FINAL 4

[Jord20]

Guys...

I don't care what just happened. Uconn road to the 4 was a joke - and that was just a lucky win. This team isn't even top 10.

I am HAMMERING Illinois hard... sure, we can choke. We can shoot bad. We can mess up the moment. Hurley can (will) outcoach Underwood, but I believe Illinois wins this legit like over 70% of the time, finding extreme value here.

Illini huge...

Will be annoying to lay a big number in the final, but I think Michigan will beat Uconn by 20 no problem if we get there...

 

[Slumdog]

Hurley might be banned from Saturday’s game. He was already fined 100 k for getting in refs face. I hope he is. Pos

I’m pounding illy just bc of Hurley 🤢

 

[Slumdog]

Naaaa. That was fake news. But it shouldn’t be ! Fk Hurley.

 

[Bombs]

Illinois road to final 4: Penn, VCU, broke Houston, Iowa

Uconn road to final 4: Furman, UCLA, Michigan St, Duke

Illinois road more of a joke. Not much between these teams except Underwood.

Hoping for Michigan as I have large future there but not as confident as you are in them. I'm weighing hedge options like a pansy.

 

[Jord20]

Illinois road to final 4: Penn, VCU, broke Houston, Iowa

Uconn road to final 4: Furman, UCLA, Michigan St, Duke

Illinois road more of a joke. Not much between these teams except Underwood.

Hoping for Michigan as I have large future there but not as confident as you are in them. I'm weighing hedge options like a pansy.

I knew you'd be here for that - I get that Illinois road was 'easy' too. Just an add on to the fact that UCONN wasn't, and still isn't good. 3 doormats, and got destroyed by a team who dominated them, then absolutely gagged. Illinois killed every team in their way.

I'm already calling people about how to get more down. I'm more confident in Michigan covering 7 vs UConn than 1 vs Zona, yeah

 

[Jord20]

I knew you'd be here for that - I get that Illinois road was 'easy' too. Just an add on to the fact that UCONN wasn't, and still isn't good. 3 doormats, and got destroyed by a team who dominated them, then absolutely gagged. Illinois killed every team in their way.

I'm already calling people about how to get more down. I'm more confident in Michigan covering 7 vs UConn than 1 vs Zona, yeah

And Houston at Houston was the hardest 3 seed game. Uconn got the worst 3.

 

[Bombs]

Illinois didnt kill Iowa. Didn't look great there Iowa just ran out of gas and didn't hit any jumpers down the stretch. The game was very tight the whole way. To me they just looked like the same thing as all year, but just got teams they could beat and equally gag prone Houston who did their annual can't make anything performance.

Do I think Illinois is terrible, no, but Uconn also isn't terrible. It's the second biggest coaching mismatch possible, but with better players than last (referring to Iowa) game.

At this point there can be counter arguments to everything. I would argue Illinois is a few weeks from losing to Wisconsin in Big10T and losing 4 of their last 8 reg season games including full noncompetitive home dismantling against Michigan and losing to the shitty Michigan St. team (granted on road in OT) that Uconn just beat.

From a matchups standpoint Uconn does have athletic defenders to run at Wagler. They are going to get a ton of open shots because Illinois has Underwood and Hurley will out scheme him big time. The teams also already played this year and Uconn wired them. I'm not confident things are really that much different at this point. Illinois offense looked super stagnant against Iowa. They just crushed them on the glass and with overall talent advantage. Think they need foul trouble on Reed (def possible) for similar success. If not you're looking at Underwood to get them good looks can't bank on that.

Final point for me this is 3.5 points short KenPom at a time of year when most games pretty flat with it. I think there are legitimate reasons for that deviation and have used it to my advantage in past.

 

[ezpickin]

UConn shot awful from 3 against Duke, they won't shoot it that bad against Illini

 

[Jord20]

Illinois didnt kill Iowa. Didn't look great there Iowa just ran out of gas and didn't hit any jumpers down the stretch. The game was very tight the whole way. To me they just looked like the same thing as all year, but just got teams they could beat and equally gag prone Houston who did their annual can't make anything performance.

Do I think Illinois is terrible, no, but Uconn also isn't terrible. It's the second biggest coaching mismatch possible, but with better players than last (referring to Iowa) game.

At this point there can be counter arguments to everything. I would argue Illinois is a few weeks from losing to Wisconsin in Big10T and losing 4 of their last 8 reg season games including full noncompetitive home dismantling against Michigan and losing to the shitty Michigan St. team (granted on road in OT) that Uconn just beat.

From a matchups standpoint Uconn does have athletic defenders to run at Wagler. They are going to get a ton of open shots because Illinois has Underwood and Hurley will out scheme him big time. The teams also already played this year and Uconn wired them. I'm not confident things are really that much different at this point. Illinois offense looked super stagnant against Iowa. They just crushed them on the glass and with overall talent advantage. Think they need foul trouble on Reed (def possible) for similar success. If not you're looking at Underwood to get them good looks can't bank on that.

Final point for me this is 3.5 points short KenPom at a time of year when most games pretty flat with it. I think there are legitimate reasons for that deviation and have used it to my advantage in past.

