False value today?

[Nick Douglas]

This is kind of the pot calling the kettle black since I played Detroit with Weaver but I just want to warn people to do thorough handicapping today because there looks to be a lot of false value out there. Getting +180 with Carpenter or +190 with Anderson or +205 with Mattes all looks nice but they have to win ballgames on the road against better pitchers for you to collect. I know when I looked at today's card my jaw almost dropped and I thought I would have a half dozen plays but when I handicapped them, to me it looks like most of these big dogs are big dogs today for a reason.

Good luck if you guys play them but just be careful, that's all.

 

[pepin46]

i don't know, nick. they look awful close, with just barely an advantage for the home team.

i played them (det and tor) based on my perception of there being a lot of value in them.

betting only these two makes a lot of sense, as a split means a monster return. isn't that the nick way?


pep

 

[pepin46]

to clarify

oak, st louis and atlanta are untouchable in my opinion. agree there.


pep

 

[Happy'Capper]

Nick,
In my estimation these three have artificial value:
Expos (Mattes)
Pirates (Anderson)
Tigers (Weaver)
Royals (Suppan)
The favorites are just to tuff to overcome in these games in my opinion.

The big dogs that may have some bite today are:
Reds (Reitsma)
BJ's (Carpenter)
Solid starters in fact as I stated in my posted plays Carpenter is a road warrior at 6-1 and a 2.59 ERA and has allowed only 1 Earned Run in his last 13 IP on the road.

Burnett is tired back to back 114 pitch performances and Reitsma is 3-1 on the road. I am not playing the Reds but it does have "REAL" Value.

One man's two cents,
HC

 

[JT Sneaks]

I agree with you there is some false value out there....

Montreal
Here is a game with false value, although you have the expos playing good ball and I don't think mattes is good enough to win here and atlanta and maddux has hit his groove[/b]

Pittsburgh
More false value here. Kile does not have great numbers against the bucs, but the bullpen for the pirates was used yesterday and it is hard to ignore the dominanace the cards have had over the pirates...

I also agree with pep...
Detroit
The difference between this game and the two above is that you get Detroit's ace in this one. The tigers have also played very well of late and the have had clutch hitting even in yesterday's loss and that could be crucial in what could be a close game. The indians are not playing well at home and have recently been bit by the injury bug.

Blue Jays
Again you get another ACE here for the hot blue jays who go against the slumping yanks. The blue jays only gained momentum and confidence when the beat rivera in yesterday's contest.

I, like you, looked at today's board and thought about taking every huge dog thinking the worst I could do was split. But, you were right after digging in the numbers I did find some false value today, but I also think there are some good ones too

Just a thought,


JT

Sneaks

 

[Happy'Capper]

Sneaks,
I always respect your plays, but I have to differ with you on Detroit, just a little. At that high of number I can much see going with them instead of say Pitt or Montreal.

The reason I am not sure is the Detroit bullpen stinks on ice and it is going to come into play today. Weaver is coming off a 111 pitch performance and has to face a potent lineup card. Physical and mental fatigue could oust him by the 7th. This isn't the DRays lineup today. On the other side Colon is coming off a 67 pitch no earned run outing which he got ejected in the middle of the game. He will be able to go much farther. That all being said I wish you the best on your play.

HC

 

[Hoops]

On Sunday's, the usual big name pitchers and teams are always going to be bumped-up an additional ten cents or more. No surprise there.

[This message has been edited by Hoops (edited 07-22-2001).]