First and Ten

[lostinamerica]

For the record:

2003-2010/2011 All Games (8 seasons): 794-760 (-33.13*)


2010 NCAA Regular Season: 49-45 (-3.40*)
2010-2011 NCAA Bowl Season: 14-10 (+4.15*)

2009 NCAA Regular Season: 51-46 (-2.64*)
2009-2010 NCAA Bowl Season: 10-11 (+0.12*)

2008 NCAA Regular Season: 42-52 (-11.95*)
2008-2009 NCAA Bowl Season: 12-9 (+2.25*)

2007 NCAA Regular Season: 27-36 (-13.95*)
2007-2008 NCAA Bowl Season: 6-7 (-2.40*)

2006 NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)
2006-2007 NCAA Bowl Season: 8-7 (+0.00*)

2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)



2010 NFL Regular Season: 37-46 (-14.65*)
2010-2011 NFL Postseason: 9-4 (+4.32*)

2009 NFL Regular Season: 57-45 (+8.40*)
2009-2010 NFL Post Season: 7-6 (-0.80*)

2008 NFL Regular Season: 32-25 (+5.80*)
2008-2009 NFL Post Season: 6-5 (+0.55*)

2007 NFL Regular Season: 25-33 (-10.70*)
2007-2008 NFL Post Season: 6-5 (+0.35*)

2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Post Season: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)


2009-2011 Top Plays (a new category) (2 seasons):
(NFL & NCAA) (included above): 18-15 (+0.09*)




Inside the numbers . . .

- - I'm sure I've made a few errors in my record keeping over 8 years, but the errors would have "washed themselves out", so I'm confident in saying it would be a very short list of people that have maintained a record of their posted football wagers that is as reliable as mine.

- - Generally $40 per unit, so that's a loss of about $1200./8 seasons = $150. per year. My little parlays, and $2-$10 "action" bets, rarer and rare, and not posted, probably take the 7 year total to closer to -$1500. On the other hand, in Madjack's contests I won $500 in the Monday night contest, about $400 and $200 in two of the NCAA contests, and I've received several hundred dollars of free plays and deposit bonuses at the offshores.

- - Like I tell my family and friends, I tread water in football, but I win at golf.

- - The 2007 season and (-26.70*) was a disaster.

- - I haven't been getting any better . . . that's a topic for another post.

- - I've been perfect with my wagers in the last 6 Super Bowls and the last 5 BCS championships, including a couple of instances involving multiple wagers (i.e., pointspread/ML/totals/teasers), and including wagers larger than my customary 1*. So, my best stuff has come with the pressure to finish strong, and it was not a Kiss of Death for last season when I posted the fact of 5 and 4 game streaks at the start of the season, and then miraculously pushed with Oregon(+3), and hit with Green Bay(-3) and (Ov44).

- - Mad props to the excellent crew of cappers here at Jack's place that I generally lean on seven days a week in arriving at my decisions.

:toast:

- - I'll open the 2011 season by quoting my post to open the 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010 seasons; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was when I whipped it up in 2004, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

"Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!"


- - Hanginaround:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARiiO_41Id8


GL

******************************

Don't believe everything you think.

The Journey is the Reward.

******************************

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 0-0
NFL YTD: 0-0

I took a nice trip over the Labor Day weekend, and had plenty on my plate beforehand in order to make it happen, so I reluctantly decided it was best to pass on the opening weekend rather than get involved as an afterthought.

After the fact and while managing to be doing other stuff, this week I managed to keep the TV on and catch good chunks of Oregon/LSU, USF/ND, Minn/USC, UtSt/Aub, Boise/Ga, and Youngstown/MichSt, which is a nice development from this era of round the clock sports coverage to facilitate my method of building a notebook of ANGLES and INFORMATION, for the present and for the identities taking shape for the course of a long season.

On to the games . . . First and Ten . . .


Mississippi State(-5') over Auburn (1*)
- - This is the game I've had circled, literally on paper and figuratively in my head, for weeks going on months. Now that it's here, I definitely fail to see how the miraculous expenditure of effort and emotion by Auburn last week to feed a false aura of HC Chizik's charges recapturing the magic of last season is somehow the right recipe to prepare for the reality of a hugely hungry (and IMO extremely capable) visitor that has had extra days to prepare. The exclamation point in this game should be the dagger that was missing from last week's game confirming the full slate of top shelf efforts that will be dialed up for, and prove far too much for, the defending champs.

