First and Ten

[lostinamerica]

Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe dozens of them, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!


My concise Cheat Sheet:

http://goldsheet.com/2007-Preview-pages/annual-preview-download.php


GL


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Don't believe everything you think.

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2003-2006 All Games: 404-375 (+1.42*) :wall:


2006 NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)
2006-2007 NCAA Bowl Season: 8-7 (+0.00*)

2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Post Season: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)

 

[lostinamerica]

Iowa(-11') over Northern Illinois (1.5*)
- - My best bet of the season is that the Iowa Hawkeyes are operating seriously under the radar . . . "Bristling" is my take on the collective effect any recent transgressions have had upon a focused group of coaches and players . . . At sold out Soldier Field, there will be separation in the first half and the second half will not be even.

GL

 

[#cruncher]

Was thinking the same thing myself about Iowa...think they think they have a lot of making up to do for last season and what better way than to take it out on a lesser opponent.

 

[lostinamerica]

Iowa(Ov8' Wins)(-120) (1*) (Regular Season Prop)

- - My best bet of the season is that the Iowa Hawkeyes are operating seriously under the radar . . .

Georgia Tech(+3)(-120) over Notre Dame (1*)

Auburn(-13) over Kansas State (1*)

Illinois(+4) over Missouri (1*)

Oklahoma State(+6') over Georgia (1*)

- - Liking plays on quite a large number of games, and a fair number of live dogs, but nothing strong enough yet for Thursday (LSU/MissSt Un45?). Writeups and some additional games to follow by Saturday.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Illinois(+4) over Missouri (1*)
- - I'm fairly sure the point is missed here if you say you'll need convincing to concede Illinois has anything. With Ron Zook at the helm, a campaign seasoned with break downs, a lack of discipline, game day coaching mistakes and underachieving is the way to wager until proven otherwise. But opponents will HATE to play this Illinois team surging with talent, playmakers and impressive depth. If you find a spot in which Illinois is hungry and focused, they will be a load and more than capable of powering through their fundamental shortcomings . . . When I went through the schedule for the opening week, this is the game the leaped off the page for me as a case of one team being focused on showing something to the whole world and having the proper opponent (and border rival) for the opportunity - and again in typical Ron Zook style, probably with a "too many eggs in this one basket" approach, and not enough attention to the keys for long term success. Coming off a season in which the Illini played their best against their toughest opponents while losing their last 7 games, and absorbing 5 of their 10 losses were in games decided on the final possession, maybe they'll start the new season flat (not!) and have no goals with regard to valuing the football for once (I'll want to kill 'em if they're blatantly careless with the ball in this one). QB Juice Williams needs maturity and accuracy, but at the moment he impresses as a dynamic leader with an arsenal at his disposal, as the Illini offense looks to catch up with the strides made by their defense last year. I do wish the game was outdoors, as domes can create pressures of a big stage atmosphere, and at the same time an awkward sense of complacency, concerns that wouldn't exist for me under a September sky . . . Looking at Mizzou, I think at least a few of Gary Pinkel's squads at Missouri and Toledo can be categorized as underachieving and victims of fundamental deficiencies and break downs (and I suspect without really knowing that high expectations have not been a blessing in this regard). While Missouri?s offense is one of the most explosive in the country (the deepest receiving corps in the Big 12, with Will Franklin, Danario Alexander, Jared Perry and Greg Bracey all proven deep threats. And while Jeremy Maclin is just a redshirt freshman, he may be the deepest threat of all. Tommy Saunders, Alexander, Franklin and Maclin also can be counted on to make the tough catch over the middle. Other teams may have one better individual, but no team has as many good ones. And no team has two tight ends like Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman), the Illini can match up against a potent offense, and with all the records he set last season, QB Chase Daniel hasn't proven he can do it consistently against the toughest opponents on MU?s schedule. On the other side of the ball, the Tiger's need to show an ability to shut down the express lane that opposing running backs followed through the heart of the defensive line a year ago - but it looks like Mizzou is cocky "all of that is in the holster" ( Lorenzo Williams contends that Missouri gleaned as much out of its first three weeks of preseason training camp as could be squeezed . . . ?As far as the physical toughness and the attitude, all of that is in the holster,? said Williams, a senior defensive tackle. ?Let?s go. Let?s roll.? . . .Whether this year players can do even half of what the departed Brian Smith and Xzavie Jackson did for MU last season. With Smith and Jackson, Missouri had a fierce pass rush. With Sulak and Chavis, Missouri has to prove it not only can pressure the quarterback but contain the sweeps of opposing runners) . . . I see a live dog in this one.


Georgia Tech(+3)(-120) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - Tons of questions for the Irish. By every measure of comparison - matchups, intangibles, etc. - I really struggle to see how Charlie Weis gets his altar boys to be the better team this day, and yet Tech doesn't even have to win the game to get the football money.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Notre Dame(Pk) over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - That "middle" now has too much value to pass on.

Wyoming(+3) over Virginia (1*)
- - The "numbers" and the intangibles rather than the matchups make this play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Stanford(+16') over UCLA (1*)

- - Liking plays on quite a large number of games, and a fair number of live dogs

- - Sticking with what I'm seeing.




Stanford started training camp three weeks ago with a lot of energy and excitement. When it ended Saturday, the mood had not changed.
"The attitude is way up from what it's ever been since I've been here," said defensive lineman Chris Horn, a fifth-year senior. "After camp in the past, we've always felt, `OK, now the season begins.' But through (this) camp, we've felt that we're preparing for something, and it's been good."

The new coaching staff is the primary reason for the attitude adjustment, Horn said. He isn't the only one to notice.

After former Stanford star Darrin Nelson, now a senior associate athletic director at the school, watched the team's scrimmage Thursday, he said of new coach Jim Harbaugh, "He's brought something that's really important - that's that the players respect him. It seems like they want to play for him.

"I'm not quite sure Walt (Harris) had that. I think Walt had that initially. But as the seasons wore on, I think that kind of went away. I think Jim has that now. Whether he keeps that or not, it's up to him. But I think he has the kind of coaching style where he'll be OK."

Harbaugh, who replaced Harris in December, said he was pleased with what he saw the past three weeks but added, "There is nothing over in my mind. That was practice 24. Practice 25, (26, 27, 28 and 29) are still to come before we play UCLA."


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Florida State(-3)(-115) over Clemson (1*)
- - Demanding new OC Jimbo Fisher, replacing Jeff Bowden, mustered, "I'm not totally disgusted" as praise when his new system was installed in the spring. The sudden death of popular DC Mickey Andrew's son adds some special purpose http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070823/FSU01/708230359/1008/FSU to the Noles preparation for this rivalry rematch. http://www.nolesports.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070830/FSU03/708300381/1008/FSU Looking for some of the insipid direction and efforts that have been the signature of FSU games in recent years would not be a solid call for this game, and likely no one benefits more than underachieving QB Weatherford from a cohesive attack by his teammates.



Next Week:

Missouri(-6) over Missippi (1*)
- - Immediate positives came out of their battle with Illinois, while Ole Miss did enough to gain a 1-0 foothold on their season.

Penn State(-16) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - It looks to me like the visitor is taking a knife to a gun fight . . . The one thing from the opener that Paterno has to ride his team about is their getting off to a slow start before adjusting and then torching an opponent hell bent on slowing down the run.


Odds and Ends: Have the revised clock rules improved the chances of huge favorites covering the number?


GL