Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Preview:
This divisional rivalry consists of two teams coming off embarrassing losses, and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Bears were able to make the Falcons look like a scared team that was unwilling to get into a dogfight. The Falcons finesse offense seemed exploited by a tenacious defense that was able to swarm to whoever had the ball. The Falcons defense played tough throughout, but was unable to find an answer for the Bears passing game once Grossman took over. The Falcons continue to play inferior ball on the road, lead by an inefficient running game when played on grass. Vick continues to struggle against fast defenses that are able to bottle him up. Their defense appears to be slowly improving, but still carries a lot of holes that could easily be exploited by certain offenses. Can the Falcons pull out a miracle and beat two division rivals to close out the season and earn a playoff birth, or will closing out the season against the Bears, Bucs and Panthers defense make the Falcons finesse offense damaged goods?
The Buccaneers are also coming off an embarrassing loss to the defending champs. In that game, Simms seemed to take a step back, and looked more like a rookie than a quarterback that could lead the Bucs into the playoffs. Without an adequate passing game, the Bucs running game could never get started. The Bucs defense also seemed lost last week, unable to find an answer for the wide array of passing options Brady included into the game plan. After 3 consecutive road games, the Bucs now travel back home to face a team they beat only a few weeks ago in their home turf. Can the extra days rest and friendly environment be enough to sweep the Falcons and put the last nail into their coffin, or was last week?s laugher a sign of things to come?
Play: Buccaneers -3
Comment:
Pros:
There are 4 defenses that Vick consistently struggles against- the Bears, Panthers, Eagles and Buccaneers. All four defenses have the same makeup. All are defenses that heavily rely on their fast front seven to bottle up Vick, and install consistent pressure from multiple areas. All four defenses do an excellent job mixing up coverage schemes which include zone blitzes, 3 man rushes, 7 man rushes, and spy schemes. Vick has yet to prove he is able to adjust to the multiple looks and defensive speed that offsets his greatest asset- especially on the road. Unfortunately for Vick, he his playing his second game in a row against one of these defenses that has given him nightmares.
No other offense relies more on their running game more than the Falcons. No other running game carries a greater disparity of home and road efficiency than the Falcons. This obviously does not bode well for the Falcons, who desperately need to establish a running game to take the pressure off Vick. It is no coincidence that the Falcons running game is much less efficient on the road. It is a running game that greatly relies on zone blocking schemes, cutbacks, speed and quickness to work. In other words, it is the most finesse running game in football. Finesse running games are much more efficient indoors and on the fast carpets the dome games supply. Therefore, one has to assume that the Falcons running game will automatically not be as efficient as if the game were played at home. The Falcons offensive line has become much more inconsistent with their quality of run blocking in recent weeks, and has been known to struggle against fast front sevens that are able to shoot their zone gaps. The Bucs are one of the best run defenses in football, and provide the speed that can offset the Falcons zone runs and cutbacks. The Bucs also do an excellent job at bottling Vick in the pocket, and forcing him to become more of a pocket passer than a runner. Expect them to use Rice of Brooks as a spy which will prevent Vick from running on broken plays. If the Falcons are unable to establish a quality running game, the pressure will be on Vicks arm to create yardage. However, Vick remains inconsistent at best as a pocket passer, and lacks the receiving threats for the Falcons to be efficient as a pass first offense. The Bucs do a good job at creating pressure, and forcing Vick to make quick decisions that often lead to mental mistakes and turnovers. The Bucs are the best team at installing cover 2?s. The Falcons receivers lack the route running and experience to find seams that the cover 2 allows receivers, which will put Crumpler as the main emphasis in the passing game once again. Crumpler is a prototypical tight end that could beat the cover 2 scheme, however, if the Falcons offensive line continues to struggle with their pass protection, and Vick isn?t given adequate time in the pocket, Crumpler wont be given the time to find the seams. The bottom line is the Vick and the Falcons offense is notoriously less effective on the road and against the faster defenses in the league. As last weeks game would attest, the Falcons should struggle once again going up against these two predicaments.
