3 units : louisiana tech (+27.5) over boise state
posted some thoughts on this game in an earlier thread, but in a nutshell- simply feel boise is grossly overvalued in this spot. theyve been a covering machine the last few weeks, and have been smacking teams around. but this is their fourth straight week of laying four touchdowns or more . thats a very tough "emotional task" for boise, to have the incentive to blow out yet another inferior opponent. even the best teams get complacent when facing a string of inferior teams (look no further than the hurricanes). louisiana tech can move the ball, and they pass the football very well. i see the true "spread differential" between these two teams being about 17-21 points, as opposed to the 27-30 range. its also worth noting that latech is averaging about 30 pts a game this season, so assuming their offense doesnt sputter (which is unlikely, given boise's average defense), its gonna require upwards of 60 boise points for a cover. i just dont see it. this number is really inflated imo. boise is a freakin juggernaut- but i feel very good about the dog in this spot. 4 TDs is damn tough to cover against a team that can move the ball like latech can.
3 units : bowling green/ south florida over 59
write-up for this game was posted earlier in the week under the subject heading "scattered mac thoughts"
3 units : western michigan (+7) over toledo
toledo has been a cash cow for me over the last few years, but western is a live home dog saturday afternoon. these teams always have tight battles. the broncos are in somewhat of a "down year" but this is a solid program- and even in this down year- theyve played balls out vs their toughest opponents, and thats a sign of a well-coached team. wmu should have won SU on the road in purdue (lost by 4), played virginia tech very tough at home in a game where the final was very deceptive, lost to bowling green on the road in overtime by 3 points, and lost to northern illinois by 4 points. this team is fully capable of pulling the upset saturday. toledo is a young team with a HUGE game on deck next saturday against northern illinois. the rockets have struggled on the road this year (indicative of a young team), and wmu is in a very nice spot as a live home dog. this game should go to the wire, as most toledo/wmu tilts normally do.
2 units : lsu (+1.5) over alabama
i know, i know. the tide doesnt lose in baton rouge. but i think the kentucky miracle will have a positive effect on the tigers. both teams are obviously very sound defensively- but i just feel lsu is gonna use last weeks game as a springboard to take care of business this week against a team that has punked them routinely at home over the years.
2 units : arizona state (+16) over southern cal
definitely a game matching two teams of different philosophies. asu's strength is their passing game, which has been excellent since koetter arrived from boise. usc's strength is their defense, which is very impressive. asu has struggled the last 2 weeks - so i think this number is pushed out a little more than it should be. devils arent going to get their normal scoring/yardage output, but i think they have enough offense to hang within this 2-plus TD number. trojans are always a shaky DD chalk in recent years. good spot to play another doggie.
plays im considering, but have yet to play for various reasons:
clemson, minnesota, ohio state, michigan state
needless to say, i abhor chalk plays, lol.
gl this weekend fellas.
posted some thoughts on this game in an earlier thread, but in a nutshell- simply feel boise is grossly overvalued in this spot. theyve been a covering machine the last few weeks, and have been smacking teams around. but this is their fourth straight week of laying four touchdowns or more . thats a very tough "emotional task" for boise, to have the incentive to blow out yet another inferior opponent. even the best teams get complacent when facing a string of inferior teams (look no further than the hurricanes). louisiana tech can move the ball, and they pass the football very well. i see the true "spread differential" between these two teams being about 17-21 points, as opposed to the 27-30 range. its also worth noting that latech is averaging about 30 pts a game this season, so assuming their offense doesnt sputter (which is unlikely, given boise's average defense), its gonna require upwards of 60 boise points for a cover. i just dont see it. this number is really inflated imo. boise is a freakin juggernaut- but i feel very good about the dog in this spot. 4 TDs is damn tough to cover against a team that can move the ball like latech can.
3 units : bowling green/ south florida over 59
write-up for this game was posted earlier in the week under the subject heading "scattered mac thoughts"
3 units : western michigan (+7) over toledo
toledo has been a cash cow for me over the last few years, but western is a live home dog saturday afternoon. these teams always have tight battles. the broncos are in somewhat of a "down year" but this is a solid program- and even in this down year- theyve played balls out vs their toughest opponents, and thats a sign of a well-coached team. wmu should have won SU on the road in purdue (lost by 4), played virginia tech very tough at home in a game where the final was very deceptive, lost to bowling green on the road in overtime by 3 points, and lost to northern illinois by 4 points. this team is fully capable of pulling the upset saturday. toledo is a young team with a HUGE game on deck next saturday against northern illinois. the rockets have struggled on the road this year (indicative of a young team), and wmu is in a very nice spot as a live home dog. this game should go to the wire, as most toledo/wmu tilts normally do.
2 units : lsu (+1.5) over alabama
i know, i know. the tide doesnt lose in baton rouge. but i think the kentucky miracle will have a positive effect on the tigers. both teams are obviously very sound defensively- but i just feel lsu is gonna use last weeks game as a springboard to take care of business this week against a team that has punked them routinely at home over the years.
2 units : arizona state (+16) over southern cal
definitely a game matching two teams of different philosophies. asu's strength is their passing game, which has been excellent since koetter arrived from boise. usc's strength is their defense, which is very impressive. asu has struggled the last 2 weeks - so i think this number is pushed out a little more than it should be. devils arent going to get their normal scoring/yardage output, but i think they have enough offense to hang within this 2-plus TD number. trojans are always a shaky DD chalk in recent years. good spot to play another doggie.
plays im considering, but have yet to play for various reasons:
clemson, minnesota, ohio state, michigan state
needless to say, i abhor chalk plays, lol.
gl this weekend fellas.
