First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Northwestern(-5') over Purdue (1*)
- - Northwestern wins three straight games in overtime. Unheard of . . . Northwestern gains almost 500 yards of offense last week while going 0 for 11 on 3rd down conversions. Unheard of . . . Purdue getting a road win here while looking worn down and under pressure. Not unheard of, but not my play.
GL
- - Northwestern wins three straight games in overtime. Unheard of . . . Northwestern gains almost 500 yards of offense last week while going 0 for 11 on 3rd down conversions. Unheard of . . . Purdue getting a road win here while looking worn down and under pressure. Not unheard of, but not my play.
GL
Iowa(-7) over Purdue (1*)
- - A good team, and a good late season team, that gained 66 total yards last week is not a gracious host on Senior Day.
Wisconsin(-7) over Michigan (1*)
- - Last week I thought we might see an improved 2.0 version of Michigan, but I was not impressed.
Northwestern(-7) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Legitimate defenses have got the job done against Minnesota all season.
California(+14) over Stanford (1*)
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West Virginia(-3) over Texas (1*)
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Kentucky(+21') over Georgia (1*)
- - This season has been excellent for any trend of going against a formerly undefeated team off their first late season loss.
Pittsburgh(+15) over Virginia Tech (1*)
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UAB(+10') over Florida (1*)
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Temple(+13) over UCF (1*)
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GL
- - A good team, and a good late season team, that gained 66 total yards last week is not a gracious host on Senior Day.
Wisconsin(-7) over Michigan (1*)
- - Last week I thought we might see an improved 2.0 version of Michigan, but I was not impressed.
Northwestern(-7) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Legitimate defenses have got the job done against Minnesota all season.
California(+14) over Stanford (1*)
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West Virginia(-3) over Texas (1*)
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Kentucky(+21') over Georgia (1*)
- - This season has been excellent for any trend of going against a formerly undefeated team off their first late season loss.
Pittsburgh(+15) over Virginia Tech (1*)
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UAB(+10') over Florida (1*)
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Temple(+13) over UCF (1*)
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GL
San Diego State(-20') over New Mexico (1*)
- - The Senior Day game that leaps off the page for me this week.
Iowa(-4') over Nebraska (1*)
- - The line might be a tad inflated but Iowa should bag the trophy and the money.
Missouri(-8) over Arkansas (1*)
- - They have been on my radar for weeks and I only pulled the trigger once. Now I'll likely compound that mistake, it's what I do as a .500 player.
Miami(-12') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - Pitt's Bowl Game, and all the pressure on Miami even though next week most likely determines their fate, but I like HC Richt this week finishing what they started.
GL
- - The Senior Day game that leaps off the page for me this week.
Iowa(-4') over Nebraska (1*)
- - The line might be a tad inflated but Iowa should bag the trophy and the money.
Missouri(-8) over Arkansas (1*)
- - They have been on my radar for weeks and I only pulled the trigger once. Now I'll likely compound that mistake, it's what I do as a .500 player.
Miami(-12') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - Pitt's Bowl Game, and all the pressure on Miami even though next week most likely determines their fate, but I like HC Richt this week finishing what they started.
GL
California(+7) over UCLA (1*)
- - An underrated rivalry (Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California–UCLA_football_rivalry ). Cal has been ascending a bit and unusually salty during a well coached season, UCLA has disappointed with their featured storyline. Both teams striving for a 6th win. I'm wagering that Cal is a live dog that can hold up their end for some sort of donneybrook.
GL
- - An underrated rivalry (Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California–UCLA_football_rivalry ). Cal has been ascending a bit and unusually salty during a well coached season, UCLA has disappointed with their featured storyline. Both teams striving for a 6th win. I'm wagering that Cal is a live dog that can hold up their end for some sort of donneybrook.