The Bucs offense took a couple steps back in last weeks performance. With that said, the Patriots defense matches up much better against the Bucs offense than the Falcons. The Bucs offense is another offense that heavily relies on the efficiency of their running game in order to take the pressure off Simms. Therefore, another vital variable in the outcome of this game is deciphering the match up of their run offense against the Falcons run defense. The Falcons run defense has struggled all year defending between the tackle runs, including their game against the Bucs less than a couple of months ago. Williams is one of the better interior tackle runners in the league, and was able to exploit the Falcons run defense last time out with his rare combination of speed and power. Expect the Bucs to utilize all three of their quality runners in order to wear down the Falcons undersized front seven, and take the pressure off Simms and the passing game. The Bucs pass protection is struggling, while the Falcons have the ability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. However, the Falcons pass rush depreciates substantially when their opponent is able to wear their front seven down with the run. Expect the Bucs run game to also keep the Falcons blitzers off balance and un-leveraged. The Falcons also will more than likely be without their best pass rusher Smith for this game as well. These variables leads me to believe Simms will have more time in the pocket, which will allow him to work much more efficiently. The Falcons corners played well off their men last week, and gave the Bears enough cushion to use the quick outs and 3 step drops. The Bucs offense heavily relies on this system, and if the Falcons corners continue to play well off their men, it will fall right into the Bucs strength. Expect the Bucs to use a lot of 3 and 5 step drops and throw short timing passes to their quality possession receivers, which will offset the Falcons blitzes and pressure techniques. The bottom line is to expect another efficient game out of the Bucs offense, in much similar fashion to how they were able to exploit the Falcons weaknesses in their first game against them. Expect their run game to dictate the tempo, while their low risk passing game will be utilized to keep the Falcons defense honest.
Cons:
McCarland health is a huge x- factor. He is listed as questionable, and provides the Bucs the best chance of shutting down the Falcons run game. If he is unable to go, the Falcons interior run game should improve substantially, and also makes the Bucs run defense more prone to be worn down later into the game. Vick saw a much similar defense just a few days ago, and should now be able to adjust better to whatever the Bucs decide to throw at him. Crumpler?s match up is vital for the success of the Falcons passing game, and he matches up rather well against the Bucs personnel and coverage schemes. Simms is also a concern. He seemed lost under pressure last week, and his line is not giving him ample time to throw the ball. Aside from last week, the Falcons are one of the hardest teams to throw first level passes against- a passing scheme the Bucs heavily rely on. His thumb might be bothering him more than he admits, and if he us understating his injury, this bet is in big trouble. The Bucs seem not to play much better at home, therefore, from that standpoint, home field advantage is minimized.
Conclusion:
Divisional rivalries with playoff implications for both teams are my favorite games to handicap. The reason? Both teams are most like to play to form, allowing the fundamental handicapper with a great advantage. Fundamentally breaking down this game, the Bucs have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Add the home field advantage, and laying three points is well worth the risk in my opinion. My money is on the Buccaneers
Preview:
This divisional rivalry consists of two teams coming off embarrassing losses, and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Bears were able to make the Falcons look like a scared team that was unwilling to get into a dogfight. The Falcons finesse offense seemed exploited by a tenacious defense that was able to swarm to whoever had the ball. The Falcons defense played tough throughout, but was unable to find an answer for the Bears passing game once Grossman took over. The Falcons continue to play inferior ball on the road, lead by an inefficient running game when played on grass. Vick continues to struggle against fast defenses that are able to bottle him up. Their defense appears to be slowly improving, but still carries a lot of holes that could easily be exploited by certain offenses. Can the Falcons pull out a miracle and beat two division rivals to close out the season and earn a playoff birth, or will closing out the season against the Bears, Bucs and Panthers defense make the Falcons finesse offense damaged goods?
The Buccaneers are also coming off an embarrassing loss to the defending champs. In that game, Simms seemed to take a step back, and looked more like a rookie than a quarterback that could lead the Bucs into the playoffs. Without an adequate passing game, the Bucs running game could never get started. The Bucs defense also seemed lost last week, unable to find an answer for the wide array of passing options Brady included into the game plan. After 3 consecutive road games, the Bucs now travel back home to face a team they beat only a few weeks ago in their home turf. Can the extra days rest and friendly environment be enough to sweep the Falcons and put the last nail into their coffin, or was last week?s laugher a sign of things to come?
Play: Buccaneers -3
Comment:
Pros:
There are 4 defenses that Vick consistently struggles against- the Bears, Panthers, Eagles and Buccaneers. All four defenses have the same makeup. All are defenses that heavily rely on their fast front seven to bottle up Vick, and install consistent pressure from multiple areas. All four defenses do an excellent job mixing up coverage schemes which include zone blitzes, 3 man rushes, 7 man rushes, and spy schemes. Vick has yet to prove he is able to adjust to the multiple looks and defensive speed that offsets his greatest asset- especially on the road. Unfortunately for Vick, he his playing his second game in a row against one of these defenses that has given him nightmares.
