Final Four

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DR STRANGELOVE

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DICK VITALE
Kansas over Marquette: I think Kansas' experience will be the key factor in this game. It's a lot like Maryland last year -- the Terrapins made the Final Four the year before and they lost, then came back to cut down the nets last year. Kansas has the same kind of experience with Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison. That experience will catapult the Jayhawks to the finals.
Texas over Syracuse: T.J. Ford will be able to break down the 2-3 zone and lead Texas to a win. He's the Roy Jones Jr. of college basketball -- pound-for-pound the best player in the country. And he'll show it on this stage.



DIGGER PHELPS
Kansas over Marquette: The Jayhawks are where Maryland was a year ago -- on the verge of winning a national championship. With Roy Williams in his fourth Final Four, this team is ready to win. They just have that kind of mindset right now.
Syracuse over Texas: The is the fourth game Syracuse has played against a Big 12 team. None of them have figured out how to beat it. It's the kind of thing that can keep teams who are unfamiliar with it off their game for 40 minutes. So edge to Syracuse, because of the zone.



ANDY KATZ
Kansas over Marquette: Senior leadership makes the difference here. Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison will be there when they need to be -- and Roy Williams gets his chance at a national title because of it.
Texas over Syracuse: T.J. Ford is the best point guard in the country to break down the Syracuse 2-3 zone. Because of that, Texas will be able to keep Syracuse off-balance and win.



JAY BILAS
Kansas over Marquette: Kansas wins simply because of Kansas' two big-time stars in Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison. But it won't be easy. Kansas has a huge match-up problem with Dwyane Wade, and Marquette is playing the best of any of the Final Four teams entering play Saturday. But in the end, it's Kansas.
Texas over Syracuse: Texas is such a good offensive rebounding team, and that will make the difference. They'll take better shots against the 2-3 zone than anybody else has, and they'll beat the zone down the floor on occasion. If they can do that, and clean up the glass, they'll be too much for Syracuse.



BRAD DAUGHERTY
Kansas over Marquette: Kansas just has too much experience. This is a team that has really playing well and everyone has embraced their roles. The Jayhawks' transition game is just awesome and Marquette has to be prepared to get back in a hurry, then get out on Kirk Hinrich and Keith Langford when they are behind the 3-point arc.
Texas over Syracuse: Texas can get through the 2-3 zone and they have depth. Even though T.J. Ford has struggled shooting the ball, he's more apt to get into the middle of the Syracuse zone and then kick the ball out to Texas' shooters. And once Brian Boddicker hits a couple of 3s, that will just give Ford more confidence to take some shots and he'll make more than a few.




JOE LUNARDI
Kansas over Marquette: Marquette is an underrated offensive team, but the Golden Eagles are up against a team they probably can't outscore. If Marquette is going to pull this upset, it will need to capitalize on its 3-point shooting. KU has the edge pretty much everywhere else, with the possible exception of free throw shooting in a game that will be close, but not that close.
Texas over Syracuse: Syracuse has played its best basketball against the best teams on its schedule and its 2-3 zone defense has not been overcome by 3-point shooting as much as one would expect. Texas point guard T.J. Ford is going to have to be at his national Player of the Year level for the favored Longhorns to solve the Orangemen. I think he will, but not without a fight.
 
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Kansas on offense



Nick Collison's effectiveness against Marquette's physical front line will be crucial to KU's success.
The key to any Kansas attack is the fast break, as evidenced by the Jayhawks' 82.5 points a game. As a great defensive rebounding team, Kansas is able to get the ball from defense to offense as quickly as anyone in the country. The first thing the Jayhawks must do is establish an advantage on the boards against a physical Marquette team.

Kirk Hinrich can play the point in the break or fill the lanes with Keith Langford when Aaron Miles pushes it. Either way, getting Hinrich going will be important for the Jayhawks. Another thing to watch is how well Langford finishes on the break. During the season, he was as effective on the wing in transition as anyone in the country.

