First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
NCAA YTD: 30-23 (+4.18*)
NFL YTD: 17-22 (-8.25*)
Iowa(+5) over Maryland (1*)
Iowa/Maryland(Ov48')
- - I see Maryland receiving more love than my recently deceased mother . . . I don't remember exactly if this is what yyz calls an "over-dog," but hopefully it is Iowa which scores last to send the total over. Whatever worries I have about Iowa, they are not tied to the Hawkeyes getting almost a touchdown and then getting roughed up while getting locked up in a 60 minute tussle; my worries come from the chance Mayland has flash and explosion which Iowa can't contain or contend with (but that's not the way I see this one, either) . . . HC Ferentz takes his fairly familiar style of improving in October defense and QB and running game and discipline on the road in conference, 8-0 ATS their last 8 road games and strong against teams east of Ohio State, and gets HC Edsall's Maryland regime which is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS the last three years after an open week, and just 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. . . I'm not sure whether Iowa is a live dog, but I do see a snarling visitor.
Marshall(-21') over Florida International (1*)
- - Three weeks ago, my words to myself were, "Don't sleep on Marshall." I'm glad I haven't. Here the Herd looks to be juiced by having their score in all the Top 25 updates this weekend . . . Simply put, there is no reason for me to think they now have only a 52.4% chance to cover in this one.
Minnesota(-12) over Purdue (1*)
- - IMO this Minnesota team is definitely showing a collective sense of chasing something they haven't legitimately experienced in decades, with QB Leidner taking effective strides along the way, while Purdue's run with Appleby at QB is hard to see as transforming (Purdue also 0-6 ATS after a game in which 70 or more total points were scored). Purdue pays a visit today for homecoming before a Minnesota bye, and I cast a strong vote in favor of them not being a threat against this Gophers squad in this here time and place.
Michigan State(-16') over Indiana (1*)
- - A brutally bad matchup for Covington or any of the "deer in the headlights" Hoosier QBs against an elite Spartan squad which is getting taken to task for acquiring a reputation for not closing.
Iowa State(+11') over Texas (1*)
- - Texas gets a visit from the 2-4 Cyclones off their rivalry effort against Texas, while Iowa State only remembers a controversial debacle in prime time from last year which gutted their season . . . Not a strong play, and I'm not happy about the line moving from +13, but a definite side emerges after I cap the game.
GL
NFL YTD: 17-22 (-8.25*)
Iowa(+5) over Maryland (1*)
Iowa/Maryland(Ov48')
- - I see Maryland receiving more love than my recently deceased mother . . . I don't remember exactly if this is what yyz calls an "over-dog," but hopefully it is Iowa which scores last to send the total over. Whatever worries I have about Iowa, they are not tied to the Hawkeyes getting almost a touchdown and then getting roughed up while getting locked up in a 60 minute tussle; my worries come from the chance Mayland has flash and explosion which Iowa can't contain or contend with (but that's not the way I see this one, either) . . . HC Ferentz takes his fairly familiar style of improving in October defense and QB and running game and discipline on the road in conference, 8-0 ATS their last 8 road games and strong against teams east of Ohio State, and gets HC Edsall's Maryland regime which is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS the last three years after an open week, and just 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. . . I'm not sure whether Iowa is a live dog, but I do see a snarling visitor.
Marshall(-21') over Florida International (1*)
- - Three weeks ago, my words to myself were, "Don't sleep on Marshall." I'm glad I haven't. Here the Herd looks to be juiced by having their score in all the Top 25 updates this weekend . . . Simply put, there is no reason for me to think they now have only a 52.4% chance to cover in this one.
Minnesota(-12) over Purdue (1*)
- - IMO this Minnesota team is definitely showing a collective sense of chasing something they haven't legitimately experienced in decades, with QB Leidner taking effective strides along the way, while Purdue's run with Appleby at QB is hard to see as transforming (Purdue also 0-6 ATS after a game in which 70 or more total points were scored). Purdue pays a visit today for homecoming before a Minnesota bye, and I cast a strong vote in favor of them not being a threat against this Gophers squad in this here time and place.
Michigan State(-16') over Indiana (1*)
- - A brutally bad matchup for Covington or any of the "deer in the headlights" Hoosier QBs against an elite Spartan squad which is getting taken to task for acquiring a reputation for not closing.