Oregon(-26') over Washington (1*)
- -

California(-6') over Colorado(1*)
- - In what may qualify as the strange factoid of the day, this rematch from last year is a non-conference game in the Pac 12 standings.

Minnesota(-20') over New Mexico State (1*)
- - I think an outstanding display in the 2nd half of an historically hopeless West Coast trip both sets the table and serves as evidence of the type of effort coming this week in a huge home debut for the fresh start Gopher regime under capable HC Jerry Kill.
http://www.startribune.com/sports/gophers/129168278.html


I think I should stop there with my best plays, but I know I'll be back for further insanity with the likes of Toledo, or Stanford, or Fresno State, or some totals, or some equally lame choices to put me in a hole to start the season.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Mississippi State/Auburn(Ov57') (1*)
- -

Toledo(+18)(-115) over Ohio State (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Ohio State(-8)(2h) over Toledo (1*)
- -

GL

 

[smax]

AHHH YES

THE 3 GREAT MIND FUCKS IN LIFE...... GOLF, GIRLS, AND GAMBLING

It's that time again. Had a nice little 3 teamer yesterday afternoon. Followed it up with and 0-3 nite.:mj07: :mj07:

"May your choices be blessed with all good bounces"

That said.. Minny doesn't start with a good bounce.

Vince had a good start, though

 

[IE]

nice post synopsis LIA,

thanks for being a great member of MadJacks thru the years !

best of luck Sunday and forward.

 

[lostinamerica]

smax and IE,

I didn't see your posts until I was logging in this morning to post my Boise State play.

smax - I trust you are having a better fall so far than the Hawkeyes and the Altar Boys. Since you won't be golfing much if at all for a while, I hope all the good bounces come your way on the gridiron instead. :00x11

IE - Thanks for your nice comments. I see it's coming up on 10 years since Madjacks became my #1 go to site on the world wide web. It's a pity this place isn't the gold mine it should be for you and Jack, but for some stupid and misguided government policies. Thank you for all you do to make this place and keep this place great. :0008

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 3-4 (-1.4*)
NFL YTD: 8-2 (+5.8*)

Boise State(-19) over Toledo(1*)
Toledo(+20)(-108) over Boise State
- - Looking around the net and I see I'm not alone in thinking Toledo is getting too much respect for knocking Ohio State down a few pegs, and regardless of a win, lose or draw mindset after engaging the in-state gorilla, not alone in thinking Boise overruns Toledo more often than not. I don't read this as one of the nots . . .
Update: But I've now seen some of the replay of the Ohio State game, and read some pregame comments on both sides about the matchup, and I now expect Toledo to give a good account of themselves, and Boise by 19 doesn't stands up as a strong play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Illinois(-1') over Arizona State (1*)
- - A situational dream, with undisciplined Arizona State taking to the road for the first time, in a sandwich between Missouri in overtime and USC as the gorilla on their back and probable co-favorite for the Pac 12 South division, with the line behaving favorably for the unranked favorite with playmakers. I have to lump on.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Texas(-3)(-123) over UCLA (1*)
- - Texas HC Mack Brown in the spring: "We have no expectations except to get better, brick by brick. Everything is different this spring. I think you will see a major change on both sides of the ball. We'll be more aggressive . . . We've got to fix the turnover ratio....We've got to run the ball better and help our quarterbacks until one of them can get on his feet....We've got to have corners grow up. So it's obvious what we've got to fix, but we'll have depth. We'll be really young, but I'm also excited about the fall." . . . I see advantages for Texas as the better team with the momentum and the emotional edge for this personal encounter.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Stanford(-9) over Arizona (1*)
- -

Miami(-2) over Ohio State (1*)
- -

Michigan State(+5)(-103) over Notre Dame (1*)
- -

Penn State(-7) over Temple (1*)
- -

Nevada(-6) over San Jose State (1*)
- -

Leaving off Iowa(-3), Washington(+17), and North Texas(+45).

Checking out to head to the golf course and then a wedding.

GL

 

[smax]

Congratulations

Congratulations

Have I met her ?? Why didn't I get an invitation ? How's the golf game ??

