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Snafu

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Thanks guys :toast:


Spanish GP

fastest in 2nd practice
Bottas +333 2u

he was 2nd in 1st by 0.029 seconds

gl
 

Snafu

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Bottas 2nd in 2nd practice by 0.090secs and second in 1st practice by 0.029secs

3rd p
Bottas +275 2u
definitely worth a try, not much room for an error for Hamilton


Ferrari's were so much behind that i see Merc 1-2 in qual

Pole
Bottas +175 2u

qual H2H
R?ikk?nen +225 2u - Vettel


that's it gl
 

Snafu

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noup... :facepalm:

Hamilton was actually a bit lucky to take pole, some info said that after 2/3 of the track he was 4th
but had best last 1/3 of top four and took pole. Bottas and Vettel missed last corner to take the pole.
Anyways, i'm gonna count on Ferraris race speed with their new improved parts.

to win
Vettel +200 4u

Leader after
1st lap Vettel +250 2u
1st lap Bottas +600 1u

5th lap Vettel +225 2u
5th lap Bottas +500 1u

10th lap Vettel +187 2u
10th lap Bottas +450 1u


pretty much same as previous race where Bottas took lead after long straight. track profile
is same here, long straight, right turn that changes to left turn. if you can be on the left side of the 1st
car on that right hander, you go ahead in left hander... and Hamilton haven't been solid with his starts.
start is Hamilton vs Vettel and Bottas might sneak past them...

usually don't pay juice in F1 but this should be that famous L-word:
RH2H
Bottas -167 3u - R?ikk?nen
Verstappen +203 2u - R?ikk?nen

to be classified
Alonso NO -120 2u

safety car period during the race NO +110 3u (virtual SF doesn't count)


good luck :toast:
 

Snafu

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decent race, shame that Vettel couldn't hold on to that lead

race 6-5 +14.20u

weekend 6-9 +6.20u

those 0.0something losses will even up during the season... :lol:

next Monaco GP 25th
 

DZ

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Monaco this weekend...Can't wait! As always, qualifying is critical here.
 

DZ

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Interesting article to consider for upcoming race:

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/...haracteristic-that-might-hurt-mercedes-i.html

Once excerpt:
The shorter cars have slightly more maneuvrability in low speed and so in places like Singapore, Hungary and, of course, Monaco, you?d want a shorter one.?

Lewis Hamilton neatly summed-up the situation after the Chinese Grand Prix, saying: ?Our car is longer, so when we get to Monaco I don?t know how I?m going to get my car around some of those very, very tight corners.

Small disadvantage for Merc having the largest wheelbase in the field by far, but interesting nonetheless.

1495191780723.jpg
 

Snafu

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Good info DZ :0008 , i was going to bring this up. Longer wheelbase doesn't just make cars turning radius larger but at uneven track suspension travel grows, diameter of wheels suspension (front left/back right) increases by pythagoras theorem and when suspension travel grows, you need heavier suspension parts.

BUT it's not all that, longer car has better aerodynamics in fast corners that Monaco has plenty, well semi fast corners at least, like Casino area and last third. Time you lose in two hairpins comes back there.
Also short wheelbase causes less forgiving and harder to set up aerodynamics. During the race conditions of the track and tyres change all the time so the window where short wheelbase "perfect" setup works is narrower = tyre wear.

In race this sums up as an advantage for long wheelbase cars: passing in corners is impossible in Monaco (it happens but not because of aerodynamic differences), better braking (after tunnel) but again in the other hand short wheelbase cars get better exit speed from corner before straights (first corner, before tunnel, and last corner before main straight).

Shortly, short wheelbase might give benefit in free track practice and qualification, but in race long wheelbase has advantage (imo) . Mercedes has won last four here.

1st practice
Bottas +900 1u


GL :00hour
 

Snafu

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Merc had problems in 2nd practice, good change they bounce back for qual practice

fastest in 3rd practice
Hamilton +200 1u
Bottas +1400 1u


gl
 

Snafu

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let's take a little risk here, odds are too good to pass

qual:
winning car
Mercedes +175 4u

Hamilton +200 2u
Bottas +1400 2u


gl
 

DZ

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Good info DZ :0008 , i was going to bring this up. Longer wheelbase doesn't just make cars turning radius larger but at uneven track suspension travel grows, diameter of wheels suspension (front left/back right) increases by pythagoras theorem and when suspension travel grows, you need heavier suspension parts.

