bowler in Shaun Pollock. Pollock was always going to jet home to be with his wife for the birth of their first child and while that's entirely understandable his absence couldn't have come at a worse time for the Proteas. He was far and away their best bowler at Trent Bridge and the last time South Africa played at Headingley he picked up eight wickets.

The emergence of Andrew Hall at least goes some way to making up for Pollock but it's impossible to underestimate the degree of control that he still exerts. Pollock has continued to bowl an immaculate line and length, (much in the Glen McGrath role for Australia) and this has continued to frustrate the English batsmen.

We've also started to see the first chinks in the armour of skipper Graeme Smith. There was no way he could carry on in the same vein as the first two Tests and while he's still the prized wicket (especially as Jacques Kallis is patently going to take a little time to get back to his best), it's a big ask for him to raise his troops in the space of three days because they were within touching distance of a 2-0 lead.

Instead of that unbeatable advantage they are now locked at 1-1 and with a batting paradise at The Oval to come it's got to be odds-on that whoever wins at Headingley will win the series.

Notice I am ruling out the draw, the stalemate rarely offers any value these days and certainly not at a ground that's only seen two out of the last 20. The forecast is also relatively promising. It could be overcast (ideal for the bowlers) with the chance of showers on the opening two days but should be fine after that - which also provides plenty of time to make up for any early interruptions.

It's England to win the match then for me at Sporting Odds' stand-out 2/1, 23/10 available on the exchanges (Betfair) and I am going to also suggest three other confident bets.

Mark Butcher received one of the best balls of the match in the second innings at Trent Bridge but his first innings century was a joy to behold. He was simply carrying on where he left off after his 70 in the second innings at Lord's so he comes into this game in prime form. This is the ground where he played the innings of his life to beat the Australians and he's scored no fewer than 474 runs in four Tests in Leeds. Indeed when he last faced the South Africans here in 1998 he scored a superb 116.

I had toyed with the idea of backing Butcher to be England's top run scorer along with Nasser Hussain who is looking rejuvenated after relinquishing the captaincy and with a good Headingley record to boot. However I feel the way to go is in the player performance market at Bet365 which has been very profitable for follows of my recommendations in the past. Butcher needs to get 78 points or more based on 1pt per run, 20pts per wicket and 10pts per catch.

In his current form and with an average of just under 70 at Headingley he should be able to do that with the bat alone but he's also likely to get plenty of catching practice in the slips (averages fractionally under a catch a match) and may even get a bowl if the ball is swinging about.

My next recommendation is to oppose Andrew Flintoff in the player performance market. I reckon that taking the 5/6 about him mustering less than 105 points is the way to go. It wasn't entirely tongue-in-cheek when he likened his role as a bowler for England at the moment to a "shire horse" as he's largely been asked to tie up an end by Vaughan. And he's done a very effective job of that - arguably 'earning' plenty of wickets for his fellow bowlers - but no points are awarded for his economy rate by Bet365's scoring system! He was also asked to bowl no fewer than 50 overs at Trent Bridge so if anyone is likely to be feeling the effects of back-to-back games it's him.

Admittedly he's looked better than ever with the bat but he's scored the grand total of zero runs and faced just 11 balls in his four completed innings to date at Headingley so it's safe to say it isn't one of his favourite grounds! To get 105 points therefore looks a massive ask and if ever there's a time to oppose him it looks to be now.

Boucher has played himself into decent nick with the bat. A swashbuckling innings at Lords followed by a gutsy half century in the second innings of the last test on a pitch that any bowler would have liked to have rolled up and put away in the back of the car for another day. He has looked far from happy behind the stumps on occassions but kept well in difficult circumstances last time taking nine catches.

It's this form with the bat and the possibility of several catching chances on a wicket that has assistance to seam bowling that warrants a play on the player performance market at Bet365. He's asked to score 90 points or more which is well within his compass. Last test, those nine catches would have made this recommendation a winner without the 100 runs he scored in the process.

