Federal Election in Canada on June 28!!
- Thread starter kickserv
- Start date
Pinnacle just posted some odds too and there is one that looks like free money!!!
$$$
Past go and collect 200$ on that one:
How many seats won by the Bloc Quebecois
UNDER 60.5 seats -110 (max limit!!!)
Easy one!!!!
$$$Past go and collect 200$ on that one:
How many seats won by the Bloc Quebecois
UNDER 60.5 seats -110 (max limit!!!)
Easy one!!!!
There are 75 seats in Quebec aren't there? 60 doesn't sound impossible to me. I have heard estimates as high as 60. That does seem to be a bit on the high side though for a betting line...but not unbeatable. The West Montreal ridings will all go Liberal I assume, but there are like, what, 6 or 7 of those? Hull will probably go Liberal. But other than that...hmmm.... I honestly would not be surprised to see the Bloc sweep the rest of the province.
Even non-separatists are saying Duceppe is running a good campaign. He hasn't made any serious mistakes that I can see, and he was considered the easy winner of the French debate. Even many of the English thought he was at worst #2 in the English debate, ahead of Martin and Layton. He's keeping sovereignty on the back-burner (as much as possible), keeping the extremist parts of his party quiet and in the background. He may pick up a lot of the moderate voters who are fooled into thinking a vote for the BQ is "a vote for Quebec" and not a vote for separation.
Even non-separatists are saying Duceppe is running a good campaign. He hasn't made any serious mistakes that I can see, and he was considered the easy winner of the French debate. Even many of the English thought he was at worst #2 in the English debate, ahead of Martin and Layton. He's keeping sovereignty on the back-burner (as much as possible), keeping the extremist parts of his party quiet and in the background. He may pick up a lot of the moderate voters who are fooled into thinking a vote for the BQ is "a vote for Quebec" and not a vote for separation.
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Interesting election facts
Interesting election facts
In the 2000 election, of the 301 ridings in the country, only 33 actually changed hands from one party to another. In 6 of those cases the people elected the same person that was in before, but the candidate was running for a different party. So really very little changed between '97 and '00.
In 2000:
The Liberals gained 7 seats previously held by the Bloc, took 8 from the Conservatives, 6 from the NDP, and 1 that had been held by an Independent. They also lost 6 seats that they previously held. Net gain = +16.
Reform gained 4 seats from the Liberals, 3 from the NDP, and lost 1 seat. Net gain = +6.
Bloc gained 1 from the Conservatives, and lost 7. Net loss = -6.
Conservatives gained 1 from the Bloc, and lost 9. Net loss = -8.
NDP gained 2 from the Liberals and lost 9. Net loss = -7.
The lone independent lost their seat. Net loss = -1.
Results by province of the '00 election
Newfoundland: 5 Liberal , 2 Conservative
PEI: 4 Liberal
Nova Scotia: 4 Liberal , 4 Conservative , 3 NDP
New Brunswick: 6 Liberal , 3 Conservative , 1 NDP
Quebec: 38 Bloc , 36 Liberal , 1 Conservative
Ontario: 99 Liberal , 2 Reform , 2 NDP
Manitoba: 5 Liberal , 4 NDP , 4 Reform , 1 Conservative
Saskatchewan: 10 Reform , 2 Liberal , 2 NDP
Alberta: 23 Reform , 2 Liberal , 1 Conservative
British Columbia: 27 Reform , 5 Liberal , 2 NDP
Territories: 3 Liberal
Totals: 171 Liberal , 66 Reform , 38 Bloc , 14 NDP , 12 Conservative
It's pretty easy to see why they say if you win Ontario you win the election. Count on the Liberals losing probably half of their Ontario seats...most of them to the Conservatives, some to the NDP. And I think they could be reduced to ~10 seats in Quebec - all of them going to the Bloc. The West should stay about the same, with what little Liberal support there was maybe disappearing. The Territories always go Liberal, with an occasional NDP member making it. Atlantic Canada is pretty stable and should send more Liberals than Conservatives. If they don't, this may be an early indicator that a Conservative majority is in the works (though I doubt it).