Nick Collison will draw heavy attention inside as Marquette will probably double team among the country's best low-post threats. Collison, however, has seen enough double teams to have a good feel for kicking the ball back out to Hinrich or Keith Langford. But, while Hinrich shoots over 40 percent from 3-point range, both Miles and Langford shoot under 30 percent. Look for both to "think drive" on the pass out of the post and attack the defense.

Collison needs to make quick moves before Marquette is able to double him. He can also loosen up the defense by occasionally stepping outside and shooting the jumper. In the end, though, he needs to aggressively attack Marquette's front line and try to create foul trouble for Robert Jackson and Scott Merritt.

The pattern so far for Kansas in the NCAA Tournament is that Hinrich has had big games when teams have keyed on Collison. It is important for him, in this "two-game season" to stay aggressive and look for his shot. By attacking the basket, he will create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

Marquette on defense
The very first thing the Golden Eagles must do against Kansas is GET BACK on defense. The Jayhawks get out in transition as quickly on the break as anyone in America. Kansas' firs outlet pass can, often, be to half court. The proper balance of getting back on defense, but also rebounding, will be tricky because the Golden Eagles crash the offensive boards so hard.

In the half court, it is imperative to contain Collison, who is a horse inside. I would expect Tom Crean to double team off Aaron Miles or Jeff Graves and force those two players to beat Marquette -- especially with the jump shot. They key is to limit the amount of times Collison touches it. If Marquette elects to front him, there must be great pressure on the post feeder.

Hinrich must be contained in transition and he can get no open looks in the half court because he shoots 40 percent from the 3-point line. Todd Townsend is long enough to contest his outside shoots, but must also keep him out of the lane. Langford is Kansas' X factor. He runs hard in transition and smells the basket. In the half court, he is a slasher, and if Dwyane Wade starts on him, he cannot get in foul trouble because Langford attacks the basket.

Finally, Marquette has done a great job all year of changing its defenses, playing 3-2 zone a couple of different ways to compliment their man-to-man. The Golden Eagles will do this to change the tempo of the game and keep the Jayhaks off balance.





When Marquette has the ball
Marquette on offense



Dwyane Wade's triple double against Kansas is a testament to his unselfish style.
Marquette is a set-play team with about 100 different looks, so you can bet they will have some new "wrinkles" for this game. Crean has favorite plays to get each starter going early and to probe for defensive weaknesses.

First of all, look for some Wade isolations to allow him to create opportunities for himself and for his teammates. Remember, he was responsible for 12 straight baskets against Kentucky by scoring or passing. Jackson and Steve Novak really can benefit from Wade's ability to create plays.

Because of the Jayhawks' lack of depth inside, I would try to establish Jackson early again. He was a one-man wrecking crew in the first half against Kentucky. If he can get Collison in foul trouble, it bodes well for the Golden Eagles. And, Scott Merritt's mobility could also cause some problems.

Travis Diener has had a great assist/turnover ratio in this tournament and has been particularly effective getting the ball out in transition to Wade in the open court. And, the freshman, Steve Novak, who is shooting 53 percent from the 3-point line, will spot up off the break, stretching defenses and opening up opportunities for post ups and drives. And, if Marquette sees any Kansas "point zone" with the 1-3-1 look you can bet Novak will be on the floor, looking for openings.

Marquette is also effective at scoring on special situations, such as inbounds plays and "after time out" situations. This will be a well-prepared team that has scored on two great defenses in Pittsburgh and Kentucky.

Kansas on defense
Kansas is perennially one of the country's best defensive teams, but that is frequently overshadowed by its explosive offensive. The Jayhawks rebound well, play physically, pressure the ball hard and play team defense.