So there you have it. Four solid advices and best of luck to those that play.

Recap:

England to win 4th Test 2/1 @ 2 points

Butcher 78 points and over 5/6 @ 1.5 points
Flintoff under 105 points 5/6 @ 1.5 points
Boucher 90 points and over 5/6 @ 1.5 points

 

[Pumpkin]

SAF fight back after a very poor start. Still think the game is anyone's. A few quick wickets and England are on the frontfoot, Zondecki has done well with the bat but with Ntini and Pretourious to come the job is half done. However another 100 runs and SAF and the draw take hold.

England still look the better of the sides and the stats put forward by BB on the English batsmen only help this. No Pollock takes away from Ntini as the batsmen aren't forced to attempt to score off him as Pollock is miserly at best. Vaughan or Trescothick are yet to fire this series and like the recent Ashes series with no McGrath. they may feel they will have more chances to score and not chance their arm as much.

At this stage still can't find a solid play and will sit tight, but may be tempted into England if the pricegets past 2-1

 

[royalfan]

I followed your picks bulldog. Thanks for the insight. A couple quiestions. How in the world do you find out the score and how long or how many does does this thing take. I know nothing about cricket whatsoever starting with the rules. Any insight on how to see how the bets are doing would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

[The Incentive]

Royalfan


A test match goes for a maximum of 5 days, each day has about 6hours of play.

http://www.cricket.org/link_to_database/NATIONAL/AUS/


This is where i get my scores from.


Gl

 

[british bulldog]

Write up on Day 1 proceedings

Write up on Day 1 proceedings

Gary Kirsten scored a fabulously well-paced 109 not out, his 18th in Tests and unquestionably one of his most valuable, to haul South Africa towards a total of some potency on the first day of the fourth Test at Headingley. After winning the toss and choosing to bat despite a typically cloudy Leeds morning, South Africa were reduced to 21 for 4 inside the first hour, but recovered to reach 260 for 7 by the close.

Kirsten's innings was one of three distinct parts. He came to the crease in the very first over of the morning, added just 15 runs in an attritional afternoon session, and then let rip after tea, as he was joined by the nerveless debutant Monde Zondeki, who frustrated England's bowlers with 50 not out, his maiden first-class half-century.

The pair added 118 for the eighth wicket ? a new record for South Africa against England, and higher even than the 117 that Ian Botham and Graham Dilley added in their famous partnership against Australia in 1981. Between them, Kirsten and Zondeki had transformed Graeme Smith's decision to bat from reckless to bold.

The early part of the day had been all England. At the start of the series, you would have got long odds on a seam attack comprising James Kirtley, Martin Bicknell and Kabir Ali, but by the time each man had taken a wicket in his first over, South Africa were in complete disarray.

Kirtley, whose figures of 6 for 34 had wrapped up England's victory at Trent Bridge on Monday, picked up exactly where he had left off, with the huge wicket of Smith off the fourth ball of the day. Smith might have considered himself unlucky at Nottingham, but he had no alibis this time as he wafted at a wide delivery and snicked a low chance to Alec Stewart, who dived in front of first slip with all the athleticism of old (2 for 1).

Then Bicknell, with his second delivery after a ten-year absence from Tests, dismissed Herschelle Gibbs for 0. The ball left Gibbs off the seam and found the edge of his defensive prod, and Stewart held a more straightforward chance (2 for 2). Bicknell's nagging accuracy and prodigious seam movement was too much for Jacques Kallis as well, and when Michael Vaughan clung onto a screaming cover-drive in front of his nose, Bicknell's figures read 6-5-2-2 ? not even the absent Shaun Pollock could have outdone him.

Kabir Ali, the newest new boy in the side, was eventually thrown the ball in the 15th over of the day, and his fifth ball was an absolute pearler - fast, full and on off stump - that Neil McKenzie had no option but to nibble to Stewart for 4.

