FIGURING OUT MNF

DerekNJND

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NFC East games tend to be low scoring affairs. Even the Giants demolition of the Skins a couple weeks ago was under 40. BUT if any 2 teams in the division can put up some points when they play, its the Eagles and the Cowboys. However, the higher scoring affair when these two meet is ALWAYS IN BIG D. The cowboys have only scored 17 points in their last two trips to philadelphia, including a 12-7 loss in Philly last December. Philly HAS still played great D at home this year too, and the Cowboys offense has struggled somewhat in its last few road games.

This game's total COULD go with the sides, Eagles win would be very low scoring, Dallas win would be high scoring. When Dallas has played well on the road this season, they have OUTSCORED opponents, not stiffened up with D. So all you cowboys backers should take the over too.

I'm afraid to bet the OVER because the bookies are giving Eagles 3 at home. If the eagles are gonna win, their defense will set the tone not the offense. This line is obviously a FISHY one. Cowboys have played well enough to be 7-1, after giving away a game at home against the skins and playing well enough to win before coughing up the lead last week in Seattle. On the other side, Eagles are 4-4 and lets face it, they are a blocked FG and two 2nd half miracle rallies away from being 1-7. Thats right, they easily couldve lost to the chargers, chiefs, and Raiders, not to mention that a few of their losses have been played while trailing most of the game by double digits.

What I'm trying to say is that it smells like a trap to me. A team could easily be 1-7 is favored against a team that could just as easily be 7-1. Basically the home field advantage makes the birds favorites tonight, and the bookies see this as a pick. Its a trap because the obvious play is Dallas +3. We all know in the NFL the obvious play is MOST OFTEN THE WRONG PLAY. For these reasons, I cant pick a total or side for tonight.

However, ONE stat does jump out at me. In Dallas last 4 trips to Philly, they have scored 7,10,13, and 18 points, goin backwards from 04. Tonight a prop bet is DALLAS TOTAL POINTS O/U 19. From what I just told you, the cowboys have averaged 12 over the last 4 years in philly. Heck, in the last 2 years, they havent gotten to 19 in both games COMBINED. I dont usually take prop bets but this one is GRAVY people. Then you can sit back and enjoy the game without crying when the Cowgirls lose. Eagles can still hang their hat on defense, especially when playin' at home. If you think the Eagles are going to give up 33 last meeting and then OVER 19 tonight, meaning over 50 points in ONE season to an NFC EAST team, you got another thing coming.
 

Dizzayton

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Eagles defense is not the same. They can't stop the pass or run that well.

Not say its a loser, but remember the Eagles had a hard ass defense last 4 years.
 

DerekNJND

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Dizzayton said:
Eagles defense is not the same. They can't stop the pass or run that well.

Not say its a loser, but remember the Eagles had a hard ass defense last 4 years.

Ponder this, KITKAT, that defense that is NOT THE SAME is allowing an average of 13 points per game at home, while like 28 points per game on the road. where are they playing tonight? Philly...make the connection.
 

DerekNJND

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Cowboys averaging 11.5 in their last two on the road period. This has nothing to do with the eagles defense or years past.
 

DerekNJND

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DerekNJND said:
Ponder this, KITKAT, that defense that is NOT THE SAME is allowing an average of 13 points per game at home, while like 28 points per game on the road. where are they playing tonight? Philly...make the connection.


Had this one capped perfectly. Had Cowboys UNDER 19 for the game, Eagles had the ball up 20-14 with 3 minutes left. BUT, this is the 4th straight football game where there has been a defensive TD against me. Its time for people to start fading me. Its nearly impossible to win if theres going to be a turnover going all the way back for a score for the other side in every game you bet. IMPOSSIBLE.
 

DerekNJND

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actually no, its quite easy. I will add 7 to the other teams score to compensate. Then dont make the bet unless I think I can withstand 7 free additional points. So UNDER 19 tonight should have been UNDER 12 knowing the way things are going for me. Wouldnt have taken that
 

Rcxslam

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dude...shake it off...get a good nights sleep, wake up tomm and forget about it...thats the only way you're gonna last if you wanna continue with this lifestyle...
 

DerekNJND

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Rcxslam said:
dude...shake it off...get a good nights sleep, wake up tomm and forget about it...thats the only way you're gonna last if you wanna continue with this lifestyle...

I SPECIFICALLY BET DALLAS' POINT TOTAL TONIGHT instead of the UNDER for the game b/c I thought defense could SET UP a score.

forget about it? how can you forget a defensive td beating you in FOUR STRAIGHT WAGERS?? please, if anyone has ever had that happen before, tell me about it. I only bet 25 bucks tonight, but I still think its pretty freakin unbelievable. I mean you cant cap games saying "that team has GREAT DEFENSE, maybe i shouldnt bet against them because they might add a defensive score". I guess its just a run of terrible luck, but its gotten to be a nightmare, starting with notre dame's Zibikowski's worthless INT TD return against Tennessee when they were up 13 with 2 minutes left. At least tonight it was meaningful?? something to move forward with..haha
 
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