Iowa State(+11') over Texas (1*)
- - Texas gets a visit from the 2-4 Cyclones off their rivalry effort against Texas, while Iowa State only remembers a controversial debacle in prime time from last year which gutted their season . . . Not a strong play, and I'm not happy about the line moving from +13, but a definite side emerges after I cap the game.
GL
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Played Iowa at +5 yesterday and just hammered the over 46 as the total keeps dropping. Agree on Minnesota and Michigan State as well which I hope isn't a bad sign.
Go Hawks!!
Go Hawks!!
Thanks for stopping by, smax and redsfann. :0008 Go Hawks! Go Gophers and Spartans for a day, too.
Let's weave together two seemingly disparate topics . . . (1) Time permitting, the fun part for me in posting on gambling forums is not to simply post my plays, but comes from posting capsules, a full blown analysis, or some cryptic comment about the play; and (2) Capping sports, like the sporting endeavors themselves, both lend themselves to rituals and superstitions . . . So now, I know some cappers hate posting their plays because they have experience with it being something of a jinx. But for me, the practice of posting plays has acted as a terrific governor on my wagering, and added to my already strong money management routines. Sadly, what I find sometimes leads to a capping jinx for me is when I post my comments or analysis (which is what I enjoy most about posting), instead of just shutting up and posting my plays. But today I'm going to try and have fun posting, and hope I have some fun collecting something at the window too . . . And before I close this little discussion and move on to more games, I'll note I was very sorry to see Michigan had the week off, as there was about an 80% chance I would have been looking at an opponent and a line that would have had me opposing Michigan.
Kentucky(+10) over LSU (1*)
- - Will Kentucky continue to impress? They will continue to carry my cash in this spot.
Rutgers(+21) over Ohio State (1*)
- - I've seen plenty of Rutgers this year, and they have looked to me like one of the best coached squads in the country for their level of talent, QB Gary Nova possibly excepted. So with two weeks to coach and prepare (as does Ohio State) for such a huge game in the Rutgers season, regime and entire history, I see the 21 points as a few too many to refuse.
GL
Let's weave together two seemingly disparate topics . . . (1) Time permitting, the fun part for me in posting on gambling forums is not to simply post my plays, but comes from posting capsules, a full blown analysis, or some cryptic comment about the play; and (2) Capping sports, like the sporting endeavors themselves, both lend themselves to rituals and superstitions . . . So now, I know some cappers hate posting their plays because they have experience with it being something of a jinx. But for me, the practice of posting plays has acted as a terrific governor on my wagering, and added to my already strong money management routines. Sadly, what I find sometimes leads to a capping jinx for me is when I post my comments or analysis (which is what I enjoy most about posting), instead of just shutting up and posting my plays. But today I'm going to try and have fun posting, and hope I have some fun collecting something at the window too . . . And before I close this little discussion and move on to more games, I'll note I was very sorry to see Michigan had the week off, as there was about an 80% chance I would have been looking at an opponent and a line that would have had me opposing Michigan.
Kentucky(+10) over LSU (1*)
- - Will Kentucky continue to impress? They will continue to carry my cash in this spot.
Rutgers(+21) over Ohio State (1*)
- - I've seen plenty of Rutgers this year, and they have looked to me like one of the best coached squads in the country for their level of talent, QB Gary Nova possibly excepted. So with two weeks to coach and prepare (as does Ohio State) for such a huge game in the Rutgers season, regime and entire history, I see the 21 points as a few too many to refuse.
GL
Alabama(-11') over Texas A&M (1*)
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SMU(+13) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - I couldn't put my hard earned money on this team, but a hunch tells me they can carry a little of my excess cash today.
Arkansas(+3) over Georgia (1*)
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GL
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SMU(+13) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - I couldn't put my hard earned money on this team, but a hunch tells me they can carry a little of my excess cash today.
Arkansas(+3) over Georgia (1*)
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GL
Arizona State(+3') over Stanford (1*)
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Washington(+22) over Oregon (1*)
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Notre Dame(+9') over Florida State(1*)
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GL
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Washington(+22) over Oregon (1*)
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Notre Dame(+9') over Florida State(1*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 37-30
This is only the second week I like the NFL card.
This is only the third week (I believe) I don't like the college card.
In the early games, I sort of like Rutgers(+21), Kansas State(-10), Maryland(+10') and Virginia (-7). But I only want to play about two of those, and I definitely want one of them to be an easy winner.