This go around there are 308 ridings, up 7 from the past 2 elections. And of course the Reform and Conservatives are now merged into one party.
By my estimation the Liberals could be dropped to somewhere between 90 and 100 seats. About 125 Conservative seats. NDP may make small gains in Ontario and BC...I'd give them 25. Bloc around 60 really does sound about right to me.
Interesting election facts
In the 2000 election, of the 301 ridings in the country, only 33 actually changed hands from one party to another. In 6 of those cases the people elected the same person that was in before, but the candidate was running for a different party. So really very little changed between '97 and '00.
In 2000:
The Liberals gained 7 seats previously held by the Bloc, took 8 from the Conservatives, 6 from the NDP, and 1 that had been held by an Independent. They also lost 6 seats that they previously held. Net gain = +16.
Reform gained 4 seats from the Liberals, 3 from the NDP, and lost 1 seat. Net gain = +6.
Bloc gained 1 from the Conservatives, and lost 7. Net loss = -6.
Conservatives gained 1 from the Bloc, and lost 9. Net loss = -8.
NDP gained 2 from the Liberals and lost 9. Net loss = -7.
The lone independent lost their seat. Net loss = -1.
Results by province of the '00 election
Newfoundland: 5 Liberal , 2 Conservative
PEI: 4 Liberal
Nova Scotia: 4 Liberal , 4 Conservative , 3 NDP
New Brunswick: 6 Liberal , 3 Conservative , 1 NDP
Quebec: 38 Bloc , 36 Liberal , 1 Conservative
Ontario: 99 Liberal , 2 Reform , 2 NDP
Manitoba: 5 Liberal , 4 NDP , 4 Reform , 1 Conservative
Saskatchewan: 10 Reform , 2 Liberal , 2 NDP
Alberta: 23 Reform , 2 Liberal , 1 Conservative
British Columbia: 27 Reform , 5 Liberal , 2 NDP
Territories: 3 Liberal
Totals: 171 Liberal , 66 Reform , 38 Bloc , 14 NDP , 12 Conservative
It's pretty easy to see why they say if you win Ontario you win the election. Count on the Liberals losing probably half of their Ontario seats...most of them to the Conservatives, some to the NDP. And I think they could be reduced to ~10 seats in Quebec - all of them going to the Bloc. The West should stay about the same, with what little Liberal support there was maybe disappearing. The Territories always go Liberal, with an occasional NDP member making it. Atlantic Canada is pretty stable and should send more Liberals than Conservatives. If they don't, this may be an early indicator that a Conservative majority is in the works (though I doubt it).
This go around there are 308 ridings, up 7 from the past 2 elections. And of course the Reform and Conservatives are now merged into one party.
By my estimation the Liberals could be dropped to somewhere between 90 and 100 seats. About 125 Conservative seats. NDP may make small gains in Ontario and BC...I'd give them 25. Bloc around 60 really does sound about right to me.
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GM,
No way the Bloc go higher than 60 seats!:nono: The max i see is 58 no more! Remember that they never had more than 53 seats in their history and when it happened, we were on referendum mood. True Liberals suck big time here with their campaign but i'll give them at least 15 seats down here. I know my province , trust me, this one is in the bag!!!! $$$$
PS: If the Bloc goes higher than 60 seats, i will eat my short live on a web cam!!!! :tongue
No way the Bloc go higher than 60 seats!:nono: The max i see is 58 no more! Remember that they never had more than 53 seats in their history and when it happened, we were on referendum mood. True Liberals suck big time here with their campaign but i'll give them at least 15 seats down here. I know my province , trust me, this one is in the bag!!!!
$$$$PS: If the Bloc goes higher than 60 seats, i will eat my short live on a web cam!!!!
:tongue
I just finished watching P. Martin for the last hour. I voted for Libs. in the last election. There is no way in hell I wiill vote for this vaccillating, equivocating, fence sitter this time around. Now I have until Monday to decide who is worthy of a vote. It`s time for a change. My biggest fear is, everybody else scares the hell out of me.
