FBS/FCS College Try w/HSF Degen Plays for 10/20-10/22

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Record To Date:

HSF Degen Plays: 29-10-1 (+41 units)
FCS Plays: 54-49 (-39.4 units)
D3: 0-2 (-7.2 units)
NCAAF D1: 55-62-4 (-58.5 Units)


Will update Soon 🔜 on baited breathe-


A new week means you can forget about the minor disasters that struck at the wrong time (not that there is ever a good time!

Thurs Ole College Try:

Memphis/Houston OVER 59.........7 units.. WIN

*Sure, why not....these two beat on each other last year in a big W for the Tiger Brand 48-44.....

-Tiger QB R Ferguson leads the conference with 1,814 pass yards and 19 Tds... He has some very capable receivers and dishes it around... WR Anthony Miller has 45 catches for 606 yards w/9 Tds..... These two have connected for a total of 22 Tds passes which is the most among active QB-WR combos...

Houston is in the mix of the Postma experience (has started last 3) and has had some decent numbers passing for 805 yards w/4 Tds... However, the turn-overs are a problem... Last week against Tulsa, Postma threw for 258 yards but had 2 picks (1 for a TD) and has had 5 INTs in last 3 games... Cougs best WR is Steven Dunbar who has 40 catches for 462 yards....Last week's loss to Tulsa, a game that Cougars were a -13' pt favorite, the Houston D gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground... The result was a 17-45 point outright loss... This could mean a gigantic game for Memphis RB Darrell Henderson who has 542 yards and 4 Tds on the rush... Cougars Air Defense can be exploited as they are ranked 71st in the Nation, allowing 226.7 ypg.......Last year, Ferguson threw for 409 yards with 4 TDs....

Memphis Defense isn't much better and if Postma can cut down on killer TOs he should be able to reach pay dirt.....Memphis is 96th in Nation in points allowed... They have surrendered a total of 2,865 yards (101st in D1).... The pass D has given up a total of 1,615 yards (99th in Nation) they are ranked 95th against the run...

Memphis loves the Turf where they are 6-0-1 in last 7....Against UConn 2 weeks ago, Tigers put up 70 points... R Ferguson passed for 431 yards w/7 TDs.... *A game I'm sure Edsall will not soon forget.... Houston D is 83rd in the Nation having given up 1,058 yards rushing... Memphis is 22nd in D1 in points scored (242) and 18th in total offense...

These two always play each other fairly close (past 3 have been decided by 4 points or less)... Cougs have win 11 straight conference home games and seemed to have Memphis number by winning 6 of the past 7.....however, Tigers have won 11 straight regular season non-Sat games (including last 6 on the road) *For those keeping track with meaningless ATS stuff..

Anybody who has watched the Cougars play this year comes away with that "something not right" feeling.... Both teams have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot with penaltys......I expect both teams to reach 30+ in this one so I'm happy with the OVER here... If push came to shove I think the wrong team is favored but I want to see what the line does....
 
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Thurs HSF:

(FDO)..

Harrison -12' Dalton (52")

I think it's safe to say that the biggest attraction for this game is the play and athleticism of Hoyas QB #1 Justin Fields.... He's the top rated recruit in the Nation, comes from Kennesaw, GA.... His Hoyas are 5-2 and playing Dalton Catamounts that sport a 6-1 record... This game could be the defacto Region 6A Title game...

SR QB J Fields (6'3" 221 lbs) plays like a man among boys.... He has had enormous pressure as the heralded #1 Composite National Prospect....He averages 206.2 pass yards per game, and rushes for 118 per game.... The one man gang averages a Total of 324.5 ypg.... Obviously this dual threat QB has tremendous arm strength as his QB class for the Nation has some very talented, strong passers.... In last years, 6A competition, he threw for 2,700 yards and rushed for 1,206....all the while leading Harrison to its first 10 win season since 2002... And it's first play-off win since 2008....He has every trait that a Div 1 program would ask for.... He runs a 4.51 40 yard dash.....So far this season, his numbers are 93 of 141 yards yards pass (. 660 completion rate) for 1,503 yards and 20 TDs with 2 INTs on the year... He has rushed for 748 yards w/14 TDs on 96 carries (7.8 ypc).......Despite what this young man brings to the table, anyone who has been around the game knows that in order to have such outstanding numbers, he has to have some pretty good athletes joining him on the field.... The O line is fairly strong and his Top WR is a Pre-season All-State pick, Steven Peterson (SR 6'2" 185 lb) who had 1,362 yards in 2016...

