Fantasy League 1st pick

Valuist

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I've got the first pick in my Fantasy League. Here is the odds of who I'd take:

Priest Holmes 3-5
Portis 5-2
Ricky Williams 10-1
Tomlinson scratch

IMO, this is a two horse race. I don't trust Williams enough. He's had injury and weight problems in the past. It looks like the Priest is healthy; if he's healthy, there's nobody better. 24 TDs in 14 games. He is a great receiver also. Portis looked awesome last year gaining over 1500 yards and 5.5 ypc and he only started around 12 games. Curious to hear any feedback on the # 1 pick.
 

jroot

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Did I miss something on LT? LT was a stud last year as the only option in the SD offense and should have more room this year with the arrival of Boston. Neal should also be a better blocker for him than McCrary was last year. In my opinion, I think it's a two horse race between Portis and LT for the top spot. I agree with you on Ricky...too many issues/potential issues with this nut.

I'm picking fifth in my league and feel like Priest will fall to me. I see the top five as this...

1. LT
2. Portis
3. Holmes
4. Williams
5. Faulk
 

dawgball

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Let me get this straight. You have eliminated Williams due to injury, but you are 3-5 to take Holmes?

I think if you are down to Holmes or Portis, there is no question that you are safer with Portis.

I think Williams is the choice, though. Holmes should not be considered until the 5th or 6th pick, IMO only.

Good luck!
 

"TheEdge"

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Faulk is still king

Faulk is still king

When healthy as he is now- nobody can compare with the Faulkster, The only player close to him is LT!!!
Faulk ( by a long shot)
Tomlinson
Holmes
Portis
Williams

fuggedaboutit
 

Valuist

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Dawgball-

I'm basically not going to take Williams because I think he's a head case. I figured he'd have a monster season last year trying to impress his new team. We'll see if he has that attitude this year.

The Edge-

You must be living in 1999 or 2000 because the #1 RB the past 2 years has been The Priest.....by far. Here are how Holmes, Faulk, Portis, Williams, Alexander and Tomlinson have done the past 2 season (which I feel is a much better gauge than just the previous year)

Rush Yards
1. Holmes 3170
2. Williams 3098
3. Tomlinson 2919
4. Alexander 2493
5. Faulk 2335
6. Portis 1508 (2002 only)

Yards per carry
1. Portis 5.5
2. Holmes 5.0
3. Faulk 4.9
4. Williams 4.5
5. Alexander 4.1
Tomlinson 4.1

Receiving Yardage
1. Faulk 1302
2. Holmes 1286
3. Williams 874
4. Tomlinson 856
5. Alexander 803
6. Portis 364 (one season)

TDs rushing and receiving
1. Holmes 34
Alexander 34
3. Faulk 31
4. Tomlinson 25
5. Williams 24
6. Portis 17 (one season)

Total rush/receiving yards per game
1. Holmes 148.5 (30 games)
2. Faulk 129.9 (28 games)
3. Williams 124.1 (32 games)
4. Tomlinson 118.0 (32 games)
5. Portis 117.0 (16 games)
6. Alexander 103.0 (32 games)

For some reason, nobody wants to give The Priest his due. You can't argue with the above numbers.
 

Lightning

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Fantasy Running Backs

Fantasy Running Backs

I have the #1 pick in my league as well and I am trying to trade down cause I can't decide between these guys either.

Priest Holmes ... No doubt he has been the best RB the past 2 years ... I hated playing against him and the guy that had him the past two years in my league finished with the best record. If healthy, can't go wrong here.

LaDanian Tomlinson ... great player who gets plenty of touches ... no injury history (yet) ... Boston should open the offense up more and I agree that Neal is a great blocking fullback. Still not sure about the Chargers but the past 2 years, he put up great numbers for then and they were no better than they are now. Once again, can't go wrong here.

Clinton Portis ... put up awesome numbers in only 11 or 12 games started ... huge breakaway potential and plays for a Denver team that always seems to lead the league in rushing. I was not sure about this guy but I can't argue with the numbers hie put up the 2nd half of last year as he was almost as scary as Holmes ... I love him and I would like to trade down to #3 or #4 if I could still get him but I am not sure I want to take him over the above mentioned Holmes and LT. Has +2500 yard potential for sure as I think he gets over 1500 rushing again and plenty of receiving yeards too as long as Jake the Snake doesn't suck balls.