But England lost their way after that. James Anderson's first spell was wayward, and while Kirsten kept his head down, Jacques Rudolph cashed in. His innings, his first half-century of the series, was particularly notable for his judicious use of the late cut, which forced the bowlers to tighten their line of attack and concentrate on his stumps. But each time they strayed too far onto his legs, he was ready with a series of well-timed clips.

Rudolph had his luck, however, with one edge off Flintoff falling just short of Mark Butcher at second slip, but on another day he might have got away with the ball that eventually dismissed him. Kabir, who had rightly had a huge shout for caught-behind off Kirsten turned down, landed one just on the line of leg stump to trap Rudolph lbw for 55 (116 for 5).

It should have been the vital breakthrough. Mark Boucher played a chancy innings of 16, before falling to Andrew Flintoff on the stroke of tea, and when Flintoff found an extra gear or ten to blast Andrew Hall from the crease for his second golden duck in four days, South Africa were 142 for 7 with just a lengthy tail to come.

Zondeki's arrival was Kirsten's wake-up call. On 28, he had sparred a Flintoff delivery into the waiting hands of James Anderson at backward point only for the Umpire to call no-ball. But there was no more uncertainty to his strokeplay after tea. He began to take on the bowling with a series of calculated drives and hooks, and Zondeki responded by driving Flintoff down the ground for his first runs in Test cricket.

Zondeki had expected to make history later in the match, by joining Makhaya Ntini in the first all-black South African new-ball partnership. But he is becoming used to making the grand entrance. Last winter in an ODI against Sri Lanka, he took a wicket with his first ball in international cricket. He reached his half-century in the final over of the day, a deft cut for four off Flintoff, and retained his composure to dead-bat the last five deliveries.

England's attack, so irresistible in the morning, had been unable to rise to South Africa's challenge. Bicknell was troubled by a dodgy hamstring and remained out of the attack until the new ball was taken, while Kirtley was off the pace after his week of nonstop excitement. They had anticipated a clean kill and a continuation of their Trent Bridge momentum. But now they have it all to do.


BULLDOGS VERDICT

What started out as a match winning performance for England in the first hour of the day became frustration by the close. Kirsten's performance was out of the top draw and was a joy to watch from a South African and a neutrals point of view.

England must re-group over night and not let the total get out of hand. They must look to restrict South Africa to less than 350 runs. The wicket will get easier to bat on for day two and three and England must use this time in the match to post a lead of around 150 runs. Without the services of Pollock, England will be able to score at an above average rate (look for around 4 runs an over) and if able to do so England will make time in the match.

The Draw does look favourite at present, but this ground has only produced two draws in the last twenty tests played there. The bounce becomes more un-even and the cloud cover will always aid the swing bowlers.

On the betting recommendations, I would still rather be with an England win. The player performance bets stand at Boucher (requires 90 > pts) 16, Butcher (requires 78 > pts) and Flintoff (requires 104 < pts) 40.

 

[royalfan]

thanks for the scoreboard link. Now i need to become a rocket scientist to figure out what anything means. I have a feeling i will just have to look at my account in a few days and see if I won. If someone could give insight along the way to inform me on chances of winning the different wagers it would be most helpful. Never been so baffled by anything in my life.

 

[british bulldog]

Write up on Day 2 proceedings

Write up on Day 2 proceedings

A sparkling 142-run stand between Mark Butcher and Marcus Trescothick gave England the honours of the second day of the fourth Test at Headingley. After South Africa had kept England waiting in the field for the majority of the morning session to reach 342, Butcher and Trescothick made up for lost time as England closed on 197 for 3, 145 runs behind.

They initially had to ride some tight and effective seam bowling after Michael Vaughan was unluckily dismissed shortly after lunch. But as the ball, and the bowlers, lost their zip, they picked up the pace in style. Butcher emphatically cover-drove Andrew Hall to get going, and Trescothick followed that with a cracking straight-drive off Monde Zondeki. Perhaps Zondeki was feeling the effects of his unexpected batting heroics, as he had to leave the field in the afternoon session with a side-strain.

