Are Aaron Nola and Tanner Roark verging on breakouts? .... full article here.... excerpt:
In his young career, Nola has shown the ability to be above-average as both a bat-misser and a bat-freezer, and that has been a rare combination...While we shouldn't go overboard on the basis of his four 2016 starts, it's not hard to imagine Nola staying on a trajectory to get a strikeout per inning with an extraordinary WHIP. He should also be able to whittle his ERA down to around 3.00, despite allowing more than the occasional home run.
So what about Roark? As mentioned above, he has also been very good at getting called strikes, even though he has faced some trigger-happy lineups. Owen Watson did a nice job of looking behind Roark's improvement in a piece on FanGraphs, emphasizing that he has been getting increased horizontal movement on his sinker. Roark's sinker has been a difference-maker so far this season, as he has induced swings on 38.9 percent of those offerings so far in 2016, as compared to 44.4 percent previously (according to BrooksBaseball.net). It's also worth noting that Roark has raised the release point on his sinker and has increased the vertical movement on it.
Even with the mechanical changes and increased movement, Roark won't be in Nola's class. He has struggled with control and efficiency, and has been getting whiffs at an 8.8 percent rate. Still, if the changes stick.......
In his young career, Nola has shown the ability to be above-average as both a bat-misser and a bat-freezer, and that has been a rare combination...While we shouldn't go overboard on the basis of his four 2016 starts, it's not hard to imagine Nola staying on a trajectory to get a strikeout per inning with an extraordinary WHIP. He should also be able to whittle his ERA down to around 3.00, despite allowing more than the occasional home run.
So what about Roark? As mentioned above, he has also been very good at getting called strikes, even though he has faced some trigger-happy lineups. Owen Watson did a nice job of looking behind Roark's improvement in a piece on FanGraphs, emphasizing that he has been getting increased horizontal movement on his sinker. Roark's sinker has been a difference-maker so far this season, as he has induced swings on 38.9 percent of those offerings so far in 2016, as compared to 44.4 percent previously (according to BrooksBaseball.net). It's also worth noting that Roark has raised the release point on his sinker and has increased the vertical movement on it.
Even with the mechanical changes and increased movement, Roark won't be in Nola's class. He has struggled with control and efficiency, and has been getting whiffs at an 8.8 percent rate. Still, if the changes stick.......