Ricky Williams ... I don't like RW, as I have been burned by him in the past when he was with the Saints, but he is going to gets more carries than any other back and the Dolphins are a good team who will rarely fall far behind and have to resort to throwing to play catchup. Could lead the league in rushing again but I don't trust him as much as the others.

Marshall Faulk ... the running back god of fantasy ... I just think he is on the downside at this point and more likely to encounter injuries than the above mentioned players. Granted, I would not be shocked if he led the league in all-around yards and TD's if he stays healthy and the Rams offense is clicking again. They need to get stud OL Orlando Pace in camp by the start of the season though for sure.

Shaun Alexander ... yes, he was a disappointment last year going in the top 3 picks in most drafts but he did score 18 TD's. The guy has major potential and Seattle's offense finally clicked the 2nd half of last year which is when Alexander did most of his damage including a 6-Td game. With Koren Robinson becoming an elite receiver and Hasselback running the offense much better than in pervious years, I think it's possible for Alexander to be as good as LT, Holmes, etc... another guy I would trade down and take if I get a chance.

Deuce McAllister ... Great all-around back who plays in another explosive offense ... was leading the NFC in rushing before being hampered and playing with injuries late in the season. I would not take him above any of the above mentioned guys but he should be a very solid #1 back again this year.

Travis Henry ... Henry put up great numbers last season despite the Bills tendency to throw the ball much more than run. Henry has always had issues with fumbling and although I could see him have an even better season than last year, I am a bit worried that Olandis Gary may steal a few Td's. Gary will be a solid backup and if you draft Henry, I would recommend getting Gary in the late rounds just in case.

Ahman Green ... Last year he was a top 3 pick in most drafts and he was a bit disappointing much like Alexander. Green is a bit injury prone but usually nothing too serious. He has great breakaway potential and is a good receiver. Another solid #1 back who I would grade similar to Henry.

Edgerrin James ... Here is the guy I am most intrigued by. He was right up there with Faulk and a definite top 3 back until his near injury 2 years ago. He was never 100% last year and he was a major disappointment but they usually say that it takes more than one year to get back to normal following major knee surgery. Supposedly he is as close to 100% as he is going to get. If he is healthy and considering the offensive machine he plays in ... he could jump right into the top 5 again. Much riskier than many of the other players in this group based on last years poor stats but he could be a huge steal.

Tiki Barber ... Tiki is the clear-cut #1 option in a Giants offense which is damn good. TE and but case Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer have really opened things up. Barber will take advantage as he is an excellent receiver who is great in open space. Although being an Eagles fan, I hate the Gaints and would not want to pick him, he is probably safer than James and may post similar numbers to someone such as Deuce McAllister.

Corey Dillon ... Yes, he plays for the Bungels and for that reason and that reason only, he will never make the Hall of Fame but this guy has incredible talent. Put him on the Broncos his entire career and he is going to chase Emmitt Smith and the other greats as one of the best backs ever to play. Not the best receiver but an awesome runner who had managed 1000+ yards and 10+ Td's despite playing on a team who is almost always behind and has rarely had a decent offensive line. Marvin Lewis is going to open up the offense and get the ball downfield and although Kitna stinks, Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick are nice weapons. Dillon may find the end aone quite a bit more this year and although I don't think the Bengals will win a lot of games, I don't think they are going to get blown out all the time either which means they shoudn't have to abandon the running game.

Fred Taylor ... Possibly the most talented pure RB in the NFL. If not for injuries, Taylor would be awesome ... Taylor managed a great year last year (he actually stayed healthy for once) despite being removed in goal line situation for backup Stacey Mack. With Mack now a Texan and a new coach in place, Taylor (if he can stay healthy) could once again return to the form he showed in his promising rookie year. If this happens, he will be a steal although I do not expect much from the rebuilding Jags.

Jamal Lewis ... This guy bounced back from similar surgery as James to have an unexpected great year. He is the focal point of the Raven offense and could be even better another year recovered from knee surgery. Ravens will run him plenty in their ball control offense and he is another of a plethora of backs who could put up #1 back type numbers.

Stephen Davis ... Davis is a workhorse who finds himself in a perfect situation for his style of running in Carolina. The Panthers will try to win and hang around in games by playing great defense and ball-control offense. That means pounding Davis 30 times a game. I'm not sure the Panthers will score too many points but I think Davis will score the majority of offense touchdowns. He is a bigger, faster and better version of Lamar Smith who posted some decent good numbers last year during the 1st half of the season for a much weaker Panther team. Once again, I think Davis could post great numbers and at worst be a great #2 back.