KU's defense against the Golden Eagles starts inside. Jeff Graves' size can neutralize Jackson, but it is crucial that he and Collison don't get into foul trouble, because inside depth is a problem for the Jayhawks. Putting pressure on Diener and Townsend is crucial because Marquette does a great job of feeding the post. Miles and Hinrich will try to smother any easy post passes and force the ball farther away from the basket.

Defending Wade will obviously be the key to containing Marquette. He has the ability to create his own shot and make scoring plays for Merritt, Diener and Novak. While he made a pair of 3-pointers against Kentucky, I would want to control his drives to the lane and make sure that he is guarded by the entire team -- not just with one guy.

Whether because of foul trouble or to change the tempo of the game, look for Kansas to employ some of its "point zone" -- a 1-3-1 match-up zone. They will stay with it as long as it is effective. An obvious key, if they play zone, is to always locate Novak, who has shot an incredible 35 percent behind the arc this year.
 
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Syracuse on offense
Texas will play mostly man-to-man defense, so this semifinal could come down to Syracuse exploiting matchups. And that starts with any team's matchup "nightmare" -- freshman sensation Carmelo Anthony. Welcome to Royal Ivey's nightmare.


Look for Carmelo Anthony to post up down low for Syracuse.
At 6-foot-8, 220 pounds, Anthony will try to post up the Longhorns 6-4 wing, who'll likely draw the early assignment to guard Anthony. Remember, Anthony averages 10 rebounds a game and gets to the foul line an average of seven times. But Ivey won't be alone all night. Look for Texas to double team Anthony.

Anthony, however, is a good enough passer to exploit the "4 on 3" situation it will create for the 'Cuse. And, on the perimeter, he is big enough to elevate over smaller defenders and get his shot off. The only "big" defender who could possibly guard Anthony is James Thomas, and Anthony will quickly take James outside his comfort zone as a defender by drifting outside the paint to shoot the jumper, or drive by him to the basket.

As good as Anthony is, Syracuse isn't a one-man team. The next guy I'd expect Jim Boeheim to try to establish as a factor on the offensive end is Hakim Warrick, who is one of the most improved players in the country. He has the quickness around the basket to create foul trouble for the 'Horns and eliminate some of their depth inside. In addition, his quickness will help him as a relentless offensive rebounder.

Benifiting the most from Texas' strong emphasis on the Syracuse inside game would be Gerry McNamara and Kueth Duany. Both can shoot the long-range jumper. The more effective Syracuse is at establishing an inside game, the more likely Texas must help inside. This will open up McNamara's game not only from behind the 3-point arc, but also his ability to can put it on the floor and create shots for other Orangemen.

Fiinally, if the Orangemen can rebound defensively against a very good rebounding Texas team, it will open up fast-break opportunities. If Syracuse can get out and run, it should be able to reach its average of almost 80 points a game.

Texas on defense
Guarding Syracuse means guarding, maybe, the most versitile offense player in the country in Anthony. He can take over a game both inside and out. The key, therefore, is to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Texas must deny him easy passes and double-team him whenever possible. The Longhorns must also keep pressure on freshmen point guards McNamara and Billy Edelin when they try to the ball to Anthony.


Royal Ivey will have his work cut out for him guarding Carmelo Anthony.
With Ivey assigned to Anthony, it'll come as no surprise when Syracuse works to post up Anthony early in the game. It's up to the other Longhorns guarding the "other" big men Craig Forth or Duany to double down on Anthony to give Ivey help. It's a dangerous double, however, because Anthony is unselfish and will pass the ball, forcing Texas to rotate back to their men quickly.

On the the perimeter, I would not let Anthony "catch-and-shoot" it. He is an excellent shooter when he is in a rhythm and has a terrific "pull-up game" in the 15-foot range. When he does put it on the floor, Texas must make him go to the baseline and "fill in" with plenty of help on the drive to cover the basket area.

Containing Anthony is the primary goal, but the defense doesn't stop with guarding one guy. Texas can't give McNamara too many open looks at the basket. He is an excellent shooter who can also create reasonably well off the dribble. He is the one guy I wouldn't leave to help off on any drives.