Things ARE MUCH DIFFERENT than in that game... All-American Wagler wasn't even starting at that point... the rotation is completely different... and that was a new team with a lot of new faces... Illinois efficiency has jumped dramatically since that game

 

[Bombs]

Things ARE MUCH DIFFERENT than in that game... All-American Wagler wasn't even starting at that point... the rotation is completely different... and that was a new team with a lot of new faces... Illinois efficiency has jumped dramatically since that game

I get that - but you’ve still got the coaching mismatch which was my point there not that the teams are the same. They’ve met before as well also a complete massacre. I don’t think underwood’s marginal talent advantage is enough to make up for his massive brain disadvantage.

You’re the highest person I know on Illinois. Might be right but I never get that confident in any team. I think this is as high of a valuation as they can get and are probably more like the team we saw all season.

 

[rocky mountain]

I get that - but you’ve still got the coaching mismatch which was my point there not that the teams are the same. They’ve met before as well also a complete massacre. I don’t think underwood’s marginal talent advantage is enough to make up for his massive brain disadvantage.

You’re the highest person I know on Illinois. Might be right but I never get that confident in any team. I think this is as high of a valuation as they can get and are probably more like the team we saw all season.

Great back n forth analysis from both of you!

 

[boomer1]

Great back n forth analysis from both of you!

Yeah I’ve swapped sides two or theee times reading this thread Rocky 😂

 

[ripken8]

Yeah I’ve swapped sides two or theee times reading this thread Rocky 😂

that’s not funny Boomer, so have I 🙄. I think I’m betting Illinois tho, even tho it dropped from -2 1/2 to - 1 1/2…

 

[Smitty]

One note on Illinois, and it may have no bearing on this game.... and it's based on the one Illinois game I saw during the regular season... they STRUGGLE against a press. All those big guys are not ball handlers. I don't know if Hurley presses much, or if he's inclined to do it for long stretches when the opponent has trouble against it. But if he's as smart as people think he is, he'll press the shit out of the Illini.

 

[Bombs]

Honestly, although I love to play devil's advocate, this one is real tough. Illinois should have a huge crowd advantage. I dont think there is much between these teams and I've played up the coaching edge, but there are lots of ways Uconn can go south including Reed foul trouble or wonky shooting. Should be a great couple games super final 4.

 

[Destructor D]

One note on Illinois, and it may have no bearing on this game.... and it's based on the one Illinois game I saw during the regular season... they STRUGGLE against a press. All those big guys are not ball handlers. I don't know if Hurley presses much, or if he's inclined to do it for long stretches when the opponent has trouble against it. But if he's as smart as people think he is, he'll press the shit out of the Illini.

Outside of Wagler, not many ball handlers is correct

 

[rocky mountain]

6 sites concluded:
For today's Final Four matchup on April 4, 2026, Dan Hurley is expected to prioritize heavy ball pressure rather than a traditional full-court press to disrupt Illinois' offense.While Hurley’s defensive identity is built on high intensity, his strategy typically focuses on making opponents "uncomfortable" through physical, half-court resistance rather than extended pressing.UConn's Defensive Strategy vs. IllinoisTargeting the Perimeter: UConn's Silas Demary is expected to pick up Illinois star Keaton Wagler near half-court, using physicality to force mistakes early in the shot clock.Drop Coverage: The Huskies primarily use "drop coverage" with big man Tarris Reed Jr. to protect the rim, relying on his 2.1 blocks per game to neutralize interior scoring.Switching: UConn frequently switches defensive assignments on screens (positions 1 through 4) to maintain constant pressure and prevent open looks for Illinois’ shooters like Andrej Stojakovic.Avoiding the Zone: Hurley rarely utilizes zone defense, preferring a "man-to-man" approach that emphasizes individual accountability and toughness.

 

[Jord20]

Illinois -125 20x
Fh -1 7x

 

[Slumdog]

How bout Oklahoma for a Billy ??

 

[Smitty]

6 sites concluded:
For today's Final Four matchup on April 4, 2026, Dan Hurley is expected to prioritize heavy ball pressure rather than a traditional full-court press to disrupt Illinois' offense.While Hurley’s defensive identity is built on high intensity, his strategy typically focuses on making opponents "uncomfortable" through physical, half-court resistance rather than extended pressing.UConn's Defensive Strategy vs. IllinoisTargeting the Perimeter: UConn's Silas Demary is expected to pick up Illinois star Keaton Wagler near half-court, using physicality to force mistakes early in the shot clock.Drop Coverage: The Huskies primarily use "drop coverage" with big man Tarris Reed Jr. to protect the rim, relying on his 2.1 blocks per game to neutralize interior scoring.Switching: UConn frequently switches defensive assignments on screens (positions 1 through 4) to maintain constant pressure and prevent open looks for Illinois’ shooters like Andrej Stojakovic.Avoiding the Zone: Hurley rarely utilizes zone defense, preferring a "man-to-man" approach that emphasizes individual accountability and toughness.

We'll see if that holds true today. I still think UConn's best chance is to press full court.

And playing man-to-man, with so many Illini big men capable of shooting, that draws Reed out onto the perimeter. Where A) he's not protecting the rim and B) he's going to be more likely to pick up fouls.

On the flip side, Illinois shoots a ton of 3s. Historically, that hasn't been ideal when playing in a huge football stadium.

Interesting matchup.