Virginia Tech at Miami 3* REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
Play on Miami minus the points
Respect what the Hokies have accomplished this year, and no kind of statistical analysis will lead you to Miami in this game. Technically speaking, though it looks like a great spot to us. The combination of rest and revenge is deadly at this time of the year, and indeed you will not find a team playing with more meaningful revenge. These Hokies ended Miami's 39 game regular season winning streak last year in decisive fashion, blowing the Hurricanes right out of Blacksburg 31-7. The game was marred by fights highlighted by a helmeted Deangelo Hall (now with the Atlanta Falcons) taking a swing at a helmetless Antrel Rolle. Hurricane players and coaches also accused the Hokies of multiple cheapshots, a couple which lead to injury. Interesting to note that despite the score, Miami won yardage 377-219. There is definitely no love lost here, and we'll take the revenge-minded, superiorly talented host to step up and win their conference championship on their home field today.
UM is as healthy as they've been since September, as they welcome back DT Thomas, OG Mcmeans, LB Mcintosh (all starters), and others who have been in and out of the lineup the last 5 or 6 games. Miami fits many of the Last Home Angles that Virginia Tech did last week in their impressive home revenge win against Virginia. Two of these angles tell us to play on: HD's or HF<10 w/revenge off SU win 10> (68%), .500> single revenging HF off conf. win of >21 (67%). Even without the angles, whenever we get a team with top 5 talent with this motivation at this price, they are worth a look. UM QB Berlin and RB Gore have really stepped it up a notch down the stretch, and this team showed as much heart as any team in the nation when they were down to true freshmen at multiple positions at Virginia, yet came out of Charlottesville with the win. Miami has won their last 5 revenge games against winning teams SU and ATS, covering each spread by at least 10 points. Hurricanes get it done in season finale.
Southern Cal at UCLA
Play Over the Total and UCLA plus the points 2* Each
Agree with initial line move here from 56 upwards to the 59 range and would still play it at this price. Last two in this rivalry gave us 69 and 73 points, and can't see anything but those kind of numbers this year, thanks to two high powered offenses and UCLA's porous defenses. UCLA has a lot of weapons, and they run for an impressive 208 ypg on 5.2ypr. We all saw Notre Dame run through the Trojans D last week, and note that both Va. Tech and California ran for over 4.0ypr against this D as well. The Bruins can throw it as well, averaging 7.5 yppass, and their senior-laden offensive line has allowed only 13 sacks all year, which is key vs. USC's outstanding defensive front. This offensive balance has led to 34 against Oregon, 28 against Cal, and 42 against Arizona St., 3 of the Pac 10's top 5 defenses. Today they are facing the Pac 10's best, but we think RB's White and Drew will have room to run, and that this team will move the ball. The problem for the Bruins is that they don't stop too many teams, as their 431ypg defense will attest too. Trojan RB's Bush and White should run for days against UCLA run D allowing 5.2 ypr. Norm Chow's offense is as good as it has been since his arrival, and as us Notre Dame bettors can lament...USC plays 4 quarters of football. As long as UCLA still has players on the field, USC will be attempting to score, not leaving anything to chance with the BCS, as well as pumping up Heisman hopefuls Leinhart and Bush. UCLA has the firepower to answer the Trojans a few times, and that will simply assure Chow and company do not take their foot of the gas. Speaking of that Notre Dame game, this total is only a touchdown higher than that rain-soaked game despite UCLA having a far better offense and an inferior defense to the Irish. Check status of Bruin TE Lewis and aforementioned RB Drew (supposedly a go), but either way we look for a shootout in LA.