Warrick is as good an offensive rebounder as there is in college basketball, so he must be blocked out on every shot. It's not necessary to double him in the post early in the game, but I would be very aware of his ability to score down low. Warrick has very quick moves and likes to spin off the defender to the basket. If he starts to hurt Texas, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few late double-teams like those Texas used early against Anthony in the post.

But, it all comes back to Anthony. He is still the key to the Orange offense because he is big enough to post up the 'Horns wing players and too quick for their inside players. It's up to Texas to force someone else to beat them, but at the same time understanding Syracuse isn't a one-dimensional team.





When Texas has the ball
Texas on offense
As someone who has had to attack the Orangemen's 2-3 zone, trust this: it is a daunting task. Texas, however, has a player who could make the task a little easier -- Ford.


T.J. Ford will need to drive and keep the ball moving against Syracuse's 2-3 zone.
The easiest way to score against a zone is to beat it down court. Using Ford's ability in the open court to get easy baskets before Syracuse can get back to its zone will be crucial to the Longhorns' success. Texas will also count on Ford's quickness to attack the top of the zone with dribble penetration, forcing Duany and McNamara to contain him. This will create, with quick ball movement, a "4-on-3" advantage, temporarily, to get some open looks for Mouton, Ivey, and Harris.

Texas must also set screens at the top of the zone to create confusion as to who will be responsible for Ford. This gives him a different way to penetrate into the lane from the top. Also, I would look for Ford to get the ball to Thomas and Buckman in the middle of the zone on "flash cuts" from behind the zone, where they can catch it, draw defenders, and kick it back out to the 'Horns shooters. Keep in mind, Auburn put an athletic Marquis Daniels in the middle to catch and ctreate, and it nearly got the Tigers past the 'Cuse in the Sweet 16.

The Longhorns will also use the "short corners" behind the zone, along the baseline, as a place to score or to look to pass to the opposite wing to "stretch the zone." This must be quickly, because Syracuse will trap this area of the zone. But, Texas has the luxury of popping out the 6-9 Boddicker, an outstanding shooter, to create four perimeter players vs. the zone. Because he is such a threat, the zone must expand to cover everyone and this will open up more penetrating opportunities for Ford.

No matter how it attacks the zone, Texsas must take care of ther ball, be crisp with its passing, and make the zone move side to side. The ball always moves faster via the pass than the defender can move. Good offensive rebounding is usually effective vs. a zone because the responsibility for blocking out isn't as defined as it is in man-to-man defense. But, while Texas is a relentless offensive rebounding team, the 'Cuse is accustomed to blocking out well in this defense.

Finally, as simple as it sounds, the 'Horns must take good, open shots and -- this is "genius stuff" -- make them! Syracuse holds teams to 30 percent from the 3-point arc because the zone forces teams into hurried, contested shots.

Syracuse on defense
The biggest coaching question at this year's Final Four is: How will Texas solve Syracuse's 2-3 zone?


Kueth Duany will need to score and defend for Syracuse.
Because the Orangemen play the 2-3 zone all season as their "base" defense, they are very, very good at it. It also helps that Jim Boeheim has a group of big, rangy guards and mobile forwards, who cover a lot of space in the half-court defense. But, the biggest concern for Syracuse is to, first, get back in transition to set up its zone up against T.J. Ford, possibly the country's quickest point guard.

Texas' ability to get down the court before the 2-3 zone is set is crucial because teams that push the ball quicker that the Orange can get back on defense don't need a zone offense if they are consistently scoring quick transition baskets.

For this reason, Ford presents a major problem for the zone -- in transition and in the half court. Ford can get into the heart of any defense and break it down with his extraordinary ball-handling ability. Syracuse will commit to keeping him out of the lane with McNamara and Duany. This commitment to stopping Ford puts pressure on the 'Cuse forwards, who must get out to the Texas shooters and contest shots so that Ivey, Brandon Mouton and Sydmill Harris don't get open looks.

