Few Solid Looks this week

TLankford

Donkey
Forum Member
Nov 24, 2005
2,001
18
38
41
Austin, TX
1-2 last week but the 1 was a huge 2-game parlay with bama/lsu and my biggest play of the year and the 2 losses were baby teasers that I shouldn't have placed to begin with. Should have stuck with my initial post of the Parlay and straight bet on Clemson but let my initial thoughts on Clemson get swayed by other people's opinions. Never again. Go with your gut

Overall 9-4 on the year with a substantial profit at this point. Looking at a few games for this week:

SMU +3 @ SMiss

SMU been one of my go-to teams all year because they don't get the respect of the public perspective due to them being SMU. They have a good balanced attack this year for June to work with. SMiss has a below average run defense that I think Line can exploit he is a bowling ball. SMiss has benefited a lot from turnovers in their "Big Games" and I think SMU should be able to take care of the ball McDermott doing a decent job of that with 10td 5int ratio.

FIU +135 @ ArkState

Wrong team favored here. Arky state has 13 turnovers on the year to FIUs 6. Should play a big factor here as one of FIUs only losses came from duke because of a costly sack fumble late in the 4th. I think FIU can and will take care of the ball and ArkSt has shown no ability to do this. I just think FIU has faced just as good of competition as a whole as ArkSt has and done much better vs. real opponents. FIU does a better job of stopping the run and I think ArkState will have a tough time stringing drives together and keeping up with scoring with FIU's offense. Hilton seems to be back up to full health and Kendrick Rhodes is playing well. Should be a good balanced attack with Hilton's always present big play threat looming.

WV -14.5 @ Cuse

Cuse is trash. They beat Wake on some flukey bullshit opening night of CFB on thursday and haven't done anything since. They have lost to the only other BCS schools they've played (17-38 USC, 16-19 vs. F'ing rutgers) and WV is coming off a BYE week and they are head and shoulders above the rest of the BEast this year. Cuse gives up a TON of passing yards on defense (320 ypg if u don't count rhode island). Meano Geno gonna light them the what up on national tv. If WV doesn't turn it over 5 times they win this game by 4TDs. Style points gonna come into play after seeing the 1st BCS ranking and WV being the 6th ranked 1-loss team. Gotta beat the shit out of BEast opponents since SOS is not in their favor


Leaning to:

Stanford -20. Is this years husky team that much better than years past with the loss of Locker? I haven't been watching the actual games just looking at stats each week. I feel like the lack of respect in the BCS polls will encourage Stanford to blow the doors off people if they have the ability.

Mizzou +7.5. LDB making this a 7* got me to take a hard look at this game and I like it. Mizzou looks to be back at full strength and can hang in a shootout vs. OSU. :toast:

GL. Input welcome but keep it classy Sandiego
 
Last edited:

Jord20

Sharp
Forum Member
Jun 27, 2002
46,111
7,815
113
Chicago, IL
Lank, sorry bro... I know I was against Clemson... and I felt good for 3 quarters. Oh well, When I saw you come off that play, I thought, "oh no, Tlank was going to get that win, and we swayed him off."

Love the forum to see people's opinions and get a feel on the games. It is a talking ground and way to feel sentiment for people who know what they are talking about to a great bigger extent than your joe public co-worker. I love seeing the "experts" take on local teams etc too.

But, I learned long ago, that you just have to go with what you think and know... unless that's not much :mj07: (which I'm sure there are a bunch of amateurs on here that should be blindly following probably).

Great luck this week
 

TLankford

Donkey
Forum Member
Nov 24, 2005
2,001
18
38
41
Austin, TX
agree. most of the time I am a follower, but not really blind just take respected guys on here that have been winning for years (since I've been keeping up for the last half decade) and then I look at the game and if I like it I'll ride along.

I will probably be betting on Auburn + as well just waiting to see if that one makes it up to 24. I see it being a 17ish point win by LSU with an outside shot of Auburn keeping it within single digits. Mason, Reed, Blake back healthy. Moseley looking a lot better than fucking trotter.

just to put it in perspective, LSU was as good or better in 2009 than they are this year IMO and AU was worse on both sides of the ball with Gene in his 1st year as HC and Chris Todd at QB. LSU beat us in all aspects of the game. final was 31-10. I see a similar score this year but AU being able to put up 14-17. This past week's performance vs. UF on offense was pathetic due to our best WR (blake) being out, Trotter still being the starter for a half, and Mason/Reed = 2 big play guys, being out.
 

mansamusa

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 16, 2009
33
0
0
Just a little heads up re your leans: UW @ Stanford
Huskies have scored 30+ pts in every game this season. UW defense not very good, but, hanging with the Cardinal is probably a big deal for Huskies since they lost 41-0 to them last yr. Sarkisian has UW program on the upswing. Huskies should be motivated to stay close to Stanford just like their bowl game v Nebraska last yr.
I think line has more to do w all the big favorites covering every week. Giving 3 tds to a team that avg more than 30 ppg!
 

capping-guru

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 3, 2011
8,888
26
0
Not sold on Stanford. But they are a great 2nd half team, just look at last weeks boxscore. UW will give Stanford a good go and 3 TD's is alot in this spot. Like CG said, Stanford has rival USC on deck too.

I like your SMU and FIU plays. GL
 

TLankford

Donkey
Forum Member
Nov 24, 2005
2,001
18
38
41
Austin, TX
Probably gonna lay off stanford just to minimize plays, which i've been trying to do all year.

am playing WV -13.5 buying the hook.
 

TLankford

Donkey
Forum Member
Nov 24, 2005
2,001
18
38
41
Austin, TX
Rough start on FIU that game was tough to watch.

Gonna add this one to the card because betting on shit teams on thursday night is always a good idea right? :shrug:

UCF 1st half -9.5

UAB is garbage. Only way they can cover this game in the first half is by a few turnovers. O'Leary is a good coach and will have the team up for a national tv game / conference game needing a win after a couple of bad losses. I could see a UAB backdoor cover for the whole game with the spread being at 16 but that's a small chance anyways I really think they lose by 30
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top