we're really all the way down to the final four again. damn, these seasons just fly by.
uconn (-5) 3 units. while michigan state was a nightmare matchup for louisville, that is not the case for uconn. still not an ideal matchup, but uconn can play the halfcourt game. for me, the biggest concern is suton. can he light it up again like he did in the first half against the cardinals? sure, he can, and that would spell trouble for uconn, because i'm assuming thabeet will be on suton, and when thabeet is away from the paint, uconn's defense is nowhere near as good. i don't know who else thabeet could guard. does anybody know if uconn has played much 2-3 zone this year? i know they have in the past, but it seems to me they've gone mostly man-to-man this year.
anyways, i have to believe suton will not continue to be the second coming of larry bird today.
one factor i really like looking at is michigan state's game at ford field earlier this year. sure, suton didn't play, but this was before raymar morgan got sick. he was 8/14 for 21 points that game against north carolina. now, the tarheels are not exactly known for their defense, but the rest of the spartans were awful that day. they hit 4/17 3 pointers and, other than morgan, made 15 out of 42 shots for 42 points. anyways, so i'll call the morgan for suton swap (yes, i know morgan's playing, but he's nowhere near the same player he has been in the past) a push. is there a chance michigan state has figured out how to shoot at ford field during practice this week? sure, but i gotta bet against it.
one more factor... michigan state's success is normally predicated on their rebounding. however, uconn is no slouch on the boards. i think that will erase an aspect of msu's game that is normally a huge advantage for them.
top to bottom, uconn is a MUCH better team than michigan state. and i'm discounting the home court advantage, because a) i like uconn's chances of taking the crowd out early and b) the impact of crowd noise seems to be abated in the big stadiums, as compared to the smaller arenas these teams normally play in.
i'm still torn over the unc/'nova game. the line looks like it's begging for villanova money. this is not a bad matchup for villanova. their guards can get into the lane, and that presents problems for carolina. so if this line is legit (and based on the # of people on carolina, i'm starting to think it is), i'm leaning towards villanova. however, for now...
unc/nova over (159) 1 unit. this is probably a 'square' play, but i like the chances for both teams to score a lot of points here. plus, both teams get to the line a lot and both can hit their free throws.
uconn (-5) 3 units. while michigan state was a nightmare matchup for louisville, that is not the case for uconn. still not an ideal matchup, but uconn can play the halfcourt game. for me, the biggest concern is suton. can he light it up again like he did in the first half against the cardinals? sure, he can, and that would spell trouble for uconn, because i'm assuming thabeet will be on suton, and when thabeet is away from the paint, uconn's defense is nowhere near as good. i don't know who else thabeet could guard. does anybody know if uconn has played much 2-3 zone this year? i know they have in the past, but it seems to me they've gone mostly man-to-man this year.
anyways, i have to believe suton will not continue to be the second coming of larry bird today.
one factor i really like looking at is michigan state's game at ford field earlier this year. sure, suton didn't play, but this was before raymar morgan got sick. he was 8/14 for 21 points that game against north carolina. now, the tarheels are not exactly known for their defense, but the rest of the spartans were awful that day. they hit 4/17 3 pointers and, other than morgan, made 15 out of 42 shots for 42 points. anyways, so i'll call the morgan for suton swap (yes, i know morgan's playing, but he's nowhere near the same player he has been in the past) a push. is there a chance michigan state has figured out how to shoot at ford field during practice this week? sure, but i gotta bet against it.
one more factor... michigan state's success is normally predicated on their rebounding. however, uconn is no slouch on the boards. i think that will erase an aspect of msu's game that is normally a huge advantage for them.
top to bottom, uconn is a MUCH better team than michigan state. and i'm discounting the home court advantage, because a) i like uconn's chances of taking the crowd out early and b) the impact of crowd noise seems to be abated in the big stadiums, as compared to the smaller arenas these teams normally play in.
i'm still torn over the unc/'nova game. the line looks like it's begging for villanova money. this is not a bad matchup for villanova. their guards can get into the lane, and that presents problems for carolina. so if this line is legit (and based on the # of people on carolina, i'm starting to think it is), i'm leaning towards villanova. however, for now...
unc/nova over (159) 1 unit. this is probably a 'square' play, but i like the chances for both teams to score a lot of points here. plus, both teams get to the line a lot and both can hit their free throws.