Syracuse will also have to contend with a weapon they normally don't see from an opponent's big men -- Brian Boddicker's ability to shoot the 3-point shot. So, awareness of where he is will be crucial.

Finally, rebounding out of its zone will be important because the Longhorns average 16 offensive rebounds a game and turn many of those into scoring opportunities for James Thomas, Brad Buckman, and Jason Klotz.
 
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NEW ORLEANS -- If the leaning, last-minute bankshot against Pittsburgh didn't convince you, the one-handed flush in Kentucky's collective mugging did. Dwyane Wade, he of the oft-misspelled name, can do it all and he's the reason Marquette will win the national championship.


An unbelievable Final Four outcome, you say? Well, Wade's story is rather remarkable.

Wade didn't make the high school varsity until his junior year and, according to him, he didn't dunk a basketball until the summer before his senior season. Not highly recruited, the sleepy-eyed, pigeon-toed Chicagoan was passed over by hometown DePaul and settled at Marquette where he was forced to sit out his first season as the school's first-ever partial qualifier.

Wade acknowledges that first year in Milwaukee wasn't easy, but he also says it was the best thing that ever happened to him.

"I grew as a person," he said Friday after Marquette's first Final Four practice since 1977. "I grew as a player. I grew as a teammate. I got a lot smarter by watching."

In a strange way, Wade's year on the sidelines help make possible the Golden Eagles Final Four run this year. When Robert Jackson transferred from Mississippi State, Wade helped him understand how much the big man could gain from a year out of action. "Dwyane helped me believe I could have success after sitting out a year," said Jackson. It's clear that Wade's leadership was fostered during his freshman year. Marquette coach Tom Crean didn't just honor Wade's letter of intent when the latter failed to qualify, he made him feel like he was part of the team.

The coach started by moving Wade to the front of the bench during games, asking him what he saw as play progressed. He told Wade to write down what he learned every day and quizzed him on the scouting report. After road games, the Golden Eagles would call Wade back in Milwaukee, passing the phone from player to player. Crean also sensed in Wade the gift of honesty.

"He didn't do a lot of talking, but when he did speak it was well thought out," said Crean.

So Crean asked Wade to address his teammates at halftime or after games and to get on them when they needed it. Wade's experience was invaluable for another reason. It helped ingrain Crean's idea of unselfishness as the key to winning. Talk to any of the Golden Eagles to describe Wade's game and unselfishness is the word that comes up over and over again. Most people recognize Wade for his hops or defense (69 steals on the year), but often it's his passing ability and trust in his teammates that makes him a special player.

"I think that the thing that makes him stand out is his unselfishness," said junior forward Scott Merritt. "A lot of great players always want to take the last shot. If it's not there for Dwyane, he'll set up one of us for an easy basket. He has great confidence in everyone on the court." True enough. In last year's first-round NCAA loss to Tulsa, Wade passed on taking a last second shot and Travis Diener ended up missing a long would-be, game-winning three. But, it hasn't made Wade more tentative when it comes to sharing the rock. As Wade's triple double against Kentucky attests, Wade is a complete player who knows how to pick his spots scoring wise. In fact, Diener has led the Golden Eagles in scoring in two of their four tourney games.

"At any point he can take over a game, whether it be scoring, rebounding, getting a key steal," said Diener. "That's what makes him the best player in the nation."

Adds Kansas' Kirk Hinrich, "A lot of times when you get ready to play against somebody, you try to take something away from them. Maybe he favors his right hand. Maybe he favors the jump shot. I don't think you can say that about (Wade). He's just so versatile. We think of him as a scorer, but he makes a lot of great passes too."