Eddie George ... George has been beat up plenty the past 2 years but he did manage to put up decent statistics last year although he was very inconsistent in doing so. The Titans are a good football team and I think George would be a solid #2 abck who should get 1000+ yards and could score 10+ Td's if healthy.
 
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Lightning

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Running Backs (cont.)

Running Backs (cont.)

Charlie Garner ... Garner had a phenominal year last season ... could he repeat it? Yes, but I doubt he will be a top 8 fantasy back like last year. Zach Crockett and even Tyrone Wheatley steal touches. Crockett has been the goal-line guy the past 2 years. Garner tends to do much damage with less touches than the top backs which is the only reason he likely won't finish with better fantasy stats even though he is a great talent who could go all the way every time he touches the ball. Oakland should get him more touches but even if they do, it's very unlikely he gets many goal line carries.

Curtis Martin ... Martin is one of the backs I will be avoiding this year. While he has no doubt be one of the more durable and consistent backs the past 8 or so years ... he is definitely on the downside and with talented youngster Lamont Jordan waiting in the wings, I think Martin will get less touches than in the past. I wouldn't be shocked if Jordan supplants him as the #1 back in the near future.

William Green ... Green was excellent the 2nd half of his rookie season and the Browns are explosive on offense, especially with newly named starter Kelly Holcombe at the controls. Green has speed and is a great receiver who like Garner is always a threat to break a big play. I like him much better than a guy like Martin this year.

Trung Canidate ... A huge wildcard who I will avoid despite great potential. The guy is fast no doubt but I just don't think he is a good NFL RB. The Redskins spread offense will give him plenty of room to manuever however if he does win the starting RB job. Canidate also was known as a fumbler in St. Louis and Spurrier will not put up with that. I see someone like Kenny Watson getting goal line touches even if Canidate gets the majority of work.

Kevan Barlow ... Personally I love this guys potential to be a great #1 NFL back but his attitude and lax work ethic have kept him from taking the #1 job from good guy and hard worker Garrison Hearst. With new coach Dennis Erickson in place, maybe this is the year Barlow emerges and fulfills his potential. You could probaby get in the mniddle rounds of the draft as many people would probably take Hearst earlier but I think this guy is a great sleeper who could be a very good #2 fantasy back.

I may add more to this later including thoughts on sleepers like Correll Buckhalter, Marcell Shipp, Lamont Jordan, Stacey Mack, T.J. Duckett, Thomas Jones...
 
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Valuist

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Last minute change of mind; a combination of a possible Holmes holdout and some concern about health. Ended up taking Portis. 5.5 ypc and 17 TDs and he only started 12 games. I won't complain.
 

"TheEdge"

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Nice pick Valuist

Nice pick Valuist

I love Portis anywhere in the top 4. My concern with Priest is his Hip. It is NOT 100%, it may be but I am not convinced the gamble is worth it. Portis on the other hand plays behind the toughest and smartest 'O' line in Football, and is clearly the number 1 back on the team. My only worry with Portis is Mike Anderson stealing the goal-line carries as he did several times last year.
GL great pick V
 

Valuist

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Here's how our first round went:

1. Portis
2. Williams
3. Faulk
4. Tomlinson
5. Alexander
6. Manning:eek:
7. Holmes
8. F. Taylor
9. Owens
10. A. Green
11. Gannon
12. McNabb
 

"TheEdge"

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WOW!!!!:shrug:

WOW!!!!:shrug:

I dont understand the Manning, F.Taylor and Gannon picks. Both Edgerrin and Moss would have been more productive choices. Dont you agree?
 

Houston

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Wow I can't imagine what the #7 guy was thinking when the guy before him took Manning! And McNabb was all the way at #12...interesting. You never know what people will do...I ended up getting Portis, McAllister, and Travis Henry in my draft on Yahoo....I couldn't believe it. And still ended up with Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, and Matt Hasselback for QB.

My WR suck but figure I have plenty of trade bait when someone's QB (Vick) goes down then I can charge out the @$$ for 'em.
 

dawgball

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I mistakenly took Manning with the #7 pick in our 12 man draft. I was under the gun when I walked in the room and panicked. I regret not taking an available Shaun Alexander.

