Last week: 7-3 overall, +3 units; Specials: 2-1, +1 unit.
Season: 15-7-1 overall; +5 units; Specials: 5-1, +5 units.
There's nothing like having the home team in a big game. This week LSU and Florida fit the bill. We also have an affinity for home teams in mismatch situations like FSU, South Carolina, Purdue, Oklahoma and Washington. Florida State is the week's best opportunity.
Friday
Hawaii (+1) over UNLV: John Robinson's UNLV team is still celebrating its win last Saturday at Wisconsin. The Rainbows got shellacked at USC but displayed the passing game needed to take apart UNLV this week. Timmy Chang finds this defense a lot easier.
The play: Hawaii, one unit.
Saturday
LSU (pick 'em) over Georgia: Much has been made of Georgia coach Mark Richt's "Road Warriors" who have won all nine games as visitors under Richt, now in his third year. And yes, Georgia has had the stronger tune-up games, cleaning up against Clemson and South Carolina. While LSU hasn't played a quality opponent yet, Nick Saban, one of the best coaches in the country, will have them ready. LSU has a superior balanced offensive attack while the Bulldogs lose key WR Fred Gibson (hamstring) from theirs.
The play: LSU, one unit.
Florida State (-19) over Colorado: To begin with, Colorado is looking for a hole to crawl in. The Buffs are spent after playing exhausting games against Colorado State, UCLA and Washington State three weeks in a row. Their running game is non-existent, and worse, they lose Bobby Purify, maybe their best RB, to injury this week. They're also without their leader, quarterback Joel Klatt, due to a shoulder injury. Erik Greenberg makes his debut this week at QB, and the Seminoles intend to make it a painful memory. FSU found itself in the comeback against Georgia Tech last week and is now looking for fresh meat. Buffalo meat will do.
The play: Florida State, three units at 20? or less; one unit at 21 or more.
Florida (-3?) over Tennessee: This game opened at two and has moved up steadily. It looks at first glance like a defensive struggle, but the Gators have too many weapons, led by a good passing game against the Vols' shaky pass defense. Don't see Casey Clausen coming from behind against this D, especially on the road.
The play: Florida, two units at 3; one unit at 3? or 4.
Boston College (+12?) over Miami: On paper Miami has too much speed for BC, but it always looks that way. This will be Miami's last visit before leaving the Big East and BC behind. There's enough bitterness in the air that BC coach Tom O'Brien has had to ask his fans to be nice. The last four times the 'Canes have come to Chestnut Hill, they've won by 3, 1, 3, and 11 points. BC's excellent ground game will give its defense just enough rest, but Miami might take advantage of BC's weak punting game.
The play: BC, one unit.
Oklahoma (-19) over UCLA: Much has been made this week of the Sooners losing MLB Lance Mitchell. As coach Bob Stoops pointed out, they're not replacing him with you or me. Oklahoma is rolling behind QB Jason White, and UCLA is the name brand that will get everyone's attention with another blowout victory. The Bruins have played valiantly on defense but are last in the nation in offense. If you can't score, you can't win: especially in Norman.
The play: Oklahoma, one unit at 21 or less.
Iowa (-7?) over Arizona State: Iowa was very professional in getting Iowa State of its back last week, dominating in all departments. Don't see any letdown at home. Arizona State had a hard time running the ball against Utah State, which threw for 300 yards against the Sun Devils. And their mediocre passing game won't cut it here.
The play: Iowa, one unit.
Purdue (-27) over Arizona: Surprised the sports books are keeping the Wildcats on the board. Last year the team revolted against coach John Mackovic, and this year it looks like they've quit on him already. They lost at home to Oregon by 38 and LSU by 46. Who knows? Maybe they'll try harder on the road, but an improving Purdue team doesn't look like the right place to try. Despite the fact Purdue WR Taylor Stubblefeld is questionable, the Boilermakers should win this easily.
The play: Purdue, one unit.
The specials
Outside of the top 25 there are very attractive situations. For example:
Illinois (-4) over California: Cal is coming off a very tough loss at Utah last week, after leading in the fourth quarter. Next week they've got USC. They've had an exhausting month. Traveling to Illinois to play one of the toughest defenses in the Big 10 is not recommended in their current state of mind. Illini passing game looks ready to break out.
