Final 4

Smitty

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well, here we are. despite an ice cold streak a few weeks ago, this has been the most profitable college hoops season i can remember. normally in the tournament i do great the first round, then slowly decline to the final weekend, when i can't hit a game to save my life. after going 3-0 last weekend, i'd like to think i've turned that trend around, and i'm going to finish a season strong for once. with no further ado...

georgetown (-1.5) 2 units. absolutely love the hoyas here. if i didn't have several pools riding on them, this play would be for at least one more unit. i don't remember who it was with, but about a month ago i had a 'conversation' in this forum regarding georgetown and their chances to win the tournament. i felt then, as i do now... no doubt this team has the tools to win in all. they have inside scoring with hibbert. they have guys who can hit 3's. and in the middle of it all... jeff green. what a ballplayer. (quick side note... gotta take one jab at that jackass, billy packer. in the game against nc, packer kept saying green needed to shoot more. sadly, i think green heard him, and promptly proceded to force some shots, and missed them. the hoyas fell further behind. jeff green's game is not taking a lot of shots. when he settled back down and got his teammates involved again, the hoyas started their great comeback. amazingly enough, packer never admitted that... maybe he's an idiot, and he should shut up and let jeff green play basketball.) so the hoyas have everything you need to win the ncaa tournament.
now let's get to the buckeyes. as both of my loyal readers will tell you, i think this team is very overrated. they rely almost exclusively on the 3-point shot. how will all their shooters adapt to the dome? oden is NOT much of an offensive weapon, except on putbacks. he is, however, a very intimidating presence on defense. speaking of the buckeye's defense... there has been a LOT of talk all week about how ohio state may play a lot of zone. geez, THAT will really confuse georgetown. when i think 2-3 zone, the first two teams that come to mind are syracuse and uconn. oh, georgetown is in the same conference with those two teams. yes, i know 'cuse was the last team to beat the hoyas, but i'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the buckeyes won't run the zone QUITE as well as the orange. plus, the takeaway i had from that game was a lethargic georgetown team... not an inability to attack the zone.
wow, i think that's the longest write-up i've ever had for a game. GO HOYAS!!!

ucla (+3) 1 unit. much simpler reasoning here... i really don't think florida is playing championship-caliber basketball right now. for example, they were very sloppy while beating oregon... 18 turnovers? 28-43 (65%) from the FT line? they should have put the ducks away early in the second half, but they just kept letting them hang around. in fact, if not for lee humphrey shooting lights out, i'm not sure they win that game. UCLA is playing much better right now, arron afflalo will be the best player on the court, and with mata and aboya, the bruins have a little more interior defense than they had last year. i don't understand why all the 'experts' are acting like this would be a monumental upset.
 

x2man

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Great Write up Smitty.
Question, do you think UCLA, played well becuase they had home field advantage last week playing in San Jose? There is no doubt they are playing great ball, but I just can't pull the trigger
on them because of this reason.
 

Smitty

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x2man, excellent point that i had not thought of. a couple thoughts...

1) just a general answer - no. i really don't feel home court advantage necessarily helps a team play 'better'. you may hit a few more shots because you're used to shooting there (not applicable in this case, as it was not their home court, obviously). and you may play harder, fueled by the crowd. but it doesn't lead to playing better team basketball, which is what i feel the bruins are doing right now.

2) this play is 50% anti-florida, due to how they are playing now.

3) the bruins success is predicated by their defense. and while that d may not be spurred on by a home crowd tonight, it WILL be spurred on by revenge for last year's championship game.

bottom line is, you know ucla is going to play great defense. if florida turns the ball over and misses FT's, i expect the bruins to win a close game.
 

Smitty

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thanks, ronnie. sadly, i have learned... baseball is not my strong suit. other than a few horse races, i take the spring and summer off.
 
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