First four are plays
Other leans Tampa, NOrleans, GBay
Houston at Indy- One of the most basic plays you can make in any sport, especially in the NFL, is to fade a favorite with a poor defense. Here we have the 31st ranked defense in the league laying a boatload of points to a Houston team that can light up the scoreboard pretty good itself. The Colts defense gives up a whopping 402 ypg and 26 ppg on 8.2 yppass and 4.6ypr. They have given up 103 points in their last 3 games. That is not the stuff that 9 point favorites are made of in the NFL. Indy is still very banged up in the secondary, and Houston QB Carr averaging 8.6yppass, second only to Manning and the Colts passing attack. Realize that the Colts will put up points here, but must note that Texans have the better defense by over 50 ypg. Indy put a great emphasis on the Monday nighter with Minny, and now have a short week to prepare for a hungry Texan team that is playing to stay in the AFC playoff hunt. This Houston bunch plays every game hard, and have won at the hostile venues of Kansas City and Tennessee and lost at Minnesota in overtime. Capers rates the edge in our book, and tech stuff shows that he loves this time of year as his teams are 6-0$ off a SU loss in November, and 6-2 as dogs in November. Also have a 10-1 system that points to the Texans as well as a basic 91-52 (63%) long term winner that says to play against any winning NFL team off a win against a winning team last game and loss to a losing team the game before. The Colts of course fit this play against angle. Texans have covered 6 of their last 7 w/revenge, and we think they hang around against a Colts team that has showed no sign of being able to stop anybody.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland- If Big Ben hasn't been given the key to the city already, it will be in his locker Monday morning if he can pull this one out. He has passed every test thrown at him with flying colors thus far, on the road against the division is his next contest. Pittsburgh has won three straight games as an underdog, but they are now the favorite. Teams in that situation are 3-13$, and teams off 6 SU wins and 3 ATS wins are a 68% play against as well. Teams are never as good as their best game in the NFL, and we will see how the Pittsburgh come off their state championship win vs.Philly. The Browns are 4-0 ATS on this field this year, and 9-2 as a division dog under Davis. Think they can take this one to the wire. Take the points.
NY Giants at Arizona- The Giants just can't play as a favorite, they may not have to here as this line floating closer to a pick'em as we speak. Improving Arizona squad improving on offense with addition of RB Hambrick and return of WR Bolden. Giants allowing 4.5 ypc, and that was WITH starting DE's Washington and Strahan, both lost for the season. We have numerous technical angles backing our opinion here. The best of the bunch may be that teams off a home favorite loss to drop to 5-3 are 0-11$ since 1993. Cards 8-3 to the number last 11 on this field, and could be a play-on team for the second half of the season. We'll start today.
Over Tampa Bay/Atlanta- We're leaning to the Bucs here as Gruden one of the best in the business as a dog, and Bucs have the 71 yard better defense. They have also covered 6 out of 7 between these two. We have a decision to make there. The decision already made on the over, as Bucs banged up across the defensive front, and Atlanta averaging 4.9ypr. 10 of the last 12 between these two teams have gone over, the last 3 have not only gone over the total, but have gone over today's total as well. Falcons have given up 97 in their last 2 games, and Bucs offense improving by the game since Pittman has returned, Clayton has emerged, and they are more healthy at receiver. Looking for a high scoring affair in the Georgia Dome.
Baltimore at NY Jets- The Ravens have two offenses, the 11 guys they put on the field WITH the ball, and the 11 guys they put on the field when the OTHER TEAM has the ball. The first one sucks, the second one....isn't that bad. You go ahead and bet Quincy Carter against this defense. Baltimore 39-19$ in the month of November.
Detroit at Jacksonville- Lean to the Ville, they supposedly are very high on David Garrard. Try to stay away from home favorites off of a bye week, though.
Seattle at St.Louis- Seattle beat this team all over the field last time around, that is before Mike Holmgrem coached the last 5 minutes of the game like he was playing X-Box. We'll pass this time around, no not you Mike...you RUN, this time around. RUN THE BALL. As for the other Mike? 2-9 $ off of a SU fav loss
KC at NO- Lean to the home dog against porous Chiefs D. No Priest and the line is still this high?
Cincy at Washington- Washington got a lucky last week, but would only lay the points here as Cincy hasn't covered on the road all year, giving up 30 pgg. Possible under, if Cincy starts playing D on the road like they do at home (12 ppg)
Minny at GBay- Green Bay healthier than they have been all year, and Favre and company 12-4 $ last 16 vs..600> foes. Gotta give the Pack a look.
Carolina at San Francisco- Pass, my God pass
Buffalo at New England- We've seen Willis run, now lets see how he picks up blitzes. Buff defense leading charge, but look at the offenses they have played lately. Miami, Baltimore, Arizona and the Jets without Pennington for half the game. Not fading Pats who have covered 6 of the last 7 between these two. Possible over.