The play: Illinois, two units.
Indiana (+8?) over Kentucky: While Kentucky played valiantly at Alabama last week, their offense is yet to show up this season, while their run defense seems to be made to order for IU's running game. True Kentucky's passing should improve in this one, but the Wildcats might be thinking more about facing Florida next week than Indiana this week. We like the way the Hoosiers hung in at Washington for three quarters and think they just might upset the Wildcats in this spot.
The play: Indiana, one unit. (The money line also looks interesting, for those who like home teams, at nearly 3-1).
South Carolina (-14) over UAB: The Blazers are a horrible road team and didn't look so hot at home last week either, losing to Troy State. Even though South Carolina is in a sandwich, between Georgia and Tennessee, Lou Holtz won't let them let down after the whipping they took last week. Had last week's game been close, we'd lay off here. The Gamecocks' running game should eat UAB up.
The play: South Carolina, two units at 14 or less, one unit over 14.
Washington (-26?) over Idaho: This is another mismatch where the line appears too low. Idaho has improved its D, holding Washington State to 10 points at the half and Boise State to 24 total last week. But they can't score at all, and Washington certainly can -- in bunches. This should be over by halftime.
The play: Washington, two units at 28 or less.
Army (+17) over Tulane: For some reason, Army gives Tulane fits. Army has won this game two of the last three years, with its only loss coming by a touchdown. The Cadets made the Green Wave their only win last year with a 14-10 victory at Tulane. For Tulane it was embarrassing enough they considered changing the school name to One Lane. While Army has been dreadful, it showed signs of life with a late rally against Rutgers last week. And Tulane may be looking ahead to facing Texas next week.
The play: Army, one unit.
Passing thoughts
Why is Texas Tech coach Mike Leach so mad that he has threatened to fire any coach or cut any player who leaks injury info to the media? Could be because defensive end Adell Duckett is out, and against Phil Rivers at N.C. State that's not a good thing for a pass defense already ranked a dismal 98th. ... Mississippi State doesn't seem good enough to be favored on the road against anybody. ... Isn't it about time for the vaunted Oregon State offense to show up, especially at home against a Boise State team that's just a shadow of last year's 11-1 squad?
Season: 15-7-1 overall; +5 units; Specials: 5-1, +5 units.
There's nothing like having the home team in a big game. This week LSU and Florida fit the bill. We also have an affinity for home teams in mismatch situations like FSU, South Carolina, Purdue, Oklahoma and Washington. Florida State is the week's best opportunity.
Friday
Hawaii (+1) over UNLV: John Robinson's UNLV team is still celebrating its win last Saturday at Wisconsin. The Rainbows got shellacked at USC but displayed the passing game needed to take apart UNLV this week. Timmy Chang finds this defense a lot easier.
The play: Hawaii, one unit.
Saturday
LSU (pick 'em) over Georgia: Much has been made of Georgia coach Mark Richt's "Road Warriors" who have won all nine games as visitors under Richt, now in his third year. And yes, Georgia has had the stronger tune-up games, cleaning up against Clemson and South Carolina. While LSU hasn't played a quality opponent yet, Nick Saban, one of the best coaches in the country, will have them ready. LSU has a superior balanced offensive attack while the Bulldogs lose key WR Fred Gibson (hamstring) from theirs.
The play: LSU, one unit.
Florida State (-19) over Colorado: To begin with, Colorado is looking for a hole to crawl in. The Buffs are spent after playing exhausting games against Colorado State, UCLA and Washington State three weeks in a row. Their running game is non-existent, and worse, they lose Bobby Purify, maybe their best RB, to injury this week. They're also without their leader, quarterback Joel Klatt, due to a shoulder injury. Erik Greenberg makes his debut this week at QB, and the Seminoles intend to make it a painful memory. FSU found itself in the comeback against Georgia Tech last week and is now looking for fresh meat. Buffalo meat will do.
The play: Florida State, three units at 20? or less; one unit at 21 or more.
Florida (-3?) over Tennessee: This game opened at two and has moved up steadily. It looks at first glance like a defensive struggle, but the Gators have too many weapons, led by a good passing game against the Vols' shaky pass defense. Don't see Casey Clausen coming from behind against this D, especially on the road.
The play: Florida, two units at 3; one unit at 3? or 4.