There's a lot of pressure following Fields and the team too... The Head Coach thinks that Fields and Co are dealing with the notoriety well.... There's actually a documentary being filmed about Fields and the program called "QB1.. Beyond the Lights" and the film crew is from ESPN, so that's added pressure... As they follow him around school and practice/games.... *Interestingly, the #2 QB is a kid from Cartersville, GA... His name is Trevor Lawrence, a 6' 6" 230 lb SR that is 105 yards passing and 6 TDs short of breaking the Georgia Career Record of 13,077 yards and 155 TDs that has been held by DeShawn Watson...... Many scouts think he is actually #1 as his skill set comes from a true Pro-Style passer... In addition, Lawrence has guided his team to 2 State Championships and thrown for over 10,000 career pass yards...... Lawrence is headed to Clemson, where he and Fields can continue breaking records and seeing who becomes the bigger star..... BTW; Fields is Georgia bound...

It's hard to believe that there is actually a football game being played tonight..... Dalton comes in with a 6-1 record with only loss to Season opener and Rival Calhoun (24-0)....The Catamounts are coming off of a 13-1 season, where they made it to the State Semi-finals..... They beat Fields and Harrison ly 31-14.....HC Matt Land is lauded as a winning HC that gets the most out of his players.... He knows he has his work cut out to replace so much from last year's #1 ranked 6A team... It's been a tremendous surprise to find his team at 6-1 in what he has called a rebuilding year.... Especially since the Catamounts only return 2 offensive starters and 3 Defenders... The offense averages 25.3 ppg while allowing 14.4 ppg... The team averages 186 yards per game rushing and only 108.4 ypg passing.... The program had to replace Austin Peay RB Aamad Tinker who rushed ly for 1,560 yards w/23 TDs on 29 carries...... This season, Starting QB (SR 6'1" 200 lbs) JP Tighe is also a dual threat (last year he passes for 2,127 yards w/21 TDs) *The fact that Tighe is even playing at all is a minor miracle as he had planned to focus on Baseball and skip his SR year on the gridiron...but for a team that had to replace 18 starters, it was a shot in the arm for the program and leadership... Joining him is Pre-season All-State (SR 5' 10" 175 lbs) Nasir Love-porter, a do it all athlete that will anchor the Secondary on D, and on Offense he will play WR while also filling in at QB in the Wildcat Formation..... The O Line is led by (SR 6' 4" 270 lb) Dylan Cole (full ride to UTC).... Also, transfer TE Hunter Brummel (6'7" 240) will be a part of a Double TE Set....Pre-Season All State Kicker Ivan Mora will be called upon to kick Field Goals and kick deep to keep Special Teams on their heels... HC Land was pretty clear that the greatest challenge has been the drop off in Defensive Front 7 and replacing LBS..... But in Lands 9 years of Coaching he is 63-25 so he will make it happen..

Hoyas Offense averages 41.1 ppg while giving up 22.3 ppg on Defense.... Both teams come in Ranked fairly high in 6A...... It can be a little confusing to find Dalton with the better record thus far, considering the schedule includes 6 teams that were in last year's playoffs.... HC Land says his offense is evolving each week with someone new stepping up... The mentality in the players is that they expect to Win as does the community........ Both teams played like opponents, Sprayberry (Harrison won 63-41...Dalton won 41-0)...against River Ridge (Harrison won 49-0.....Dalton won 25-0).....

So where am I going with this? I played the OVER 52'.3 units......Win

Also played 2 UNITS on Dalton +12'.....WIN as I think Dalton may have the better Defense here and should keep them in it.... I'm not impressed with the Defense from Harrison as they have allowed some very mediocre teams to put up points against them.... Daltons QB might be playing with a chip on his shoulder to give a little impetus to give 110%....I think this one could stay within a TD either way... Should be a fun one to watch.. Gluck!
 