I think I should throw out Rutgers, and take the last three.
GL
This is only the second week I like the NFL card.
This is only the third week (I believe) I don't like the college card.
In the early games, I sort of like Rutgers(+21), Kansas State(-10), Maryland(+10') and Virginia (-7). But I only want to play about two of those, and I definitely want one of them to be an easy winner.
I think I should throw out Rutgers, and take the last three.
GL
Kansas State(-9') over Texas (1*)
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Rice(-16') over North Texas (1*)
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Virginia(-7) over North Carolina (1*)
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GL
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Rice(-16') over North Texas (1*)
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Virginia(-7) over North Carolina (1*)
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GL
Marshall(-27')(-105) over Florida Atlantic (1*)
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Michigan (+17)(-120) over Michigan State (1*)
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GL
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Michigan (+17)(-120) over Michigan State (1*)
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GL
Auburn(-18) over South Carolina (1*)
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Ohio State(-14)(-120) over Penn State (1*)
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Mississippi(-3)(-129) over LSU (1*)
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GL
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Ohio State(-14)(-120) over Penn State (1*)
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Mississippi(-3)(-129) over LSU (1*)
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GL
I'm off to Kinnick Stadium for the Iowa game, and no time for any Saturday morning checking on these plays.
Notre Dame(-14') over Navy (1.5*)
- - After two weeks of wide ranging discussion about this Notre Dame team to date, this Navy team is not going to carry my cash against ND's chances today.
Kentucky(+8) over Missouri (1*)
- - Seems very solid, absent any Saturday morning checking.
Arizona(+6') over UCLA (1*)
- - I'd have set a different line on this game based on the arc of two fairly clear 2014 campaigns I've been following.
Oregon(-7)(-120) over Stanford (1*)
- - A little bit more of the same (i.e., light).
Mississippi State(-10') over Arkansas (1*)
- - I know which team is up against a tough, tough spot, unless they are awfully deep.
Auburn(+1) over Mississippi(1*)
- - For most of October I was thinking Auburn was the best team (even though I was leaning to Mississippi State when they lost), but now I like what I see at Alabama, with the idea of "playing" for this here national championship sharply in focus, but the route from here will be earned. . . . Anyway, this is still sort of an SEC heavyweight tossup.
Duke(+3) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - This is a pick on Duke, plain and simple, but that's because it's a Pitt team I'm not clueless about.
Iowa(-3)(-129) over Northwestern (1*)
- - It's Northwestern, and was a point too many, but still a spot where Iowa can carry my cash at home today.
Rutgers(+14) over Wisconsin (1*)
- - Of their three straight opponents, this is the best match, and it's welcome to our home.
TCU(-4) over West Virginia (1*)
- - Proponents could make a case for either side, but say OK to TCU at the moment.
GL
Notre Dame(-14') over Navy (1.5*)
- - After two weeks of wide ranging discussion about this Notre Dame team to date, this Navy team is not going to carry my cash against ND's chances today.
Kentucky(+8) over Missouri (1*)
- - Seems very solid, absent any Saturday morning checking.
Arizona(+6') over UCLA (1*)
- - I'd have set a different line on this game based on the arc of two fairly clear 2014 campaigns I've been following.
Oregon(-7)(-120) over Stanford (1*)
- - A little bit more of the same (i.e., light).
Mississippi State(-10') over Arkansas (1*)
- - I know which team is up against a tough, tough spot, unless they are awfully deep.
Auburn(+1) over Mississippi(1*)
- - For most of October I was thinking Auburn was the best team (even though I was leaning to Mississippi State when they lost), but now I like what I see at Alabama, with the idea of "playing" for this here national championship sharply in focus, but the route from here will be earned. . . . Anyway, this is still sort of an SEC heavyweight tossup.
Duke(+3) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - This is a pick on Duke, plain and simple, but that's because it's a Pitt team I'm not clueless about.
Iowa(-3)(-129) over Northwestern (1*)
- - It's Northwestern, and was a point too many, but still a spot where Iowa can carry my cash at home today.
Rutgers(+14) over Wisconsin (1*)
- - Of their three straight opponents, this is the best match, and it's welcome to our home.
TCU(-4) over West Virginia (1*)
- - Proponents could make a case for either side, but say OK to TCU at the moment.
GL