Boston College (+12?) over Miami: On paper Miami has too much speed for BC, but it always looks that way. This will be Miami's last visit before leaving the Big East and BC behind. There's enough bitterness in the air that BC coach Tom O'Brien has had to ask his fans to be nice. The last four times the 'Canes have come to Chestnut Hill, they've won by 3, 1, 3, and 11 points. BC's excellent ground game will give its defense just enough rest, but Miami might take advantage of BC's weak punting game.
The play: BC, one unit.
Oklahoma (-19) over UCLA: Much has been made this week of the Sooners losing MLB Lance Mitchell. As coach Bob Stoops pointed out, they're not replacing him with you or me. Oklahoma is rolling behind QB Jason White, and UCLA is the name brand that will get everyone's attention with another blowout victory. The Bruins have played valiantly on defense but are last in the nation in offense. If you can't score, you can't win: especially in Norman.
The play: Oklahoma, one unit at 21 or less.
Iowa (-7?) over Arizona State: Iowa was very professional in getting Iowa State of its back last week, dominating in all departments. Don't see any letdown at home. Arizona State had a hard time running the ball against Utah State, which threw for 300 yards against the Sun Devils. And their mediocre passing game won't cut it here.
The play: Iowa, one unit.
Purdue (-27) over Arizona: Surprised the sports books are keeping the Wildcats on the board. Last year the team revolted against coach John Mackovic, and this year it looks like they've quit on him already. They lost at home to Oregon by 38 and LSU by 46. Who knows? Maybe they'll try harder on the road, but an improving Purdue team doesn't look like the right place to try. Despite the fact Purdue WR Taylor Stubblefeld is questionable, the Boilermakers should win this easily.
The play: Purdue, one unit.
The specials
Outside of the top 25 there are very attractive situations. For example:
Illinois (-4) over California: Cal is coming off a very tough loss at Utah last week, after leading in the fourth quarter. Next week they've got USC. They've had an exhausting month. Traveling to Illinois to play one of the toughest defenses in the Big 10 is not recommended in their current state of mind. Illini passing game looks ready to break out.
The play: Illinois, two units.
Indiana (+8?) over Kentucky: While Kentucky played valiantly at Alabama last week, their offense is yet to show up this season, while their run defense seems to be made to order for IU's running game. True Kentucky's passing should improve in this one, but the Wildcats might be thinking more about facing Florida next week than Indiana this week. We like the way the Hoosiers hung in at Washington for three quarters and think they just might upset the Wildcats in this spot.
The play: Indiana, one unit. (The money line also looks interesting, for those who like home teams, at nearly 3-1).
South Carolina (-14) over UAB: The Blazers are a horrible road team and didn't look so hot at home last week either, losing to Troy State. Even though South Carolina is in a sandwich, between Georgia and Tennessee, Lou Holtz won't let them let down after the whipping they took last week. Had last week's game been close, we'd lay off here. The Gamecocks' running game should eat UAB up.
The play: South Carolina, two units at 14 or less, one unit over 14.
Washington (-26?) over Idaho: This is another mismatch where the line appears too low. Idaho has improved its D, holding Washington State to 10 points at the half and Boise State to 24 total last week. But they can't score at all, and Washington certainly can -- in bunches. This should be over by halftime.
The play: Washington, two units at 28 or less.
Army (+17) over Tulane: For some reason, Army gives Tulane fits. Army has won this game two of the last three years, with its only loss coming by a touchdown. The Cadets made the Green Wave their only win last year with a 14-10 victory at Tulane. For Tulane it was embarrassing enough they considered changing the school name to One Lane. While Army has been dreadful, it showed signs of life with a late rally against Rutgers last week. And Tulane may be looking ahead to facing Texas next week.
The play: Army, one unit.
Passing thoughts
Why is Texas Tech coach Mike Leach so mad that he has threatened to fire any coach or cut any player who leaks injury info to the media? Could be because defensive end Adell Duckett is out, and against Phil Rivers at N.C. State that's not a good thing for a pass defense already ranked a dismal 98th. ... Mississippi State doesn't seem good enough to be favored on the road against anybody. ... Isn't it about time for the vaunted Oregon State offense to show up, especially at home against a Boise State team that's just a shadow of last year's 11-1 squad?