Wade calls it "taking what the game gives him" and it's one reason why you shouldn't doubt Marquette's ability to win it all. Like all great players, Wade can dominate even when he's not scoring. It's something Crean discovered early about Wade when Marquette began tracking Dwyane's AAU team.

Playing for a loaded Illinois Warriors team that included Darius Miles, Wade wasn't the go-to guy. But he made a lot of deflections and he was always involved in the play at the end of a game to help his team turn the balance. So don't count out Marquette should they fall behind early to Kansas. Led by Wade, this is perhaps the Final Four's most resilient team.

In their lockerroom back in Milwaukee sits a plastic raft with a set of stairs leading up to it. Above it, a sign reads "Load the Boat". Crean tells his kids to load the boat with their problems, because on the floor it's all business.

In New Orleans, no one can do as many things for their team. No one can dominate a contest as much without scoring. And no one loads the boat better than Dwyane Wade
 
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NCAA Basketball: StatFox Final Four weekend Trends (final four & title game)

Currently, the favorite in the final is on quite a stretch, with an 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS record in the last 13.

- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-3 SU & ATS!!! (Kansas is a 4.5 point fav vs Marquette)

- Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-8 SU & 9-10 ATS. (Texas is a 3 point fav vs Syracuse)

- Since 1987, 60% of the games on final four weekend have gone under.
 
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The "Marquette Beats Kansas" scenario: It isn't often that the Jayhawks don't have the best player on the court, but that will be the case on Saturday. Wade, the Golden Eagles' electrifying shooting guard, has proven that it's not impossible to put up mind-blowing numbers while still helping your team win. I see Marquette finishing on top in one of two ways: Wade is out-of-his-mind brilliant like he was against Kentucky, or the Jayhawks become so focused on stopping Wade that they leave open Marquette's marksmen, guard Travis Diener and forward Steve Novak, while letting 6-foot-10 center Robert Jackson kill them on the offensive boards. Diener is also the type of heady point guard who can keep the game at a slow enough pace, which is a must against Kansas.

The "Kansas Beats Marquette" scenario: Jackson has been prone to getting in foul trouble this year, so the Jayhawks would do well to punch the ball inside to Collison early and often. Nobody has yet succeeded in stopping Kansas' secondary break, so the best strategy is to run with the Jayhawks. Good luck there. Also, Wade is not a great long-range shooter, and if his shot is off (remember, players often don't shoot well in a dome), then Plan A goes out the window. And here's a hunch: This type of game is usually decided by a secondary player who steps up at an opportune time. Someone like Kansas swingman Keith Langford. If he scores in double digits, the Jayhawks coast.

The "Texas Beats Syracuse" scenario: Everyone seems to believe that a zone is the best way to stop a penetrating point guard, but that's only half true -- because penetration from the point is also the best way to beat a zone. And in case you haven't noticed, T.J. Ford is pretty good at slipping into open cracks. (That's why his teammate Royal Ivey calls him "Rat.") In addition, Texas is more than just Ford, contrary to what you might have heard. The Longhorns have a plethora of spot-up shooters as well as the nation's best rotation of big men. As long as someone is making shots, the Longhorns should be able to beat the zone with relative ease.

The "Syracuse Beats Texas" scenario: OK, the zone should frustrate Ford -- not because he can't beat a zone, but because he and his mates haven't faced anything like it all year. It's that same lack of familiarity that always makes Temple so tough to beat in March. Syracuse also earns the nod in the best-player-on-the-court category. (And stop dreaming that Carmelo Anthony is coming back next year, 'Cuse fans. He's not.) Syracuse doesn't quite have the size to match Texas up front (who does?), but few people realize that the size of Syracuse's guards, especially 6-4 Billy Edelin, is a major advantage. It's a pretty easy scenario to envision: Jeremy McNeil and Craig Forth hold their own on the boards, Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick nail open jumpers, 'Melo gets his -- and the Orangemen move on
 
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The dark side of the Moon
Did you know? Syracuse is 3-0 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents this season or that Texas is 2-5 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997? :nutkick
 
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FINAL FOUR GAME TRENDS
With each year having just two final four round games and a single championship game, I figured it would be best to look at the entire final four weekend as a whole. In addition, I've taken the database back a few years, to 1987, the self-described "Modern Era" of College Basketball, when long shots started counting for three points, and metal rims replaced peach baskets, etc.! Be sure to refer back to some of these patterns that have formed when the big weekend arrives.