GL
While going down my sheet yesterday it was obvious I was liking one side over another in too many games on this week's card. While being more selective would limit my loss exposure on what can be a tough rivalry weekend, I'm not sure it would enhance my profit potential to pick and choose just where to pull the trigger . . . So since it's the last big weekend of college football for a long time, and I have a whole season of ANGLES and INFORMATION for forming credible opinions, I'll be continuing with my full card (FWIW, the next two games on my list from yesterday on which I had definite leans were Texas Tech and Virginia Tech, followed amazingly by some good choices in two MAC games based on ANGLES I liked after reading capping analysis elsewhere that both played out accordingly).
I'll start with some big games where any additional research would be unlikely to change my opinion, then I hope to still make time this morning and later in the day to get down in the weeds with at least some additional capping for ANGLES or INFORMATION before piling up additional plays.
Wisconsin(-18') over Minnesota (1*)
- - Legitimate defenses have got the job done against Minnesota all season. Contrast that with South Carolina which has been legit as a live dog all campaign.
South Carolina(+13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-12) over Michigan (1*)
- - Michigan has been far from elite this season, and then when I thought maybe a Michigan 2.0 might catch a second wind that would likely be better than their 1.0 iteration, I was disappointed. IMO Ohio State has a team that can ball as an elite, certainly in the conference, and I'll take my chances letting them carry my cash for 60 minutes . . . I think Alabama under QB Jalen Hurts have all the weapons, depth and experience to have been a formidable team to beat all season and they've been quietly peaking for the late season, and I like Alabama to move on, but still mostly expecting Auburn can do their part to make this the game of the year in the SEC, and maybe anywhere.
Auburn(+4') over Alabama (1*)
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Washington State(+10') over Washington (1*)
- - I must be missing something if Washington State isn't a live dog going for this bucket list milestone.
Notre Dame(-2') over Stanford (1*)
- - You would think the way Miami played their last two games would have me doubting Notre Dame, but not really. I still think the altar boys are the better team in this game and they get a much more favorable matchup this go round in a game that means a little bit more to them to validate their turnaround.
GL
I'll start with some big games where any additional research would be unlikely to change my opinion, then I hope to still make time this morning and later in the day to get down in the weeds with at least some additional capping for ANGLES or INFORMATION before piling up additional plays.
Wisconsin(-18') over Minnesota (1*)
- - Legitimate defenses have got the job done against Minnesota all season. Contrast that with South Carolina which has been legit as a live dog all campaign.
South Carolina(+13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-12) over Michigan (1*)
- - Michigan has been far from elite this season, and then when I thought maybe a Michigan 2.0 might catch a second wind that would likely be better than their 1.0 iteration, I was disappointed. IMO Ohio State has a team that can ball as an elite, certainly in the conference, and I'll take my chances letting them carry my cash for 60 minutes . . . I think Alabama under QB Jalen Hurts have all the weapons, depth and experience to have been a formidable team to beat all season and they've been quietly peaking for the late season, and I like Alabama to move on, but still mostly expecting Auburn can do their part to make this the game of the year in the SEC, and maybe anywhere.
Auburn(+4') over Alabama (1*)
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Washington State(+10') over Washington (1*)
- - I must be missing something if Washington State isn't a live dog going for this bucket list milestone.
Notre Dame(-2') over Stanford (1*)
- - You would think the way Miami played their last two games would have me doubting Notre Dame, but not really. I still think the altar boys are the better team in this game and they get a much more favorable matchup this go round in a game that means a little bit more to them to validate their turnaround.
GL
Nothing easy and no great value in the next two games. But here I go.
Indiana(+3)(-130) over Purdue (1*)
- - This game between two currently ascending conference regimes shapes up as a really big deal in their little corner of the universe. I think Purdue has shown a little bit more grit and I won't be surprised if it's their day for the senior's in this rivalry. But I think the Indiana attack is the more difficult to prepare for and gets a reasonably favorable matchup, and lacking a signature win for their season I'll take the visitor as a live dog.
Iowa State(+2) over Kansas State (1*)
- - Started the week leaning to Kansas State. Most research has me leaning to Iowa State. These two teams have played a lot of games against each other that have come down to the wire . . . Iowa State is playing for their most conference wins. Ever. And other milestones . . . Kansas State comes off a huge win . . . The Iowa State defense should limit the K State QB and the huge offensive plays that have been putting points on the board for K State. I'm liking the visitor.