Good luck Canada.
Skanoochies.:shrug:
Good luck Canada.
Skanoochies.:shrug:
Any lowdown on Belinda Stronach. Have read some articles on her that I found quite interesting. Some seem to think she may be destined for Prime Minister in the future.
she should win her riding, but do not believe she can speak french. do not see her as PM. however if she can win the riding, and serve a few terms she would be important in the conservative party. and a cabinet minister if the conservatives form government.
she has not served in politics yet, and have to see how she handles question period. she has run a good campaign.
Harper the conservatives leader should have taken her ideas on policies.
Belinda Stronach is a fiscal conservative but on social issues is in the center. Harper is a social conservative, which makes it harder for a break through in Ontario and Quebec.
thanks
selkirk
she has not served in politics yet, and have to see how she handles question period. she has run a good campaign.
Harper the conservatives leader should have taken her ideas on policies.
Belinda Stronach is a fiscal conservative but on social issues is in the center. Harper is a social conservative, which makes it harder for a break through in Ontario and Quebec.
thanks
selkirk
My sentiments exactly. The guy just won't answer the questions. He knows exactly who is involved in the sponsorship scandal. This is BS - "We have an inquiry and I want to find out more than anyone"....where the hell has he been for the past 10 years?Skanoochies said:
Harper is really making me nervous too. They're starting to show their extreme right-wing colours. More and more I look at this guy and I see Brian Mulroney's face (minus the chin) and hear Brian Mulroney's voice
.1837 - I hope you win your bet - by a long shot! (Although the webcam show would be entertaining!!)
But I fear it's going to be close. I do see yesterday the provincial PQ leader seemed to have stuck his foot in his mouth a bit....it looked like Duceppe was doing a bit of damage control. But even he had to admit "of course I am a soverignist". Of course he is! The whole thing I see about Quebec from a distance is the BQ turns it into "Do you love Quebec more or Canada?". It's like they try to make Quebecers feel disloyal if they don't support the BQ, like they are traitors. And from what I can see it's a pretty effective tactic.I hope I am wrong about 60 seats for the Bloc. Really.
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IF by any bad luck i have to eat my short... Can i buy a G-String instead? It's smaller to eat i guess....:tongue :lol:
Can i buy a G-String instead? It's smaller to eat i guess....:tongue :lol:Bet on the Liberals worth a shot??
Bet on the Liberals worth a shot??
The Liberals are up to +120 at Olympic.
But this site predicts the Liberals winning over the Conservatives by about 10 seats (with 27 of the 308 too close to call in their opinion).
They've picked the winners riding-by-riding at about a 90% clip over the last few elections - federal, provincial, and even UK. Not bad at all!
Bet on the Liberals worth a shot??
The Liberals are up to +120 at Olympic.
But this site predicts the Liberals winning over the Conservatives by about 10 seats (with 27 of the 308 too close to call in their opinion).
They've picked the winners riding-by-riding at about a 90% clip over the last few elections - federal, provincial, and even UK. Not bad at all!
good site GM, thanks for the link, looks my region going Liberal and NDP. not much new there.
hope the predictions hold have put a wager at pinnacle liberals winning more than 100 seats. that probably means they win 99... LOL
thanks
selkirk
hope the predictions hold have put a wager at pinnacle liberals winning more than 100 seats. that probably means they win 99... LOL
thanks
selkirk
I'm playing Liberals +120 (max limit)
The last poll is reliable and another one here made with Toronto star give them the win by small margin. At +120 i like the odds!
The last poll is reliable and another one here made with Toronto star give them the win by small margin. At +120 i like the odds!
It's official, we're gonna have a liberal government but with minority seats and the bloc will get around 55 seats wich is good for us in Quebec!
Won both of my wagers for some $$$
I told you you won't see me eating my short on a web cam!!!!:tongue
Won both of my wagers for some $$$
I told you you won't see me eating my short on a web cam!!!!:tongue
