First and Ten

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Thanks, smax. :0008

Happy Thanksgiving to You and All the Family!


Utah(-14) over Oregon (1*)
- -

Arkansas/Mississippi State(Ov58') (1*)
- -

Iowa(-10) over Illinois (1*)
- -

Oklahoma State(+6') over TCU (1*)
- -

Colorado(-5') over Washington State (1*)
- -

Tennessee(-16') over Missouri (1*)
- -

Northwestern(-2')(-113) over Minnesota (1*)
- -

West Virginia(+3') over Oklahoma (1*)
- -

USC(-13) over UCLA (1*)
- -

Stanford(-10') over California (1*)
- -

Buffalo(+34) over Western Michigan (1*)
- -

Indiana(+24') over Michigan (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Thanks for the words of encouragement.

The Journey is the Reward is the story on Senior Day for the Buffs. I see much the same for Penn State, although a bigger surprise on turning their season and a bit thinner in matchup advantages. See what happens beyond that.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,512
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 79-62 (+9.46*)
NFL YTD: 31-35 (-11.47*)
NFLX: 2-0 (+2.00*)

West Virginia(-17') over Baylor (1*)
- - Baylor will not have any of the answers needed in this one.

Wisconsin(-3) over Penn State (1*)
- -

Alabama(-23') over Florida (1*)
- -

Virginia Tech(+10') over Clemson (1*)
- - This Clemson team has not possessed the special qualities of last year's team. Not sure what that means for today.

Kansas State(+4) over TCU (1*)
- -

Wyoming(+5') over San Diego State (1*)
- - I went into this game liking the other side, but my research suggests a live dog.

Oklahoma State(+12) over Oklahoma (1*)
- -

Navy(-2) over Temple (1*)
- - 4,999th post.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,512
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NCAA YTD: 83-66 (+9.06*)

Bumping all plays to 1.5* for the rest of the season.


Army(+8) over Navy (1.5*)
- -


Certain and Almost Certain:
- - Oklahoma(-5') over Auburn
- - Clemson(+3) over Ohio State
- - Iowa(+1') over Florida
- - San Diego State(+5) over Houston
- - Michigan(-7) over Florida State
- - Wisconsin(-7') over Western Michigan


Leans:
- - Wyoming(+9') over BYU
- - Pittsburgh(-3) over Northwestern
- - Alabama(-16) over Washington
- - West Virginia(Pk) over Miami
- - Colorado(-4') over Oklahoma State
- - Tennessee(-4') over Nebraska
- - Boise State(-7') over Baylor


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,512
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lostinamerica said:
Bumping all plays to 1.5* for the rest of the season.

Army(+8) over Navy (1.5*)
- -
Click to expand...

A big chance for a middle with the line now at Navy(-4'), but I'm staying with the value in the original play. But I will share a supportive analysis from another site:

"4* Army +8 This could be the year that Army finally wins this rivalry game. I plan to play a ML play, when it shows up for the offshore books, for a small bet. Last year, when Army was 2-10 and lost about half their games by blowouts, they lost by 3 to Navy, and would have won if not for their 3 turnovers. The year before, Army again lost a close one. Navy is coming off a bruising loss to Temple, a physical game where they lost their starting QB(who has been a great find, and a backup himself), their top RB, and maybe 3 other offensive players who are questionable. A few defensive players are also questionable. Army is well rested, and off a marshmallow match-up with Morgan State. I think Army has been preparing for this Navy game for 3 weeks now, while Navy expects to win, but is severely banged up. The Navy 3rd string QB, Zach Abey, looks to be a decent player, but he's no Will Worth or Tago Smith.

Army is better suited for games like this. Defensively, this is one of their better squads in many years. They can't play with a much faster, high passing team like Notre Dame, but they did beat Temple and Wake Forest, two run-heavy offenses like Navy. Army QB Ahmad Bradshaw is one of the better passing QBs Army has recruited. His stats look mediocre, but the talent is there, and he has 3 weeks to work with the offense on plays designed to deceive a tired and depleted Navy defense. Another reason I like this game is that Navy's prolific offense has masked the issues Navy's D has. They are 111th in the nation in defensive efficiency, which measures points allowed vs. level of competition, and deducts points allowed in garbage time. Navy's defense lost 10 starters to graduation, and along with injuries, is nowhere near what it was last year when it was a pretty good D by Navy standards."


South Dakota State(+6')(-115)(2h) over North Dakota State (1*)
- - I really like what I'm seeing (unless the moment is way too big for the Jacks to stay within 10), but not worthy of a bump to 1.5*


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
lostinamerica said:
Bumping all plays to 1.5* for the rest of the season.


Army(+8) over Navy (1.5*)
- -


Certain and Almost Certain:
- - Oklahoma(-5') over Auburn
- - Clemson(+3) over Ohio State
- - Iowa(+1') over Florida
- - San Diego State(+5) over Houston
- - Michigan(-7) over Florida State
- - Wisconsin(-7') over Western Michigan


Leans:
- - Wyoming(+9') over BYU
- - Pittsburgh(-3) over Northwestern
- - Alabama(-16) over Washington
- - West Virginia(Pk) over Miami
- - Colorado(-4') over Oklahoma State
- - Tennessee(-4') over Nebraska
- - Boise State(-7') over Baylor
Click to expand...

Wyoming(+10)(-120) over BYU (1.5*)
- - Last Saturday night I was extremely disappointed when I saw underdog San Diego State had whipped Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl, as it was going to be one of my strongest Bowl plays of the season, but I didn't get a wager made as I was busy with lots of other stuff and was paying no attention to when the Bowl season got underway . . . When the BYU line came out on December 4 my first reaction was "that's a hefty spread", and then when my first look further into the game revealed that inspirational and dynamic Taysom Hill would be out at QB, Wyoming immediately went on my list of likely plays on December 5, and that's still the case.


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Maryland(-1') over Boston College (1.5*)
- -

Vanderbilt(+5') over North Carolina State (1.5*)
- -

Army(-11) over North Texas (1.5*)
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Washington State(-10) over Minnesota (1.5*)
- -

Boise State(-7') over Baylor (1.5*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,512
242
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Virginia Tech(-7)(-113) over Arkansas (1.5*)
- -

Arkansas/Virginia Tech(Ov61') (1.5*)
- -

Colorado(-3)(+102) over Oklahoma State (1.5*)
- - Don't feel good about this play, but it's an auto-play after going 9-2 ATS to date with Colorado during the season. And fearful that by the time this play rolls around, my 0-fer streak will have definitely reached the longest run of my life, if it hasn't already.

GL
 
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