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Rockin and Rollin on Thursday Night....3 - 0 on HSF and D1 Memphis/Houston Over...Tuff Crowd :0002

Fryday Nyte Lytes:

Lincoln -22' Bonney Lake (45')

In case you were wondering... This match takes place in the State of Washington.... Lincoln hails from Tacoma WA... Which reminds me of Tom Tuttle and his Peace Corp experience? Am I dating myself again?... 👌 OK... To the heart of the matter... I know you come into my threads to memorize the crazy stats I find to support my Degenerate Prognostication of wayward High School Football plays, so you can make enough to buy that large pizza 🍕 delivered while we watch the games that really matter on Saturday...... So, in the name of Deep Dish everywhere.... I digress.

What makes this game special? Not sure I have an answer for this one... It might be the cool mascot for Lincoln "Abes" as it certainly hits the high water mark of originality.... It's foe is the Bonney Lake Panthers that sport a 2-5 record, with 2 wins against teams that have combined to win a game each.... Offensively the Panthers average 15.9 ppg and allows 28.2 ppg... They are ranked #124 in WA and #37 in Div 3A....in 2016, they were 9-4-1 and played in the Div3A playoffs losing in the Elite 8.....Last year's team shared the best record in the Pierce County League... Unfortunately, graduation took its toll on the program and there were some big holes to fill... The thing is there were plenty of athletes to field a competitive squad, but through injuries, attrition, poor coaching, possible parent upheaval.... This team is going through the motions and finding stats to back a possible play is like pulling teeth...which tells me there are numerous issues, so why waste my time..

On the other hand, Lincoln Abes come in 6-1 and are looking to solidify a high playoff seed while winning the League Title (something they have done since 2013-2016...The Abes average 41 ppg while holding to 11.4 ppg... The offense is clicking averaging 402.4 yards per game... They are ranked #22 in WA and #7 in Div 3A.... They manage almost a 50/50 split with 192.9 rush yards per game... and 209.6 pass yards per game.... 6 returning offensive starters and 7 Defensive Starters bring back some cohesiveness to a productive team...

The Abes are well coached by 3rd year HC Masaki Matsumoto.....The HC is a interesting human interest story on his own... If you didn't notice, there aren't a lot of Coaches that are Japanese at any level... I played College ball and was trying to rack my noggin to remember if I played with any Japanese players or was ever Coached...After reading this guys story, I came away amazed at what he had to offer and what he brings to his programs.... He got his start in southern CA taking over the reigns of a school that was floundering... Bernstein High went 29-8 in 3 years he was there; this included a prestigious Coach of the Year Award by the LA Times in 2013....He ended up in Washington when Lincoln of Tacoma lost their HC Jon Kitna (yes, the Seattle QB) who was 24-8 in 3 years at Lincoln (his Alma Mater).... Kitna was offered a job as Coach/Teacher in Texas, and having a QB gifted son that was starting High School, he decided to make a switch, which opened the doors for Matsumoto... What really impressed me was his willingness to reach out to successful Coaches like legendary HC T Bainter of Bothell and pick their brain for what has worked for them in building successful and competitive football programs....*Sometimes Football Coaches can have tremendous ego which gets in the way of using tried and proven techniques....Masaki preaches "Discipline, Accountability, Love all equal Success..." if you have these things then winning is just a by product....

The program has a few D1 athletes and Tacoma is the States 3rd largest population, so there is plenty of kids to feed the program...which is another highlight (getting kids off the streets and on the field).... Matsumoto will no doubt end up with many awards in his future and I got carried away watching several interviews on YouTube about his philosophy that I almost forgot why I was interested in the first place...

I played 3 units on The Abes -24... WIN... 62-14...they did name the score it looks like Lincoln can name the score... Lincoln beat Bethel 44-29 Bonney Lake lost 28-14....../ Lincoln beat Wilson 44-0 Bonney Lake won 34-19../ Lincoln beat Lakes 30-19 Bonney Lake lost 45-0.../ Lincoln beat Mt Tahoma 44-0.... Bonney Lake won 21-7....