Overall Favorite/Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 48 total final four games played, and the ATS results have been about as predictable as the flip of a coin. While the favorites have won 31 of the 48 games straight up, the underdogs own a 25-23 ATS edge. In the championship game though, the favorites hold a slight edge, having won nine of 16 ATS and 13 of those 16 straight up. Currently, the favorite in the final is on quite a stretch, with an 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS record in the last 11. Connecticut was the last underdog to win SU & ATS in the final, beating heavily favored Duke 77-74, while catching 9-1/2 points.

Line Placement
It?s clear that just simply going with a favorite or underdog in a final four game will not lead you to any kind of consistent success. Looking closer at the amount of points being given or had does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement:

? Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS.
? Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-3 SU & ATS.
? Favorites of less than 4 points are 11-8 SU & 9-10 ATS.

The only three times since '87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan St beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 pt favorite, in the '97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in last year's championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were clear cut covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the ?90 final when UNLV throttled Duke 103-73 as a 4 point favorite. Not even a super duper quadruple teaser would have won that night with Duke. However, the Blue Devils gained their revenge a year later by dethroning the Runnin? Rebels in a 79-77 semifinal upset.

Seed Records
Does a team's seed help determine anything about potential wagers? Unfortunately, no. Check out the records of the seeds since '87:
Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)
#1?s: 23-20, 53.5% (26-17)
#2?s: 8-11, 42.1% (8-11)
#3?s: 8-5, 61.5% (6-7)
#4?s: 4-5, 44.4% (3-6)
#5?s: 2-3, 40.0% (2-3)
#6?s: 3-2, 60.0% (3-2)
#8?s: 0-2, 0.0% (0-2)

From these results, no clear cut safest play emerges. However, going a bit deeper reveals that any number one seed that is an underdog has performed at a 7-3 ATS clip. Furthermore, despite the seed leading 61.5% ATS, only one 3rd seed, Michigan in '89, has won a championship.

Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You'll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, while the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten struggle somewhat. Check out the conference records:

Conference ATS Record (SU Mark)
ACC: 12-13, 48% (13-12)
Atlantic 10: 1-0, 100% (0-1)
Big 12: 4-6, 40.0% (4-6)
Big East: 8-1, 88.9% (5-4)
Big Ten: 8-11, 42.1% (9-10)
Great Midwest: 0-1, 0.0% (0-1)
Pac 10: 6-3, 66.7% (5-4)
SEC: 6-10, 37.5% (9-7)
WAC: 3-3, 50.0% (3-3)

Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? We suspect the oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. The avid fan should know by now though that defense wins championships (and semifinal games too)! To illustrate this point, of the 45 final four games being analyzed, there have been 29 UNDERS, 18 OVERS, and 1 PUSH. 32 of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 21 were UNDERS. Not even UNLV's high flying teams of the early '90's were able to meet ridiculously inflated totals. In their championship run of 1990, the Runnin' Rebels went UNDER in both games, each with a total in the 180's! Some NBA teams can't even score that much anymore!So there you have it! A look at some round by round trends from recent tournament action. Hopefully it helps you towards some success this year. Regardless, whatever this year's madness holds in store, its sure to be exciting.
 
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May 26, 2002
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Good luck Anthony..........but I would love to see a Syracuse/MQuette final..........anyway....good luck :D

(and make sure a flip to the Leaf game.....could be a wild one...!!)
 
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