No other offense relies more on their running game more than the Falcons. No other running game carries a greater disparity of home and road efficiency than the Falcons. This obviously does not bode well for the Falcons, who desperately need to establish a running game to take the pressure off Vick. It is no coincidence that the Falcons running game is much less efficient on the road. It is a running game that greatly relies on zone blocking schemes, cutbacks, speed and quickness to work. In other words, it is the most finesse running game in football. Finesse running games are much more efficient indoors and on the fast carpets the dome games supply. Therefore, one has to assume that the Falcons running game will automatically not be as efficient as if the game were played at home. The Falcons offensive line has become much more inconsistent with their quality of run blocking in recent weeks, and has been known to struggle against fast front sevens that are able to shoot their zone gaps. The Bucs are one of the best run defenses in football, and provide the speed that can offset the Falcons zone runs and cutbacks. The Bucs also do an excellent job at bottling Vick in the pocket, and forcing him to become more of a pocket passer than a runner. Expect them to use Rice of Brooks as a spy which will prevent Vick from running on broken plays. If the Falcons are unable to establish a quality running game, the pressure will be on Vicks arm to create yardage. However, Vick remains inconsistent at best as a pocket passer, and lacks the receiving threats for the Falcons to be efficient as a pass first offense. The Bucs do a good job at creating pressure, and forcing Vick to make quick decisions that often lead to mental mistakes and turnovers. The Bucs are the best team at installing cover 2?s. The Falcons receivers lack the route running and experience to find seams that the cover 2 allows receivers, which will put Crumpler as the main emphasis in the passing game once again. Crumpler is a prototypical tight end that could beat the cover 2 scheme, however, if the Falcons offensive line continues to struggle with their pass protection, and Vick isn?t given adequate time in the pocket, Crumpler wont be given the time to find the seams. The bottom line is the Vick and the Falcons offense is notoriously less effective on the road and against the faster defenses in the league. As last weeks game would attest, the Falcons should struggle once again going up against these two predicaments.
The Bucs offense took a couple steps back in last weeks performance. With that said, the Patriots defense matches up much better against the Bucs offense than the Falcons. The Bucs offense is another offense that heavily relies on the efficiency of their running game in order to take the pressure off Simms. Therefore, another vital variable in the outcome of this game is deciphering the match up of their run offense against the Falcons run defense. The Falcons run defense has struggled all year defending between the tackle runs, including their game against the Bucs less than a couple of months ago. Williams is one of the better interior tackle runners in the league, and was able to exploit the Falcons run defense last time out with his rare combination of speed and power. Expect the Bucs to utilize all three of their quality runners in order to wear down the Falcons undersized front seven, and take the pressure off Simms and the passing game. The Bucs pass protection is struggling, while the Falcons have the ability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. However, the Falcons pass rush depreciates substantially when their opponent is able to wear their front seven down with the run. Expect the Bucs run game to also keep the Falcons blitzers off balance and un-leveraged. The Falcons also will more than likely be without their best pass rusher Smith for this game as well. These variables leads me to believe Simms will have more time in the pocket, which will allow him to work much more efficiently. The Falcons corners played well off their men last week, and gave the Bears enough cushion to use the quick outs and 3 step drops. The Bucs offense heavily relies on this system, and if the Falcons corners continue to play well off their men, it will fall right into the Bucs strength. Expect the Bucs to use a lot of 3 and 5 step drops and throw short timing passes to their quality possession receivers, which will offset the Falcons blitzes and pressure techniques. The bottom line is to expect another efficient game out of the Bucs offense, in much similar fashion to how they were able to exploit the Falcons weaknesses in their first game against them. Expect their run game to dictate the tempo, while their low risk passing game will be utilized to keep the Falcons defense honest.
Cons:
McCarland health is a huge x- factor. He is listed as questionable, and provides the Bucs the best chance of shutting down the Falcons run game. If he is unable to go, the Falcons interior run game should improve substantially, and also makes the Bucs run defense more prone to be worn down later into the game. Vick saw a much similar defense just a few days ago, and should now be able to adjust better to whatever the Bucs decide to throw at him. Crumpler?s match up is vital for the success of the Falcons passing game, and he matches up rather well against the Bucs personnel and coverage schemes. Simms is also a concern. He seemed lost under pressure last week, and his line is not giving him ample time to throw the ball. Aside from last week, the Falcons are one of the hardest teams to throw first level passes against- a passing scheme the Bucs heavily rely on. His thumb might be bothering him more than he admits, and if he us understating his injury, this bet is in big trouble. The Bucs seem not to play much better at home, therefore, from that standpoint, home field advantage is minimized.
Conclusion:
Divisional rivalries with playoff implications for both teams are my favorite games to handicap. The reason? Both teams are most like to play to form, allowing the fundamental handicapper with a great advantage. Fundamentally breaking down this game, the Bucs have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Add the home field advantage, and laying three points is well worth the risk in my opinion. My money is on the Buccaneers