Good luck on both---- Remember my mantra

GOLF, GIRLS, AND GAMBLING---- THE 3 GREAT MIND FUCKS OF LIFE

 

[Box and one]

Lostinamerica
Great explanation about capping.....I know you are a Packer fan.I saw this summer on Broadway " Lombardi".It was awesome.I know they were selling the Broadway Playbill of the play.Not sure if you know what the Playbill is.It's the program that the theaters give you when you enter the theater.The Playbill format is the same for the past 50 years.When the play was over I was leaving the exit and picked up about 5 discarded playbills.
If you want one let me know.I'll mail it to you.Get my e-mail from madjack and send me your address.I'll send you a few of them.You can frame one or just keep them.....if I see you selling them on e-bay:nono:

If you don't want them that's fine.Lombardi went to Fordham where I come from in the Bronx.I was actually born at Fordham Hospital.I never liked him because he was an Asst. coach with the Giants and wasn't hired.Tom Landry also was on the Jint staff....hated both of them..I'm sure it was just jealousy or the Packers and Cowboys are the giants natural rivals...let me know if you want them...good luck this yr..I loved Texas too over UCLA..nice job

 

[lostinamerica]

Box -

I would definitely like to accept your offer and receive two of the playbills from Lombardi ("There are only two plays,Romeo and Juliet and take it to the basket"). I'll get back to you in this space in the next few days, and Ill get your e-mail from Jack.

I thank you, and I know my friend Scott will thank you.

GL

 

[Box and one]

lostinamarica..
When I get your e-mail I'll send you out 3 or 4 of them. Dan Lariae [the father in Wonder Years played Vince} Judith Light played his wife....it was really a great play.....I forgot about my line from Abe lemons:mj07: I actually heard him at 3 hoop clinics way back and he always used that line...I'm not sure if I learned much about X's and O's at his clinic but his stories were amazing and funny...but the greatest lines comes from someone who coached in your state.My hero...and the greatest coach about basketball life. Al McGuire...another coach who wasn't great about X's and O's but great about "how to coach" Raymonds and Majerus did most of the x's and O's....I'll send those out as soon as I get your e-mail..GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Box -

E-mail sent. Thanks again. :0008

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 7-7 (-0.71*)
NFL YTD: 9-3 (+7.75*)

I seem to have lots of leans and likes this week, but no plays I really love, like Stanford and Texas from last week. So here goes for starters:

Wyoming(+21) over Nebraska (1*)
- - The biggest game in years for the host, and a first road game of the season to never easy Laramie (no matter how many fans the Cornhuskers get in the stadium), by an IMO over regarded Bo Pelini team, in a sandwich between a revenge game against Washington and an epic tilt for the Big Red's Big Ten debut in a showdown at Wisconsin, I'm seeing a game that will stress the visitor for a full 60 minutes.
http://www.laramieboomerang.com/articles/2011/09/23/sports/doc4e7c0f7a80d76170537746.txt

Vanderbilt(+15') over South Carolina (1*)
- - Vandy sure seems to be demonstrating that Coach Franklin has taken his veteran team and has them arriving ahead of most projected schedules, and now that they are taking those strides, I don't know why this would be a luminous spot for Spurrier's Cocks. A little on the +500 ML for me.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1190452/index.htm

San Diego State(+10) over Michigan (1*)
- - Not often, but sometimes, the reasons are pretty apparent for not shying away from a popular dog, and in this game it's hard for me to see what Michigan possesses that will put away this live dog paying a visit to the Big House.

Maryland(-8') over Temple (1*)
- - Temple hasn't beaten a BCS opponent on the road in a decade, and I just don't see the middle of a Penn State and Toledo sandwich as therefore being a good spot for keeping pace with a dynamic looking squad under Coach Edsall.

Toledo(+2) over Syracuse (1*)
- - With extra rest after two disappointing results from two strong efforts, I think the wrong team is favored.

Notre Dame/Pittsburgh (Over 56) (1*)
- - Big plays coming often from wherever they come, and no dominant defense on either side, and plenty of emotion tinged with desperation, all adds up to me.

Georgia Tech(-6)(-123) over North Carolina (1*)
- -

East Carolina(-15) over UAB (1*)
- -

More to come, liking more favorites in the later games . . .

GL