Final Four

Status
Not open for further replies.
W

Wise and Wiser

Here Until 5K
Forum Member
Jan 17, 2003
4,666
16
38
On The Other Side
NCAAB Record: [91-62] +25,900
NBA Record: [32-25] +3,150
Win % Basketball System Plays: .586
NCAA Tourney Straight Bets: [28-12-2] +14,800
NCAA Tourney ML Bets: [45-15]
Profit/Loss: +29,050

LSU -140
Risking $1,400 to win $1,000
 
Last edited:
W

Wise and Wiser

Here Until 5K
Forum Member
Jan 17, 2003
4,666
16
38
On The Other Side
LSU -140
LSU -2 (-115)

Bruce, I like both, but why not spend the extra $25 to take the spread out of the equation? I believe LSU will win this game by at least 7 points, but just in case I'm wrong, I want to make sure I get paid!
 
D

Destructor D

Destructor
Forum Member
Dec 6, 2005
8,617
111
63
Kansas City, MO
Good Luck Buddy. I haven't decided whether I should try the ML or lay the 2 points. Price is a little steep IMO @ -140 as LSU opened as a 1-point favorite at Mandalay Bay on Sunday.
 
nole47

nole47

Registered User
Forum Member
May 14, 2001
637
1
0
55
florida
b at MANADALAY manana. took fla 1h -3. wise whatta think of that. seems like gmu always behind in the tourney games. then i can root for gmu in the 2nd half
 
J

Jayhawk_Thor

Rock Chalk
Forum Member
Dec 26, 2004
1,581
12
0
Lawrence, KS
Wise....

I don't agree with the play of the money line... Assuming you bet to win $1,000 on this game, you are going to win $250 less by taking the moneyline...

Why risk 25% of your potential winnings (1,400/1,000) just to avoid a measly two points?

$250 here, $250 there really adds up in the long run... And the only way you can possibly kick yourself is if LSU wins by a point (2 points is of course a push)... The odds of which, I imagine you will agree, are much, much less than 25%, which is the number you are giving away... does this make sense? So your "payment" is much higher than the chance it has over making a difference...

Anyhow, just something to think about. I have made it a practice to "sell" points to always get the vig over +100, instead of buying points (or playing moneylines) where I am going to have to give 10% or more back to the book... It has been very profitable...

Anyhow, just thought I'd throw that out there... Keep up the good work, man...
 
W

Wise and Wiser

Here Until 5K
Forum Member
Jan 17, 2003
4,666
16
38
On The Other Side
Thor,

Villanova -2.5 vs. Boston College this past weekend. Villanova won by one. I'm getting paid on this game! Thanks for the advice though. Good luck to you.
 
H

HoopsGuru

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 6, 2004
1,478
5
0
i don't think he's looking at it as a game by game example, but a long term proposition. if you take a team that's -2 and take the ml at -140 at least 9 times out of 10 that they win the game it's not going to be by a point or 2. i understand how it sucks when you lay the 2 and they win by a point or 2 though but that's why they call it gambling and not simple.
 
gjn23

gjn23

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 20, 2002
9,319
45
48
54
So. Cal
Wise and Wiser said:
Thor,

Villanova -2.5 vs. Boston College this past weekend. Villanova won by one. I'm getting paid on this game! Thanks for the advice though. Good luck to you.
Click to expand...


villanova -2 vs fla.......money-line nova and you lost 140 instead of 110......

texas -3 vs lsu
memphis -2 vs ucla
odu -1.5 vs mich
etc
etc
etc

get's back into the value of buying points or not.....tough call when laying 1 to 2 points......is it worth it or not to ml?

i say no......in the long run it's not very profitable.....in a one game scenario where you win, you feel like a genious.
 
J

Jayhawk_Thor

Rock Chalk
Forum Member
Dec 26, 2004
1,581
12
0
Lawrence, KS
HoopsGuru said:
i don't think he's looking at it as a game by game example, but a long term proposition. if you take a team that's -2 and take the ml at -140 at least 9 times out of 10 that they win the game it's not going to be by a point or 2. i understand how it sucks when you lay the 2 and they win by a point or 2 though but that's why they call it gambling and not simple.
Click to expand...

That is exactly it...

This is something where you take it as 100 games, not one game.

I am not telling you how to bet at all... just thought I would throw it out there...

The simple math for this game is that you are risking $250 more (1,400 instead of 1,150) to gain two points... To risk 25% of the winning wager for two points has a very low expected outcome over the long run...

Just something to think about...
 
gjn23

gjn23

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 20, 2002
9,319
45
48
54
So. Cal
dont educate the sheep, they might actually start to think for themselves
 
W

Wise and Wiser

Here Until 5K
Forum Member
Jan 17, 2003
4,666
16
38
On The Other Side
Guru and Thor,

You guys are correct, it is not wise to make a habit out of playing the money line when the spread is two points or less. I rarely do this, but like I said before, I'm not taking any chances on this game. I'm getting paid, period! Good luck fellas.

gjn, we know you like UCLA +2 on Saturday. Who are you kidding?
 
J

Jayhawk_Thor

Rock Chalk
Forum Member
Dec 26, 2004
1,581
12
0
Lawrence, KS
Wise and Wiser said:
Guru and Thor,

You guys are correct, it is not wise to make a habit out of playing the money line when the spread is two points or less. I rarely do this, but like I said before, I'm not taking any chances on this game. I'm getting paid, period! Good luck fellas.

gjn, we know you like UCLA +2 on Saturday. Who are you kidding?
Click to expand...

Cool...

And just for the record, I will be on LSU before all is said and done.

Good luck, my friend.
 
E

edludes

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 25, 2001
3,592
38
0
alaska
The least frequent margin of victory amongst the numbers 1-9 is one.Therefore,if you feel sure your team will win,laying 2 will win or push a very high percentage of the time.Sure wish Villanova/BC had followed suit.
 
gjn23

gjn23

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 20, 2002
9,319
45
48
54
So. Cal
Wise and Wiser said:
Guru and Thor,

You guys are correct, it is not wise to make a habit out of playing the money line when the spread is two points or less. I rarely do this, but like I said before, I'm not taking any chances on this game. I'm getting paid, period! Good luck fellas.

gjn, we know you like UCLA +2 on Saturday. Who are you kidding?
Click to expand...

yes i will....think they are the better team and play more consistant than lsu.......

think ucla's defense totally frustrates lsu and ucla wins a low scoring, ugly, tight game 64-59
 
A

AM2kidz

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 9, 2000
480
0
0
Brandon FL
Hey Wise, If it aint broke don't fix it... You've had a great run so far in the tourney... You've definitely helped my capping alot easier when we agreed on alot of the same games... I love LSU to win this game and I love Fla to win theirs also. I took LSU on the Money Line and I took LSU -2... I also took FLA on the money line but haven't pulled the trigger on the -6 yet.... I also Parlayed both Money Lines... Thanks so much Wise for a great run and lets end the tourney with a bang... Good luck to all am2kidz
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Bet on MyBookie
Top