I really feel that half the battle in beating the book is finding the most favorable betting situation. In today's industry it becoming harder and harder to do. In an era where the House is making more adjustments in a 24-hour period than we make all season we really have to look for the best situation to bet in. This applies to all facets of gambling not just sports. I will get into this in an in-depth look at favorable betting situations in the General Forum sometime this week. But for now I believe the most favorable situation for 1:00pm games is:
NY Jets +3 (+100)
-This is a contrarian play with 8 out of 10 bettors favoring the Giants.
-There is a lot of moneyline action on the Giants
-There is a lot of exotic action involving the Giants
-The shift towards balance took place last week with more early Dogs covering the number than usual.
-Contrary to popular belief this is a HOME game for the Jets as Jest seaon ticket holders will be the majority in the Meadowlands.
Some November specific TRENDS for the JETS that pertain to this game:
NYJ
-ARE 8-1-1 ATS L10 as an underdog in November
-ARE 6-1 L7 ATS off SU LOSS vs OPP off SU Win
Some November Specific Trends for the GIANTS:
NYG
-ARE 1-10 ATS off AWAY
-ARE 6-15 L21 in all NOVEMBER games
Now I will be the first to say that you cannot depend on trends and stats of this sort because most of the time they are meaningless, but...in the NFL I believe teams are creatures of habit and tendencies that start from the head coach and eventually roll down to the players over time. In New York, with both teams you have two head coaches that have been in place for a good amount of time and their coaching tendencies and habits have become the player's as well. So I alway like Month Specific trends to support or detract from my plays because they look into the tendencies of the team as a whole. You know that Under Fassel the Giants will start off slow every year. You know the Jets always seem to do the same under Herm Edwards. These are things we know are true because we see it happen each year with these coaches.
What I like most about this play:
Herm Edwards sacrificed one game (PHILLY) in order to get Pennington involved in real game situations last week. Pennington is a winner and I can trust my money with this kid like I did last year. He will live to punt if necessary and he will let his team make plays for him. He adds the extra nuances of mobility and athleticism that you just don't get in every starting QB in the league. He can be the X-Factor in a close game. On the other side of the ball, the Giants can't be trusted with money. They have more talent and do less with it than any other team in football. I will post now because we are running short on time and I could go on and on about how this game IS a favorable situation in that we put ourselves on the side of the HOUSE with the Jets more so than other games on the Board because of the in-city rivalry and the popularity of this game in general. Good Luck and I am playing this game $200 to make $200
NY Jets +3 (+100)
-This is a contrarian play with 8 out of 10 bettors favoring the Giants.
-There is a lot of moneyline action on the Giants
-There is a lot of exotic action involving the Giants
-The shift towards balance took place last week with more early Dogs covering the number than usual.
-Contrary to popular belief this is a HOME game for the Jets as Jest seaon ticket holders will be the majority in the Meadowlands.
Some November specific TRENDS for the JETS that pertain to this game:
NYJ
-ARE 8-1-1 ATS L10 as an underdog in November
-ARE 6-1 L7 ATS off SU LOSS vs OPP off SU Win
Some November Specific Trends for the GIANTS:
NYG
-ARE 1-10 ATS off AWAY
-ARE 6-15 L21 in all NOVEMBER games
Now I will be the first to say that you cannot depend on trends and stats of this sort because most of the time they are meaningless, but...in the NFL I believe teams are creatures of habit and tendencies that start from the head coach and eventually roll down to the players over time. In New York, with both teams you have two head coaches that have been in place for a good amount of time and their coaching tendencies and habits have become the player's as well. So I alway like Month Specific trends to support or detract from my plays because they look into the tendencies of the team as a whole. You know that Under Fassel the Giants will start off slow every year. You know the Jets always seem to do the same under Herm Edwards. These are things we know are true because we see it happen each year with these coaches.
What I like most about this play:
Herm Edwards sacrificed one game (PHILLY) in order to get Pennington involved in real game situations last week. Pennington is a winner and I can trust my money with this kid like I did last year. He will live to punt if necessary and he will let his team make plays for him. He adds the extra nuances of mobility and athleticism that you just don't get in every starting QB in the league. He can be the X-Factor in a close game. On the other side of the ball, the Giants can't be trusted with money. They have more talent and do less with it than any other team in football. I will post now because we are running short on time and I could go on and on about how this game IS a favorable situation in that we put ourselves on the side of the HOUSE with the Jets more so than other games on the Board because of the in-city rivalry and the popularity of this game in general. Good Luck and I am playing this game $200 to make $200
