England vs. Australia 3rd Test

[british bulldog]

Let's quickly go over the results from the 2nd Test. A profit of 2.5 points were gained as Karmison lost in his match-up against Flintoff and the later also won man of the match. The profit was gained from recommending the Pommies at 6.00 for 1 points. The match-up of McGrath and Lee was void because McGrath took no part.



Moving onto the 3rd Test and the momentum has swung England's way. I must point out that over the last 5 years when test's are played back-to-back (less than a week inbetween games) the winning side win or draw 82% of the time.

I have been going on for some time how Australia would struggle when they eventually lose the services of both McGrath and Warne. Well the 2nd Test showed that fact up. If it had not been for Warne with his bowling, England would have won the 2nd Test as easily as Australia had won the first.

I wasn't aware of the fact until it was highlighted on the television that Australia allow 120 more runs on average per innings when McGrath is not in the team. That is an alarming stat for Austarlians and clearly shows how important their strike bowler is to his team.

Traditionally, Old Trafford the venue for the 3rd Test is renowned for being a turning wicket from day 1 of a test. The groundsman is confident that will not be the case this time around. It will be hard and fast with plenty of bounce. That will still make Warne a handful to play but not as much as first feared.

If Australia are to win this test then it will be Warne who will cause the damage as the pitch starts to wear from day 3 onwards (if it gets that far).

The books have been quick to react to England's performance and there is absolutly no value in any of the three possible results unless you are a die hard Australian who would back your country to win even if they were in the Downhill sking or Bobsleigh at the Olympics.

So my recommendations for the 3rd Test are as follows;


1 point S. Warne (Man of the Match) @ 9.00

2 points Warne to beat Giles (2 player match-up) @ 1.72

1 point J. Langer (top Australian bat .. both innings combinded) @ 5.50

1 point M. Clarke (top Australian bat .. both innings combinded) @ 7.00

 

[PAWAQATSI]

unless you are a die hard Australian who would back your country to win even if they were in the Downhill sking or Bobsleigh at the Olympics.

Where can I bet on this??

 

[british bulldog]

I like your humor Pawa !!!


If you haven't heard Lee plays and McGrath is being assessed in the morning after coming through a bowling session at 3/4 pace.

 

[Anders]

Aus +131 (1.5 units)

 

[british bulldog]

Laying AUSTRALIA @ 2.98 (Tea Day 1)

Lay 9.9 units to win 5 units


Pitch excellant to bat on. By the time the first innings are over from both teams we will be into the fourth day.

I feel this test will end in a draw, but I am opposed to wagering on draws in Test cricket as I have won ?'s laying draws for the last 3 years. So the next best option is to lay Australia as they have the worst of the pitch to bat on batting last on the fourth / fifth days.

 

[british bulldog]

After the rain fell in Manchester for most of the day, which only helped one team ... Australia, as it took time out of the match, we are set for an interesting 2 days of cricket.

Play for the last 2 days start an hour earlier and in the past in English climatic conditions, that has aided the bowlers.

Australia's tail has wagged again and if the English bowling attack has shown one weakness over the last 2 years of their progression, it's the fact that they find the task of knocking over the tail the hardest.

I can't see Australia making much more than 60 more runs which still puts England in a healthy position with a lead of around 120 runs. The way the English batsman are taking the game to the Aussie bowlers knocking them around the park at around 4 runs an over, batting just 60 overs should see England around the 220 mark. So that's a lead of around 340. That total will prove very hard to get on a wicket that is starting to take excessive turn.

England's main worry will be Warne who will bowl from one end non-stop after about a 6 or 7 over opening spell burst from Brett Lee. How England decide to play Warne will have the most significant bearing on the game. If they allow him to dictate then England could be bowled out quite cheaply and allow Australia back into the game. On the other hand, if England are positive and take the game to Warne like Pietersen and Flintoff have then Australia have only one possible result to aim at and that is a draw. Another factor to take on board is;

(a) if Australia take 2 or 3 quick wickets they can continue to attack and have fielders around the bat when warne is bowling, or

(b) England bat well early on and the scoreboard ticks over at a steady rate, then Ponting will have to set fields with sweepers on both the off and leg side, so becoming less aggresive in field placings.


As the match stands, this is a game for England to win or lose with Australia sitting on the fence hoping for a draw or a English collapse.


As for the recommendations, depending on how the first 30 minutes go on day 4, I might just back Australia for a guaranteed profit.

If Warne gets 4 or 5 wickets in the second innings he must have a good chance of winning man-of-the-match as the innings he has played with the bat has certainly saved Australia so far. If England win then Vaughan gets the nod, if it's a draw then it's a toss up between Vaughan and Warne. An Australian win and warne wins it hands down.

 

[british bulldog]

LUNCH Day 4;


Back Australia @ 7.4 @ 1.55 units


What I am doing here in effect is covering the lay part of the wager I made on Day 1.

If Australia win I win 0.02 units.

If either England win or the Test ends in a Draw I win 3.45 units.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

 

[british bulldog]

A captain's innings by Ponting saved Australia. Since the first ball of this Test Match England dominated every session accept two. Those two sessions saw the Aussie's tail wag and save the follow on in the first innings and the hour and half partnership between Warne and Ponting in the final session.

That's now three test gone and two to play and it's clear at this stage that England are the better side in the bowling department despite Australia having two bowlers with over 1100 test wickets between them.

It is now clear that Australia need to introduce new blood and talent into a flagging bowling attack. Admittedly, McGrath will be fitter for the fourth test, but Warne was innocuous in the second innings and Gillespie just isn't hitting the pitch with the same venom of a few years back.

The rest of the cricketing world be be sitting up and taking notice of how England have taken the game to Australia upping the tempo of scoring runs to a new high. It was the Aussies that moved cricket forward from the average of 2.5 runs per over up to 3 and a bit runs on average. England have now taken it to beyond 3.5 runs an over and the Australian's who love to compete, are trying to match England but are getting out through their attacking nature. It's been along time since Australia have had to play competitive test cricket and this is having an effect on them.

These tests have been entertaining all the way through and I'm sure there is plenty more to come. It's funny to think that Australia will walk away from this test thinking they won.

That thought however just might give Australia some momentum to take into the fourth test and to be honest, they need all the momentum they can get. If England continue to produce at the level they are presently playing at, it will be difficult for Australia to win either of the last two test's. They can take great heart from this series.


As for the recommendations, I managed to produce another profit, although small, it still moves the bank roll along in the + column.

3rd TEST

1 point S. Warne (Man of the Match) @ 9.00 LOST

2 points Warne to beat Giles (2 player match-up) @ 1.72 WON

1 point J. Langer (top Australian bat .. both innings combinded) @ 5.50 LOST

1 point M. Clarke (top Australian bat .. both innings combinded) @ 7.00 LOST

Laid AUSTRALIA (Tea Day 1) @ 2.98 Lay 9.9 units to win 5 units WON

Back Australia @ 7.4 @ 1.55 units LOST


PROFIT = +1.89 points