evansville @ austin peay

[loophole]

one unit plays bombed yesterday so i'll go back to posting one top play a day.



austin peay +5-: including the aces' win at tennessee-martin this year, evansville is now 6-37 s/u on the road over the last four seasons. that appears to be a trend worth fading whenever evansville is lined a road favorite.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Evansville should be a 2 1/2 to a 3 point Favorite yet line at 9AM is - 5 1/2 . Maybe Vegas is giving out free money for Hanucka and Xmass :shrug: :nono: Just makes you go HMMM

 

[rrc]

Or maybe Evansville is 6-37 on the road over the last four seasons as Loop stated. :shrug:

 

[loophole]

thanks for the input guys.

i've been intrigued for years with the theory that books put certain teams "on sale" by overpricing one side to make the other side more atractive. the theory seems more palpable these days with the lines being set by the offshore books that are generally more aggressive than vegas in terms of setting lines to take a position. however, i've never had any success in devising a betting strategy based on such a theory that would hold up over the long term. hopefully bb has invented a better mousetrap that will pass the test of multiple trials. in any event, not convinced that such is the case with the evansville line today. i use the dolphin ratings to compare actual lines to those based upon power numbers, and they predict a line around evansville -6-.


glta

 

[rrc]

Good luck today loop.

 

[Flipper13]

What are "dolphin ratings"? Thanks.

 

[loophole]

forgot to mention above that evansville is headed to indianapolis on friday to take on butler.

flipper,

look to the menu to the left of the forum and click on the handicapper's guide that ie has put together. then click on ncaabb, and you'll find the dolphin ratings, as well as most of what you need for hoops handicapping.

 

[loophole]

i'm going to go ahead and add another top play for today -

tennessee-chattanooga +3-: there's a couple of good articles from the chattanooga paper posted in ie's thread on this game. davidson has always had trouble playing on the moc's homecourt, losing fifteen of their last seventeen there. this is one of the biggest soco rivalries, going back to the days when these two teams dominated.

 

[bej0101]

thanks loop

 

[buddy]

I think Billy is on the right side.

But once again, his followers might be getting a wee bit nervous toward the very end.

 

[noodnick]

dolphin ratings

dolphin ratings

how did you calculate evansville was 6 pts better than a. peay based on dolphin ratings?

 

[chop33]

I think Loop is on the right side and i don't think we will be nervous at the end.:mj07:

 

[noodnick]

thanks for the input guys.

i've been intrigued for years with the theory that books put certain teams "on sale" by overpricing one side to make the other side more atractive. the theory seems more palpable these days with the lines being set by the offshore books that are generally more aggressive than vegas in terms of setting lines to take a position. however, i've never had any success in devising a betting strategy based on such a theory that would hold up over the long term. hopefully bb has invented a better mousetrap that will pass the test of multiple trials. in any event, not convinced that such is the case with the evansville line today. i use the dolphin ratings to compare actual lines to those based upon power numbers, and they predict a line around evansville -6-.


glta

should have referred to above quote. still, how did you calculate 6 pt spread?

 

[loophole]

if you scroll down to the bottom of the dolphin ratings page there is a calculator feature that allows you to plug in the teams to obtain the predicted score:


PREDICTIONS FOR GAME: EVANSVILLE AT AUSTIN PEAY

FROM PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS:
EVANSVILLE WIN ODDS = 70.7%
EVANSVILLE SCORE = 66.96 +/- 12.43
AUSTIN PEAY SCORE = 60.79 +/- 11.84
TOTAL SCORE = 127.75 +/- 17.17
EVANSVILLE - AUSTIN PEAY = 6.17 +/- 11.36

FROM 10000 SIMILAR GAMES (OF 89650): EVANSVILLE WIN ODDS = 71.1%

 

[noodnick]

if you scroll down to the bottom of the dolphin ratings page there is a calculator feature that allows you to plug in the teams to obtain the predicted score:


PREDICTIONS FOR GAME: EVANSVILLE AT AUSTIN PEAY

FROM PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS:
EVANSVILLE WIN ODDS = 70.7%
EVANSVILLE SCORE = 66.96 +/- 12.43
AUSTIN PEAY SCORE = 60.79 +/- 11.84
TOTAL SCORE = 127.75 +/- 17.17
EVANSVILLE - AUSTIN PEAY = 6.17 +/- 11.36

FROM 10000 SIMILAR GAMES (OF 89650): EVANSVILLE WIN ODDS = 71.1%

thanks for the info, loophole. have these predictions been pretty close in the past??

 

[loophole]

not really, not any more that any statistically based system. just gives you an idea about some of what went into making the line.