Fading the Public Plays

J

justin22g

WAR EAGLE!
Forum Member
Sep 8, 2005
1,809
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Birmingham, AL
I started this last night with the Redskins and Eagles... It went 0-2 for -3.3 units


My plan is to only fade the public in plays that are 75% or higher.

I might increase the bet if the public is 85% or higher.

So if its 75-85% on one side, it will be a 1 unit play, if its 85% or higher, it will be a 2 unit play.

I don't know if anyone else has been doing this, but my plan is to keep up with it each week and keep a win/lose percentage.

In the past, I have made some money fading the public. Its hard to tell if it has been profitable or not because 1) I didn't track it and 2) my betting variance is drastic


I will use this thread to keep up with the win percentage and total units won (including juice)

I started this last night and went 0-2 in NFL.... so tread lightly.

Right now the play is looking like Memphis +4 (96% of bettors on ECU).

This is probably going to change, so I will wait till I post.

NFL
1 unit plays
0-1 -1.1 units

2 unit plays
0-1 -2.2 units

overall
0-2 -3.3 units

college foots
0-0

`
 
P

pocketrockets69

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 29, 2006
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Very interested in this. I did some regression work and found some success (in a very small sample) for >90% on a side. Between 80-90% however is devastating with a win % of something like 34% - keep in mind this is a VERY small sampe. More to come if I have time.
 
J

justin22g

WAR EAGLE!
Forum Member
Sep 8, 2005
1,809
1
0
Birmingham, AL
pocketrockets69 said:
Very interested in this. I did some regression work and found some success (in a very small sample) for >90% on a side. Between 80-90% however is devastating with a win % of something like 34% - keep in mind this is a VERY small sampe. More to come if I have time.
Click to expand...

Yeah, give me some details. I wish I would have started this during the first of the season, but we will have to see how it fares for the last part.

It is not 95% to 5% on tonight's game. The line should be up to 6 at kick.
 
J

justin22g

WAR EAGLE!
Forum Member
Sep 8, 2005
1,809
1
0
Birmingham, AL
Not starting out too well....

College -
1 unit = 0-0
2 unit = 0-1 -2.2
TOTAL = 0-1 -2.2

NFL -
1 unit = 0-1 -1.1
2 unit = 0-1 -2.2
TOTAL = 0-2 -3.2

College/NFL
1 unit = 0-1 -1.1
2 unit = 0-2 -4.4
total = 0-3 -5.5


Memphis had a chance to cover but they turned the ball over way too much... oh well, we'll get em this weekend
 
E

el JB

Registered User
Forum Member
Apr 6, 2006
3,605
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Mexico/Texas
first half season in the NFL has been public plays

first half season in the NFL has been public plays

not good up to now in public dominated plays specially this last week in NFL
this may change in the rest of the season but no certainty as many will see this as an angle to bet on
 
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