The bowlers charged in and swung the ball, but England's two left-handers became more assured and latched on to anything loose. Butcher was in sparkling form. After he had Hall for two boundaries in three balls, he brought up his fifty with a sumptuous square-cut in Hall's next over. It took Butcher 74 balls to score his half-century, and Trescothick struggled to keep up. He brought his fifty up in 116 balls, with another punishing square-cut, this time off Makhaya Ntini.

The pair continued to smash the ball to all parts, and England were rampant. But just as Graeme Smith was scratching his head, the umpires brought out the light-meters and, surprisingly, the batsmen accepted their offer, much to the crowd's disgust. They re-emerged 20 minutes later and in a late twist to the day, Jacques Kallis struck back with the wickets of Trescothick and then Butcher to give South Africa a much-needed boost.

He first took a wonder catch off his own bowling. Attempting to whip a fullish ball through the leg side, Trescothick (59) clipped a leading edge which Kallis athletically clung onto diving to his right (169 for 2). He then conjured a beauty of an away swinger which Butcher nibbled to Mark Boucher for a dazzling 77 (193 for 3).

Nasser Hussain was again in good touch, stroking three fours in his 14 not out, while Ed Smith had to face only three balls before the players again went off for bad light, this time for good, with 16 overs unbowled in the day.

Kallis's two late wickets may have taken some of the shine off England's day, but their solid performance will help Vaughan to forget not only another unlucky dismissal, the ball rolled off his bat and clipped his leg stump, just dislodging a bail - but also a frustrating morning in which it took England an hour and 45 minutes to wrap up the South African first innings.

James Anderson finally ended the 150-run eighth-wicket partnership when Zondeki edged him to Butcher for a gutsy 59. Gary Kirsten continued in his determined manner until he lofted Kabir Ali straight to Martin Bicknell at mid-on for a magnificent 130. It was a tame ending to one of the finest of his 18 Test hundreds, which was the cornerstone of South Africa's fighting innings.

Ntini further irritated England by clubbing 32 not out, including four boundaries. He added 26 with Dewald Pretorius, who hung around until he nicked James Kirtley to Alec Stewart, leaving England to face one over before lunch. This time Trescothick survived.


BULLDOGS VERDICT

England managed to dismiss South Africa just before lunch for what was only an average first innings score. That being said, England would have expected to bowl them out for less than 200 when South Africa were 142 for 7.

The game is balanced right now between the draw and an England victory, barring any calamitries. I'm still happy to be holding onto an England win voucher.

England trial by less than 150 runs and scored at a clip of over 4 runs an over. They have another 30 overs before the new ball is due and as long as a front line batsman is still at the crease, England will be about 50 runs behind and pressing for that vital first innings lead they need of around 100 runs.

We have a winning bet already with Butcher scoring 77 runs (77 points) adding to his one catch (worth 10 points) to bring his total to 87 points.

Boucher took 1 catch to move his points total to 26 (still require 64 points) and Flintoff didn't add to his total of 40 which is good news.

I will be back sometime after 8pm British Summer time tomorrow with Day 3's report. Until then, keep hold of those betting vouchers and lets hope for an un-interupted day's play and England driving home the advantage.

 

[royalfan]

Thanks bulldog. still cant make heads or tails out of the writeup but I know this much. If we have a winning ticket it is good and if someone didnt score today and we have the under on him it is good. And if you deem it 50--50 on england winning at 1.75-1 odds then that is also good. Sounds like we might struggle to get the over on that other fella. Thanks for the writeup.

 

[british bulldog]

Royalfan

Take it easy. If we win we win, if not, don't worry. Contributors to this forum will tell you this is one of my main sports. There is plenty of cricket all over the world that we will win money on during these wet and cold winter months.