I think you see where I'm going with this... Should be a relatively easy W and I'm not sure Bonney can score in this one while a 30+ point Win is what I'm thinking....The line opened at - 22' and I don't see it dropping.. Gl
 
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Rd 2....

Game: McKeesport -1'Gateway (58')


My oh My.... Another Big match-up from the Keystone St.... This one matches 2 of the most opposite offensive philosophies that you can find at the high school level...

McKeesport Tigers are 6-1 and beginning to make noise as the WPIAL Class 5A Big East leader... 3rd year HC Matt Miller continues his winning ways as last year's squad came close to winning the WPIAL Title... losing to W Allegheny in OT in the 5A final... The school has one State Ring in 2005.....Still, the programs success is evident by winning League Crowns in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2013....this in what's always a very talented and deep field... Offensively the Tigers average 39.1 ppg and only allow 9.7 ppg.... They are currently ranked #42 in PA and #10 in 5A...... The team averages a mind numbing total yards of 382.5 yards per contest (24 of those yards are by the pass).. *No, not a typo..... Tigers run the ball 90% of the time... From day 1 it is beat into the Offensive Line to get off hard, fast and low while sustaining your blocks.... The program runs a Flex-Bone Triple Option attack.... and is fortunate to have a bevy of talented skill position players returning including QB (Sr 6'0" 175 lbs) John Harper (Kent St commit) is a converted QB from a productive WR/RB role where he rushed for 400 yards last year w/5 TDs (he also plays two ways as a FS)..... Joining him in the backfield is Sr RB (6'3" 210 lbs) Jordan Layton also plays SS but rushed for 670 yards ly and is considered one of the best all - around players in 5A (several Mid-American colleges showing interest)... Also, Sr RB/CB Carlinos Acie is a 2 year starter who was 2nd team All-Conference and rushed for over 600 yards.... Leading a very young and inexperienced OLine is Sr Alex Meadows (6'5" 270 lbs) this behemoth gashes holes and has several offers from Power 5 Colleges.... The addition of RBs Kanota Gaskins (Jr 6'0" 190 lb) and transfer addition Marquis Butler (6'0" 205) also converts to DE and FB.... Unfortunately, like the OLine, the D line is also very young and inexperienced and has played way above expectations so far....

On the flip side is Gateway, who premiers Sr QB Brady Walker (6'0' 180 lbs) as a Jr he completed 171 of 289 passes for 2,820 yards w/28 TDs and rushed for 490 yards..... He's a 3 year starter that's surpassed school records of most passing TDs in a season (28) most pass yards in a game (465) most pass yards in a season (2,820) and has already broke the record for career pass yards... Of course to run a spread attack like the Gators employ, you have to max protect and he's fortunate to have some veterans on the OLine.... Also, to be successful, he has to have athletes that can catch a football... One of the best WR in the State is Jr WR /ATH /DB Courtney Jackson (5'11" 170 lbs) last year he had 30 catches for 511 yards w/8 TDs... The offense averages 41.1 ppg and D allows 16.1 ppg.... Last year, Gateway lost twice to McKeesport 34-19 in regular season and 41-38 in playoffs.... Already this year, Walker has thrown for over 2,000 yards and over 6,000 for his career.... The team does miss not having their all section Kicker and Punter....

So where do we go from here? I'm thinking the pots light for these two programs that although their defenses have shut down opponents, a closer look at some of the teams played weren't necessarily strong on Offense to begin with.... These 2 stats show very different styles of offensive philosophy... QB Harper for McKeesport has thrown 12 passes All Season.... QB Walker for Gateway averages 25 passes per game.

It will be RUN vs PASS in this one... Who can argue which is the best style when you consider both teams have only 1 loss... The Key will be the McKeesport Pass Rush and Defensive Back play! Tigers run game should put them over the top... And as my old Varsity Football Coach used to say "when you pass, 3 things can happen and two of them are bad".... Think I would back the tricky Triple Option, however, Give me the Over...