GL
Indiana(+3)(-130) over Purdue (1*)
- - This game between two currently ascending conference regimes shapes up as a really big deal in their little corner of the universe. I think Purdue has shown a little bit more grit and I won't be surprised if it's their day for the senior's in this rivalry. But I think the Indiana attack is the more difficult to prepare for and gets a reasonably favorable matchup, and lacking a signature win for their season I'll take the visitor as a live dog.
Iowa State(+2) over Kansas State (1*)
- - Started the week leaning to Kansas State. Most research has me leaning to Iowa State. These two teams have played a lot of games against each other that have come down to the wire . . . Iowa State is playing for their most conference wins. Ever. And other milestones . . . Kansas State comes off a huge win . . . The Iowa State defense should limit the K State QB and the huge offensive plays that have been putting points on the board for K State. I'm liking the visitor.
GL
Kentucky(+10) over Louisville (1*)
- - Not an underrated rivalry in their little corner of the universe. Louisville hasn't been dictating outcomes on the road this season.
Georgia(-11) over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - I was impressed last week that they are who we thought they are.
Boston College(-4) over Syracuse (1*)
- - The Boston College resurgence is in the mix for the second biggest surprise after Missouri. All signs point to Syracuse QB Eric Dungey being on the sidelines, and for me that means Syracuse will be hard pressed to finish on a high note.
- - Rice is garbage, but the play I'm leaving off my early card is North Texas(-12).
GL
- - Not an underrated rivalry in their little corner of the universe. Louisville hasn't been dictating outcomes on the road this season.
Georgia(-11) over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - I was impressed last week that they are who we thought they are.
Boston College(-4) over Syracuse (1*)
- - The Boston College resurgence is in the mix for the second biggest surprise after Missouri. All signs point to Syracuse QB Eric Dungey being on the sidelines, and for me that means Syracuse will be hard pressed to finish on a high note.
- - Rice is garbage, but the play I'm leaving off my early card is North Texas(-12).
GL
NCAA YTD 74-73 (-7.71*)
NFL YTD: 41-37 (-1.03*)
Oklahoma(-7) over TCU (1*)
- - One of only two games this weekend that I'm not waffling on.
UCF(-7)(+100) over Memphis (1*)
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GL
NFL YTD: 41-37 (-1.03*)
Oklahoma(-7) over TCU (1*)
- - One of only two games this weekend that I'm not waffling on.
UCF(-7)(+100) over Memphis (1*)
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GL
Auburn(+1') over Georgia (1*)
- - Auburn is not at home, but I just can't go against them in this championship game.
GL
- - Auburn is not at home, but I just can't go against them in this championship game.
GL
Wisconsin(+3') over Ohio State (1*)
- - The other one of only two games this weekend that I'm not waffling on. But I wish I could get back the value at +6'.
Miami(+12) over Clemson (1*)
- - Clemson has been mighty good to me late in the season for quite a while while Dabo has been building his elite program, but this spread has me waffling over to a Miami team that is no fraud.
Fresno State(+10) over Boise State (1*)
- - I?m not a big fan of the immediate rematch, even if that?s somewhat mitigated by the fact the last game was somewhat meaningless . . . Otherwise the trends are amazing: Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games, while Fresno is 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with winning records. Against a rugged schedule new Fresno HC Jeff Tedford has gotten the full measure out of his team and I?m not shying away from them here.
GL
- - The other one of only two games this weekend that I'm not waffling on. But I wish I could get back the value at +6'.
Miami(+12) over Clemson (1*)
- - Clemson has been mighty good to me late in the season for quite a while while Dabo has been building his elite program, but this spread has me waffling over to a Miami team that is no fraud.
Fresno State(+10) over Boise State (1*)
- - I?m not a big fan of the immediate rematch, even if that?s somewhat mitigated by the fact the last game was somewhat meaningless . . . Otherwise the trends are amazing: Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games, while Fresno is 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with winning records. Against a rugged schedule new Fresno HC Jeff Tedford has gotten the full measure out of his team and I?m not shying away from them here.
GL