Other leans Tampa, NOrleans, GBay
Houston at Indy- One of the most basic plays you can make in any sport, especially in the NFL, is to fade a favorite with a poor defense. Here we have the 31st ranked defense in the league laying a boatload of points to a Houston team that can light up the scoreboard pretty good itself. The Colts defense gives up a whopping 402 ypg and 26 ppg on 8.2 yppass and 4.6ypr. They have given up 103 points in their last 3 games. That is not the stuff that 9 point favorites are made of in the NFL. Indy is still very banged up in the secondary, and Houston QB Carr averaging 8.6yppass, second only to Manning and the Colts passing attack. Realize that the Colts will put up points here, but must note that Texans have the better defense by over 50 ypg. Indy put a great emphasis on the Monday nighter with Minny, and now have a short week to prepare for a hungry Texan team that is playing to stay in the AFC playoff hunt. This Houston bunch plays every game hard, and have won at the hostile venues of Kansas City and Tennessee and lost at Minnesota in overtime. Capers rates the edge in our book, and tech stuff shows that he loves this time of year as his teams are 6-0$ off a SU loss in November, and 6-2 as dogs in November. Also have a 10-1 system that points to the Texans as well as a basic 91-52 (63%) long term winner that says to play against any winning NFL team off a win against a winning team last game and loss to a losing team the game before. The Colts of course fit this play against angle. Texans have covered 6 of their last 7 w/revenge, and we think they hang around against a Colts team that has showed no sign of being able to stop anybody.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland- If Big Ben hasn't been given the key to the city already, it will be in his locker Monday morning if he can pull this one out. He has passed every test thrown at him with flying colors thus far, on the road against the division is his next contest. Pittsburgh has won three straight games as an underdog, but they are now the favorite. Teams in that situation are 3-13$, and teams off 6 SU wins and 3 ATS wins are a 68% play against as well. Teams are never as good as their best game in the NFL, and we will see how the Pittsburgh come off their state championship win vs.Philly. The Browns are 4-0 ATS on this field this year, and 9-2 as a division dog under Davis. Think they can take this one to the wire. Take the points.
NY Giants at Arizona- The Giants just can't play as a favorite, they may not have to here as this line floating closer to a pick'em as we speak. Improving Arizona squad improving on offense with addition of RB Hambrick and return of WR Bolden. Giants allowing 4.5 ypc, and that was WITH starting DE's Washington and Strahan, both lost for the season. We have numerous technical angles backing our opinion here. The best of the bunch may be that teams off a home favorite loss to drop to 5-3 are 0-11$ since 1993. Cards 8-3 to the number last 11 on this field, and could be a play-on team for the second half of the season. We'll start today.
Over Tampa Bay/Atlanta- We're leaning to the Bucs here as Gruden one of the best in the business as a dog, and Bucs have the 71 yard better defense. They have also covered 6 out of 7 between these two. We have a decision to make there. The decision already made on the over, as Bucs banged up across the defensive front, and Atlanta averaging 4.9ypr. 10 of the last 12 between these two teams have gone over, the last 3 have not only gone over the total, but have gone over today's total as well. Falcons have given up 97 in their last 2 games, and Bucs offense improving by the game since Pittman has returned, Clayton has emerged, and they are more healthy at receiver. Looking for a high scoring affair in the Georgia Dome.
Baltimore at NY Jets- The Ravens have two offenses, the 11 guys they put on the field WITH the ball, and the 11 guys they put on the field when the OTHER TEAM has the ball. The first one sucks, the second one....isn't that bad. You go ahead and bet Quincy Carter against this defense. Baltimore 39-19$ in the month of November.
Detroit at Jacksonville- Lean to the Ville, they supposedly are very high on David Garrard. Try to stay away from home favorites off of a bye week, though.
Seattle at St.Louis- Seattle beat this team all over the field last time around, that is before Mike Holmgrem coached the last 5 minutes of the game like he was playing X-Box. We'll pass this time around, no not you Mike...you RUN, this time around. RUN THE BALL. As for the other Mike? 2-9 $ off of a SU fav loss
KC at NO- Lean to the home dog against porous Chiefs D. No Priest and the line is still this high?
Cincy at Washington- Washington got a lucky last week, but would only lay the points here as Cincy hasn't covered on the road all year, giving up 30 pgg. Possible under, if Cincy starts playing D on the road like they do at home (12 ppg)
Minny at GBay- Green Bay healthier than they have been all year, and Favre and company 12-4 $ last 16 vs..600> foes. Gotta give the Pack a look.
Carolina at San Francisco- Pass, my God pass
Buffalo at New England- We've seen Willis run, now lets see how he picks up blitzes. Buff defense leading charge, but look at the offenses they have played lately. Miami, Baltimore, Arizona and the Jets without Pennington for half the game. Not fading Pats who have covered 6 of the last 7 between these two. Possible over.