BUT it's not all that, longer car has better aerodynamics in fast corners that Monaco has plenty, well semi fast corners at least, like Casino area and last third. Time you lose in two hairpins comes back there.
Also short wheelbase causes less forgiving and harder to set up aerodynamics. During the race conditions of the track and tyres change all the time so the window where short wheelbase "perfect" setup works is narrower = tyre wear.

In race this sums up as an advantage for long wheelbase cars: passing in corners is impossible in Monaco (it happens but not because of aerodynamic differences), better braking (after tunnel) but again in the other hand short wheelbase cars get better exit speed from corner before straights (first corner, before tunnel, and last corner before main straight).

Shortly, short wheelbase might give benefit in free track practice and qualification, but in race long wheelbase has advantage (imo) . Mercedes has won last four here.

1st practice
Bottas +900 1u


GL :00hour


Fantastic analysis, Saf. One question for me, though, is both Hamilton and Bottas have complained about getting tires heated up as fast compared to Ferrari. They haven't been able to complete as many practice laps due to trying to fix this and I wonder if it is because they cannot get as much acceleration around the tight turns DUE TO the longer wheelbase. That said, in terms of wheelbase and incorporating the advantages of that, so astutely laid out in your post, I feel that Ferrari and Red Bull (specifically Ricciardo who is exceptional on this track) are primed for a good performance having a balanced wheelbase for this track on the wide turns and tight turns.
 

Snafu

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I didn't listen 3rd practice, but looked like Merc has problems turning into tight corners: car understeers heavily. And yes, i agree, that might be because of longer wheelbase and its negative effect. What bugs me is time difference between Bottas and Hamilton, usually they are even but now Hamilton is 4 tenths behind.
He was quickest in 1st but haven't improved his time since.
If cars setup is "conservative" = doesn't push tyres hard that heating up might be problem as you said DZ.

Either Merc has problems or they have been setting cars for the race ( maybe as long 1st stint as possible and wait best opportunity make pit stop?) and they know their qual setup already.

Hardest race to quess, i'm sitting on Merc bets and taking one more:

QH2H
Button -120 3u - Vandoorne

edit, one more:
Bottas +200 2u - Hamilton

GL :toast:
 

Snafu

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well, Monaco -3u so far, ( +38u Bottas being 0.046 seconds quicker in qual... :banghead: )

race:

i doubt very much Kimi listens any rumored team orders. If he keeps 1st place and
Seb 2nd they probably let first car go and 2nd car keeps the pack behind. Pit stop takes
25 secs with entry/exit. Bottas starts bagged in inside track by two Ferraris and just might
squeeze ahead Vettel. Good chance we see crash right away in 1st corner (Verstappen 4th,
he might try something stupid).

To win
R?ikk?nen +137 3u
Bottas +1200 2u
Verstappen +2000 1u
Ricciardo +2800 1u


both cars to be classified
Ferrari NO +225 3u
Mercedes NO +250 3u


fastest lap
Hamilton +550 2u

winning margin
O10 seconds +333 2u

points finish
Button YES +162 2u

race H2H
Button +125 3u - Vandoorne

winning nationality
Finnish +120 3u :0074



good luck :burnout
 

DZ

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Played

Played

Bottas to Win 10-1 0.5x
Ricciardo to Win 20-1 0.5x
Bottas top 3 -160 2.5x
Ricciardo top 3 +225 2x


GL
 

DZ

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Well, great race by Ferrari. This one will really upset things in the constructors standings. I took a shot on one of Bottas or Ricciardo winning but the fact that one got into the top three pretty much evened things out for me (down 1/2 unit).

Snaf, you hear Button tell Alonso over the radio at the start of the race that he'd take care of his car for him by peeing in it? :mj07::mj07:
 

Snafu

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i did, really cool from Alonso and McLaren to do that.
Not sure if button actually did it after the accident :mj07:

what an disastrous race... Button smashing Wehrlein to the wall
and late SC was really an icing to the shitcake.

-28u, didn't win a single race bet :facepalm:

0.046 seconds made the difference.... :0003


well, next race Canada in a few weeks :toast:
 

Snafu

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Canadian Grand Prix

third practice
Vettel +200 1u

pole
Vettel +200 2u

qual H2H
Bottas +225 2u - Hamilton

gl
 
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