3 Units on the OVER 58.. LOSS 21-18

I'LL BE BACK WHEN MY SOUTHERN CA SWAMI GETS ME HIS OPINION ON THE SERRA/BISHOP AMAT WISDOM.
 
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Musca

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Sierra most likely without studd QB again

Sierra most likely without studd QB again

Not his first week missing... I think his 3rd.. He has a lacerated Kidney. Bishop Amat offense is rolling. I just feel like this is good set up for Amat to sneak in here and get the win. Sierra is good even without Blaze McKibbin but I think he is a difference maker.

Bishop Amat +3
 

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Not his first week missing... I think his 3rd.. He has a lacerated Kidney. Bishop Amat offense is rolling. I just feel like this is good set up for Amat to sneak in here and get the win. Sierra is good even without Blaze McKibbin but I think he is a difference maker.

Bishop Amat +3

Tend to agree here.... Blaze (love that name) definitely out nursing that lacerated kidney.. Amat has a tendency to kick it in 2nd gear this time of year.... My only issue is that Amat has benefited from a friendly break in schedule.... Granted, they played some very good teams in the 0-4 start... Which may have set them up for this stiffer comp.... I think you just talked me into it....
 

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So my southern comfort... Err connection is agreeing with Musca.... Who am I to rock da boat...

Last HSF Tonight:

Serra (Gardena) -3 Bishop Amat (55)

Big time Missionary League tilt tonight....

Bishop Amat Lancers (3-4) plays Serra Cavaliers (4-3)..... Amat isn't tearing up the field only averaging 21.3 ppg and allowing 25.28, however, Lancers played a murderers row in the first 4 that included the #1 team in Nation (Mater Dei), J Serra Catholic (7-0) and Loyola (7-1) and Rancho Cucamonga (6-1)... I wouldn't wish that schedule on my worst enemy..... The problem is that the following 3 wins were against a 2-9 combined record.... So what does that mean exactly? Hell if I know, but Amat is well coached and while last years 7-4 win/loss was considered a rebuilding year for the talent they had, this years team will compete and are probably a year away....

Serra Cavaliers (4-3) actually come into this behind in rankings to Amat.... albeit by 1 digit in the SS and the Div 1....In state, the Cash ranked 30 Amat 29....(so state too)... The offense is averaging 33.4 ppg and allows 24.1. The Cavs are tied for first in Mission but lost opener to a very good Chaminade team...Cavs have several D1 athletes but lost their starting QB Blaze McKibbins to a lacerated kidney (sounds bad anyway)... Last week, Soph Doug Brumfield filled in and completed 25 of 32 passed for 353 yards w/5 TDs against Notre Dame... All Section WR Bryan Addison had 8 catches for 94 yards (he's 6'5" 180 lbs) and has several Major programs making offers.... His gridiron twin, Kobe Smith had 7 catches for 113 yards so its pretty obvious that the team trusts the Soph to wing it all over the place....

Amat has been pretty even on the play calling and of course had its own D1 athletes looking to boost their image.... Team averages 150.7 yards rushing per game (by a stable of RB) and passes for 177.1 ypg..... What isn't really being talked about is that Lancers can put themselves in the talk for a Mission League Championship if they can steal one on the road here..... You'd be hard pressed to find a team playing better than the Lancers (which fits their MO and speaks volumes about their Coaching Staff) having them in the thick of things each year no matter how they started out of the gate.... Last week against Crespi, Lancers rang up 497 total yards of offense (the best of the season)...

Should be a good one no matter what.... I played 2 Units on BA +3... WIN .1 unit on the Under 55.. WIN. *Thanks to Musca for getting me off the fence
 
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Musca

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Please know

Please know

I am far from a California high school follower... I just did some research. I think Amat is hitting their stride and Sierra starting the Sophomore again. I kind of think this is going to be high scoring.


FWIW- I was allowed to play this for 200 but they will not let me play any of my FCS plays for more than 100 still. Assholes are killing me. I have to wager, wait until they move the line and then wager etc etc. It is exhausting. On a 4 or 5 dollar play I am stuck with lines like +2, Pk, -1.5, -3 and -4.5... It is insane. But, they are the only ones carrying my lines so nothing I can do...