We think UCLA can hang here, as they have had two weeks to prepare for this Trojan team, and its not too often that a team with this kind of fire power is getting this many points. As we said above, USC has looked susceptible to the run in bigger games, and this is a very good UCLA offensive line. The Bruins have upset Oregon at Oregon, lost to Arizona St. by 6 at Arizona St., and lost by 17 at Cal in a game where they never trailed by more than 17. They also fit some very good last home game systems we use, including a 19-4, 24 year beauty, in which they also fight 5 100% tighteners. We think they can hang around today. Let's just hope they can defense the fake punt
Play on Miami minus the points
Respect what the Hokies have accomplished this year, and no kind of statistical analysis will lead you to Miami in this game. Technically speaking, though it looks like a great spot to us. The combination of rest and revenge is deadly at this time of the year, and indeed you will not find a team playing with more meaningful revenge. These Hokies ended Miami's 39 game regular season winning streak last year in decisive fashion, blowing the Hurricanes right out of Blacksburg 31-7. The game was marred by fights highlighted by a helmeted Deangelo Hall (now with the Atlanta Falcons) taking a swing at a helmetless Antrel Rolle. Hurricane players and coaches also accused the Hokies of multiple cheapshots, a couple which lead to injury. Interesting to note that despite the score, Miami won yardage 377-219. There is definitely no love lost here, and we'll take the revenge-minded, superiorly talented host to step up and win their conference championship on their home field today.
UM is as healthy as they've been since September, as they welcome back DT Thomas, OG Mcmeans, LB Mcintosh (all starters), and others who have been in and out of the lineup the last 5 or 6 games. Miami fits many of the Last Home Angles that Virginia Tech did last week in their impressive home revenge win against Virginia. Two of these angles tell us to play on: HD's or HF<10 w/revenge off SU win 10> (68%), .500> single revenging HF off conf. win of >21 (67%). Even without the angles, whenever we get a team with top 5 talent with this motivation at this price, they are worth a look. UM QB Berlin and RB Gore have really stepped it up a notch down the stretch, and this team showed as much heart as any team in the nation when they were down to true freshmen at multiple positions at Virginia, yet came out of Charlottesville with the win. Miami has won their last 5 revenge games against winning teams SU and ATS, covering each spread by at least 10 points. Hurricanes get it done in season finale.
Southern Cal at UCLA
Play Over the Total and UCLA plus the points 2* Each
Agree with initial line move here from 56 upwards to the 59 range and would still play it at this price. Last two in this rivalry gave us 69 and 73 points, and can't see anything but those kind of numbers this year, thanks to two high powered offenses and UCLA's porous defenses. UCLA has a lot of weapons, and they run for an impressive 208 ypg on 5.2ypr. We all saw Notre Dame run through the Trojans D last week, and note that both Va. Tech and California ran for over 4.0ypr against this D as well. The Bruins can throw it as well, averaging 7.5 yppass, and their senior-laden offensive line has allowed only 13 sacks all year, which is key vs. USC's outstanding defensive front. This offensive balance has led to 34 against Oregon, 28 against Cal, and 42 against Arizona St., 3 of the Pac 10's top 5 defenses. Today they are facing the Pac 10's best, but we think RB's White and Drew will have room to run, and that this team will move the ball. The problem for the Bruins is that they don't stop too many teams, as their 431ypg defense will attest too. Trojan RB's Bush and White should run for days against UCLA run D allowing 5.2 ypr. Norm Chow's offense is as good as it has been since his arrival, and as us Notre Dame bettors can lament...USC plays 4 quarters of football. As long as UCLA still has players on the field, USC will be attempting to score, not leaving anything to chance with the BCS, as well as pumping up Heisman hopefuls Leinhart and Bush. UCLA has the firepower to answer the Trojans a few times, and that will simply assure Chow and company do not take their foot of the gas. Speaking of that Notre Dame game, this total is only a touchdown higher than that rain-soaked game despite UCLA having a far better offense and an inferior defense to the Irish. Check status of Bruin TE Lewis and aforementioned RB Drew (supposedly a go), but either way we look for a shootout in LA.
We think UCLA can hang here, as they have had two weeks to prepare for this Trojan team, and its not too often that a team with this kind of fire power is getting this many points. As we said above, USC has looked susceptible to the run in bigger games, and this is a very good UCLA offensive line. The Bruins have upset Oregon at Oregon, lost to Arizona St. by 6 at Arizona St., and lost by 17 at Cal in a game where they never trailed by more than 17. They also fit some very good last home game systems we use, including a 19-4, 24 year beauty, in which they also fight 5 100% tighteners. We think they can hang around today. Let's just hope they can defense the fake punt
