Everyone should look at this and contribute

[west coast guru]

I know everybody has their own system in college hoops. Some use power ratings or other have different types of formulas. But, after analyzing my formula for the past 5 years it comes up with some interesting findings. This year has been very similar the past five years. For this year so far here is the games my formulas have came up with and the breakdowns.
Home Favorites +36 units -37.4 units -1.4 units
for a record of 36-34

Home Dogs +3units -5 units -2.5 units
for a record of 3-5

Road Favorites +55 units -30.8 units +24.2 units
for a record of 55-38

Road Dogs +9 units -28.6 units - 19.6 units
for a record of 9-26

overall 103-93 +.7units
So , basically my formula shows me to play with my road favorites and against my road dogs which would actually give me home favorites. So my formula says to basically bet favorites. It has been that way for five years. So this year by establishing this trend with my formula I am
81-47 for +29.3 units. If I get time I will pull up my numbers for the past five years. I was just curious because I know some people are successful with what they have by betting dogs. I am successful by betting favorites. If you notice Raymond and Fletcher almost always bet favorites. So, are dogs a bad bet? I know people are sucessful betting from dogs so I would like to hear from you

 

[NJO]

my $0.02 worth

my $0.02 worth

I think you have done a good job pinpointing your strengths and weaknesses.

Dogs and faves can both be winners, it just seems your approach is one that seems to recognize when a stronger team is due for a big effort, while others' analyses find numbers, performance patterns, scheduling siutations, etc. that point them to Dogs due for a big effort.

Generally speaking, the dogs I win with are home dogs and small away dogs. Large dogs, I have learned, to stay away from, because more often than not, that 15 point dog which seemed to have value, on my bets, gets rolled by 30.

 

[ferdville]

Though I don't hve the stats to back it up, I have always felt that road favorites in NCAA are the plays to look at first. I think linesmakers give too much credit to home court simply because there are a handful of teams that are practically unbeatable at home. If you throw out those teams that just don't lose at home, the opportunities are many. Would love to see some long term stats on this, especially if you threw out any teams that win 90% or more at home.