I registered my domain yesterday-
www.x-factorsports.com

There is no content yet but we will be working on it over the next few days weeks. I will cover College hoops and Football.... I got really really busy with work again (not complaining) for some reason and it has put me on my back foot.
 

Riff-Raff

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I am far from a California high school follower... I just did some research. I think Amat is hitting their stride and Sierra starting the Sophomore again. I kind of think this is going to be high scoring.


FWIW- I was allowed to play this for 200 but they will not let me play any of my FCS plays for more than 100 still. Assholes are killing me. I have to wager, wait until they move the line and then wager etc etc. It is exhausting. On a 4 or 5 dollar play I am stuck with lines like +2, Pk, -1.5, -3 and -4.5... It is insane. But, they are the only ones carrying my lines so nothing I can do...

I registered my domain yesterday-
www.x-factorsports.com

There is no content yet but we will be working on it over the next few days weeks. I will cover College hoops and Football.... I got really really busy with work again (not complaining) for some reason and it has put me on my back foot.

Will definitely check out your site... I'm fine tuning some FCS plays, so hopefully can start turning a profit, instead of giving in the extra juice..... As far as the sporadic and schizophrenia of our beloved book, I have been playing alot of Open Parlays and making a nice return with only filling out 2-3 teams on Sat, providing my HSF plays are hitting which has been the case... I'm curious if others are playing some of these games? There's been some very nice spots with a little legwork.
 

Musca

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plays

plays

I have played every high school play you have posted unless lines moved too far save for a couple... I enjoy them.

FCS- If you dont do your homework on it then it is tough to beat just using power rankings etc.


Bishop Amat just threw a pick 6... 7-0 in the second.
 

Musca

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Bishop Amat

Bishop Amat

Amat took control in the second half. They had the ball for almost 34 minutes in the game. It really was pretty dominating of a game. Amat wins 21-14.

Yeehaw.
 

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Amat took control in the second half. They had the ball for almost 34 minutes in the game. It really was pretty dominating of a game. Amat wins 21-14.

Yeehaw.

Thanks for getting me off the fence... My highest rated play tonight was the bloodbath that Lincoln trounced Bonney Lake... That with the Amat game gives me some very Live Parlay Cards that are open... Only loss was the McKeesport/Gateway game which was played a lot tighter than anticipated... Also needed help with New Mexico but I know better than asking Lobo to do something nice..

My FCS plays are live when two fall within my power numbers... I then handicap History - Common Opponents - Injury - etc.... My record on posted plays is 54-49-1...but as you know the juice is taking its toll..... This time of year my numbers identify some big discrepancies, I'm excited for tomorrow's action... *some of the games I can get (-110) at various Sportsbooks in Reno and Tahoe... Had a nice win tonight on Princeton (forgot to post it) but had the wager at Cal Neva... I'm curious what your looking at on the website your putting together... **What's funny is that my largest wagers are rarely posted as I hammer specific spots at halftime... I simply don't have the time to post my halftime bets as things move too fast... Hell I don't even post NFL games anymore and again my largest bets are placed at halftime... Looking forward to tomorrow's games..
 

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Sat Walk in da Park...

FCS Stuff:

Colombia/Dartmouth OVER 43'.....4 units

Campbell/Butler OVER 42......4 units

Samford/Wofford OVER 54....3 units

W Carolina -27'.......5 units

The Citadel -3'.....3 units

UTM -7......5 units

Alcorn St +4'.......4 units

Bucknell -1..........3 units

SoEastLA -5.......5 units

Elon -9'.......3 units

Let's see how these morning plays do... Need a Big Day All Around.
 

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Sat reg.....

Akron +14'......3 units

Purdue -8......4 units

Virginia -7.....4 units

Iowa St /Tex Tech OVER 68...8 units

Minnesota -14......3 units

CFLA/Navy OVER 65..... 10 units

Ohio -19.....5 units

Army TT Over 26......4 units

Maryland TT Over 13....5 units

Missouri -14.....3 units

Buffalo +2'.....3 units

EMU /WMU OVER 50.....10 units

Tulsa /Uconn Over 74.... 4 units

Back later I hope!
 
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