Flintoff (under 105) I feel has a good chance of going over this total now that he has taken 2 wickets (20 points for each) on day 1. He will bowl again and has yet to bat atleast once and possibly twice.

Boucher (over 90) I feel will go over this total and be a winner for us. He is the wicket keeper and should pick up another three catches or more. That will be an additional 30 points putting him on 56. We then need him to bat like he did last week and make sufficient runs to get to 90. If the above comes to effect, then that will be 34 runs.

Check back every day around 8pm British time, 3pm Eastern time.

 

[Pumpkin]

Bulldog,

I think the first session in Day 3 will decied this test, particulary the 1st hour. If Hussain and Smith can score 40+ in that hour I think they will get a lead of 150 or even 200 if Stewert or Flintoff fire.

 

[british bulldog]

Write up on Day 3 proceedings

Write up on Day 3 proceedings

Gary Kirsten edged South Africa's nose in front in an intriguing two-horse race as they closed on 164 for 5 ? a valuable lead of 199 - after England crumbled to 307 soon after lunch on the third day of the fourth Test at Headingley.

Just as he was in the first innings, Kirsten was South Africa's main man as he and Jacques Kallis put on 97; the highest third-wicket partnership for South Africa at Headingley, after Herschelle Gibbs and Graeme Smith were both out lbw early in the innings. Kirsten was his usual model of concentration, playing the ball late and despatching the bad balls in his five boundaries. He did get away with a faint glove down the leg side off Andrew Flintoff to Alec Stewart when on 38, but he put it out of his mind to reach his 30th Test fifty off 110 balls.

Kallis was much more assured than in the last Test at Trent Bridge and he slowly pressed down the accelerator with the odd boundary, including a pull for six off Flintoff and a dashing cover-drive off Martin Bicknell. He grew in authority and, ball by ball, the pair crushed England's early hopes when they had South Africa on the ropes at 31 for 2.

However, James Kirtley finally broke the record partnership when he had Kallis caught behind for a fighting 41. Kirtley moved a good-length ball slightly off the seam and Kallis nibbled a faint edge through to Stewart (128 for 3). And Kabir Ali followed that with a fierce inducker which trapped Kirsten plumb in front of middle for an authoritative 60 (139 for 4). Suddenly there was a spring in England's step, as there had been when Kirtley nailed Gibbs lbw in the third over and when Bicknell did for Smith soon after. Trying to whip one through the leg side (no surprise there), Smith missed a full straight one (31 for 2).

Jacques Rudolph then perished with three overs to go when caught at short leg by Ed Smith off James Anderson (160 for 5), but Neil McKenzie and Mark Boucher hung on till the end of another fluctuating day's play. And, despite England's late fightback, South Africa will feel it is theirs, especially after Makhaya Ntini and Andrew Hall, with a bit of help from Rudolph, wrapped up England's first innings for 307. Flintoff was again to the fore with a bludgeoning 55, but England lost their last five wickets for 47 runs, meaning South Africa held a precious first-innings lead of 35.

Rudolph picked up a wicket ? and one heck of an important one ? with only his second ball in Test cricket. He conned Nasser Hussain into the drive with a beauty of a leg-break. The ball drifted towards legside and dipped just before Hussain chipped it straight back to Rudolph (261 for 6). Hussain stood brooding at the ground for a few seconds reflecting his loose stroke. He knew its importance.

Flintoff banished his Headingley hoodoo with a controlled pull shot to bring up his first Test run at the ground in five attempts, and he went on to hammer a brisk 55 with four fours and three sixes. He again demonstrated why he is such a pivotal member of the side. He did his best to wrestle control back from South Africa with his crashing boundaries, including a huge six over square leg off Ntini to bring up his fifty. But after Hussain fell and the new ball was taken, Flintoff ran out of partners. Bicknell was bowled all ends up by Ntini (289 for 7) and Kabir Ali and Kirtley then both poked Hall to Boucher and England had slipped from even favourites to outsiders.