My roster:
QB Manning
QB Pennington
QB Doug Johnson (acquired by waiving RB Pittman)
RB William Green
RB Fred Taylor
RB Amos Zereoue
RB James Mungro
WR Koren Robinson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR Keenan McCardell
WR Brian Finneran
TE McMichael
TE Fauria
D/ST Jags
D/ST Eagles
K Carney

In our league passing TDs are also worth 6 points. This is one of the reason I think I jumped on Manning.
 

Trampled Underfoot

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Hows this. I get to keep Portis for a 3rd round pick. I also retained McCallister for my first round pick which turned out to be the last pick in the 1st round. Which means I get the first pick in the 2nd round. Not bad. :D Can you say three titles in four years!!!

This is my top eight backs:
1 Tomlinson
2 Portis
3 Williams
4 Faulk
5 Holmes
6 Alexander
7 McCallister
8 James (I'm hoping I get him with the 15th overall pick)
 

Valuist

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Edge-

I agree re: Manning and Taylor going too high. There's one woman in the league and she wanted to get Manning and as many Tenn. Vols and GB Packers as possible (strange mix). She could've taken Ahman Green 1st and probably still gotten Manning with the 2nd pick. Taylor always has injury concerns although he does have a ton of talent. If you knew he'd be healthy, then the pick might be ok. I like the Gannon pick. Our league is balanced unlike so many in which RBs dominate. Gannon has put up Marino like #s the past 4 years now. I had him last year and I could pencil in 300-350 yards passing every week. The guy who took Gannon 11th was able to get Travis Henry w/the 14th pick. I thought Owens was taken too high (I'd take Harrison in a heartbeat over him at WR); this year now you get a 1/2 pt for each reception....143 catches last year for MH. I also don't understand why McNabb is so highly rated for Fantasy Leagues. In real life, he's a great player but when it comes down to pure passing stats, he's never thrown over 25 TDs, or over 3400 yards or topped an 86 QB rating. He's also coming off a broken leg/(or foot) so I wouldn't expect him to run as much.

Trampled Underfoot-

Under what criteria could you have Tomlinson ranked number 1? If Holmes is healthy, LT isn't close. He isn't close to Portis, who averages almost 1.5 yards more per attempt. And he isn't better than Ricky Williams or Marshall Faulk. The numbers show he is about on par with Shaun Alexander.

The biggest sleeper this season? Maybe Ed McCaffery. He was hurt early last season so he had almost no stats. Yahoo had him ranked ridiculously low but Yahoo only uses last season in its rating criteria.
 
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Lightning

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Hey Jack

Hey Jack

We need a fantasy forum in here. I love fantasy football and baseball as well. It is so tough to project what a guy will do this year. Last year, the top 3 picks in many leagues were 1) Faulk, 2) Ahman Green, and 3) Alexander and none of them were nearly as good as Holmes, Williams, Tomlinson, McAllister and even Henry. This year, some guys ... maybe Edge, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, and even Stephen Davis or Eddie George could end up having a better years than the top few picks.

You just never know for sure what will happen.

PS. Manning will likely not go in our draft till late in round 2 or early round 3. Taylor may be worthy but probably could have been gotten in round 2 rather than round 1. In our league (in which QB's do get 6 point per TD pass, there will be anywhere from 8 to 10 running backs taken in round one simply cause they are harder to come by. We are only a 10 team league, not 12. You can always get a solid #1 QB like Brooks, McNair, Bledsoe, Favre, or Green between rounds 4 and 7.

I love this fantasy talk ... keep it going ... takes my mind off my losing streak in bases right now.

:com:
 

Trampled Underfoot

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I think Holmes, Faulk and Williams all come with the injury risk. As much as I love Portis I feel that Tomlinson is the safer pick. Tomlinson is also much more consistant than Alexander. There is no doubt if healthy Holmes and Faulk are better but I would not be willing to risk an early first round pick on those two. Fantasy football is won with mid-late round players who produce like first or second round players. There just is not much difference between Faulk/Holmes and Portis/Alexander. However if you can find a Portis in the middle of a draft like last year you would be on your way. To me its just not worth risking an injury to your first round pick.
 

"TheEdge"

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Dont count out Edgerrin finishing in the top 3

Dont count out Edgerrin finishing in the top 3

All reports from divisional scouts who have seen him practice say he looks not only faster than ever but angrier and more focused than at any time in his career. dance2
 

Valuist

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The James of 1999 would be top 3 worthy, but we don't know if that will happen. One more year following the surgery should help and you would expect him to improve on his 2002 numbers but just too risky to draft top 3, IMO.
 
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