First and 10

[lostinamerica]

Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!


Eastern Michigan(-6') over Buffalo (1*)
- Just do it. Or not.

GL


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Don't believe everything you think.

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2004NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003 NCAA Bowls: 7-7 (-0.42*)

 

[ajoytoy]

great stuff LIA

gl on the play and the season

toy

 

[lostinamerica]

GAMES:


Rutgers(+6)(-108) over Michigan State (1*)
Hard to question whether Rutgers HC Schiano has done the right things to build the foundation of the 2004 Rutgers squad. Spartan HC John L.. Smith righted a mess last year, but is this not the right opponent in the right place to launch a season of BIG promise on the right foot? "Rutgers will not let this game get out of hand at home." ~ Nickleback . . . Reputations on both sides enhance the line value . . . . . You can ask if the Spartan's spread offense can exploit what has been a suspect secondary, but I don't see that question as the essence of this contest.


Louisville(-8') over Kentucky (1.5*)
I look for HC Petrino to sufficiently stoke the passion for this home opener to allow a stacked offense to score at a pace Kentucky won't match.


Cincinnati(+16) over Ohio State (1*)
On both sides of the ball, the visitor brings experienced playmakers used to losing close games. With new head coach (and former OhSt defensive coordinator) Dantonio making his debut in the Horseshoe, Buckeye HC Jim Tressel might be more than a little nervous during the course of this one, which means you have a tough sell convincing me that cutting loose with a young team will be the order of the day instead of a close to the vest wielding of the strengths of the homestanders.


Iowa(-30') over Kent State (1*)
Throwback jerseys and themes at Kinnick should not hurt Iowa HC Ferentz's chances of building on a 18-3-1 ATS home record, against a first year coach with a generous defense and the soul of the team suspended. Ferentz respects any opponent and will let his coaches and charges play ball, especially a young team sorting itself out. 60 minutes of mismatches on a warm and sunny day should yield the necessary quota of easy scores.


That's four for now.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

ADDING GAMES:

Mississippi State(-6') over Tulane (1*)
Mississippi State was -21 in TO ratio last year. In this historic affair, I think HC Crooms getting a big effort is more likely than not.

UNLV(+20') over Tennessee (1*)
Just do it. Or not.

Penn State(-15) over Akron (1*)
Sure feels right.

Cal(-14)(-108) over Air Force (1*)
"Air Force HC DeBerry has surprised most everyone by naming freshman Shaun Carney to run his complicated triple-option offense. In DeBerry's 21 seasons as Air Force's head coach, only Dee Dowis started a game as a freshman at quarterback, and that was the final game of Dowis' freshman year in 1986, a game the Falcons lost 23-3 to BYU." (Denver Post) QB is just the biggest one of many spots in which one of our men in uniform is going to have to step into the breach on this year's team and come up big . . . I like Cal under Tedford for a lot of reasons in a lot of spots, but months to prepare is as good a reason as any in this one.

GL

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NOTES:

DEBUT OF INSTANT REPLAY:
- Denver Post (9/3/04)
The Big Ten wants to clear up some potential bad calls, but the instant replay it will officially use this season already appears to be a bad call. Numerous nonconference opponents, given the option, are opting to take their chances with the officials. The system is that flawed.

"My own experience from an NFL coach's standpoint is the NFL has a pretty intricate system," said UCLA coach Karl Dorrell, a former Broncos assistant who declined to use it for the Sept. 11 game at Illinois. "(The NFL) has a lot of resources. The number of camera angles help in any discretionary call.

"My information from the Big Ten is theirs is nothing close to what I'm used to."

He's right. The system will use only TV replays with no extra camera angles. The responsibility to reverse a call lies solely with a Big Ten technical adviser in the press box. Coaches will have no say in which calls get reviewed.

"If we have no say as a coaching staff and their league is appointing someone who determines what plays are reviewed, we don't know who those people are," said Dirk Koetter, who turned down the offer when his Arizona State team visits Northwestern next week. "I'm sure they're honorable people and all, but they're not from our conference."

The Big Ten, which will partner with the Mid-American Conference in the operation, starts the experiment Saturday. It will be used in all Big Ten conference games.

"The thing about the Big Ten is we always try to be leaders in the field," Ohio State coach Jim Tressel said. "We do everything we can to make the student-athlete experience better."



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[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 5-2 (+2.80*)

Rutgers and Louisville were my strongest plays for the week.

GL