Kallis earlier got South Africa off to the perfect start when Smith edged him to Boucher the very first ball of the day (197 for 4). Stewart then played the grafting role his team needed until he swatted an ungainly pull off Dewald Pretorius to Hall at square leg (239 for 5). Batting wasn't easy, but Hussain stood firm. Leaving anything wide of off stump he waited for the bad ball and relied on timing rather than power. It was another perfectly-paced innings from Hussain until he fell to Rudolph in the second over after lunch and started the collapse.




BULLDOGS VERDICT

Well it has started to rear it's ugly head again England and their middle order to tail collapse's. There have been several turning points in this game and most have been England's un-doing. This test should be all but over with an England victory in sight, yet we move into day 4 with South Africa favourites. But don't dispair those that have backed England. Spouth Africa will need a lead of around 350 for almost certain victory. A lead of 300+ will make it interesting and anything around the 260 to 280 mark well, it will be up for grabs.

Let's have alook at those un-doings.

1. England have Kirsten caught when on 18 off a no-ball, he goes on to make 130 runs.

2. South Africa are 142 for 7 wickets in the first innings and England bowl poorly from there on allowing another 200 runs for the 3 remaining wickets.

3. England batsmen have South Africa on the ropes knocking the bowling to all parts of the ground and at 160 for 1 wicket they accept bad light after spanking the previous 15 delivereies for 23 runs.

4. They resume 25 minutes later after accepting bad light and lose two wickets both off whom were set and batting well prior to leaving for bad light.

5. The middle order and tail doesn't wag and from 160 for 1 wicket, England are all out for 307.

6 Kirsten is out caught behind for 38 yet the umpire gives him not out. Another decission which costs England.


On the betting front, I have to be realistic and say that England have a mountain to climb where the game stands at present. If and it is a big if, England can take the last 5 wickets for less than 100 runs then it is Game On.

As I said in yesterdays column, Butcher was a winner in the player performance market and barring accidents Boucher will be a winner aswell. He took 4 catches to go with his 16 runs in first innings making up to present total of 56 points. We need 90 so we are 34 short. 2 more points are yet to be added as he's 2 not out in the second innings. If South Africa are to win this test then they need 10 wickets and you would think that Boucher will take 3 catches on a wicket that is still seaming around.

Flintoff made a spectacular 55 to go with his 2 wickets putting him onto 95 points so this one is not looking to good at present and I am resigned to it losing.

I hope to be back tomorrow with some far better news and until then, it's good bye from the bulldog who still likes to bite.

 

[royalfan]

thanks for the update bulldog

 

[british bulldog]

I am sorry to all those that followed me with the plays I recommended. Although the Test itself has not concluded, you can take it from me that it all but has as England are up against it to win this match after yet another poor bowling display and not much better with the bat.

It makes you wonder if England really have a killer or knock out punch as they have managed to take the the top 7 South African wickets in each innings for a total of close on 350 runs and the last 3 wickets of both innings for the same amount of runs. Now the total amount of runs for the last 3 wickets in both innings should really not exceed 100 in total. so that extra 200 runs has really killed England.

I staked a total of 6.5 points with 2 points on an English victory and 3 x 1.5 points on player performances. Two of those picks were winners so the loss for this thread was 1 point. This will be put into my profit / loss column in the community pages over the next few days.

Look out for possible plays these next two weeks with the U.S. Open Tennis starting Monday.

Thanks for those who contributed to this thread and let's hope that the money lost on this event is only lent to the bookmakers.

 

[royalfan]

thanks again for the picks bulldog. Not a big loss at all. You will get em next time. Good luck in us open.

 

[Pumpkin]

No worries Bulldogs will be willing to follow your plays anytime.

Worrying trend developing for Eng. They seem to only win games in tight contests, yet mange to get blown away when they lose.

How far away is Simon Jones from a recovery?