First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Minnesota(-10') over Cleveland (1*)
- - Minnesota(-10') over Cleveland (1*)
- - Maybe a change of routine is what Cleveland needs, but this seems unproductive; today I like superior coaching and organizational preparation to maintain the chasm of distance Minnesota has established between these teams.
http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/inde...owns_pregame_scrib_66.html#incart_river_index
(Items # 10 and #2 are amusing)
GL
GL
- - Minnesota(-10') over Cleveland (1*)
- - Maybe a change of routine is what Cleveland needs, but this seems unproductive; today I like superior coaching and organizational preparation to maintain the chasm of distance Minnesota has established between these teams.
http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/inde...owns_pregame_scrib_66.html#incart_river_index
(Items # 10 and #2 are amusing)
GL
GL
New Orleans(-8') over Chicago (1*)
- - Chicago does not win the turnover battle.
Los Angeles Chargers(+7)(-120) over New England (1*)
- - L.A. to me has an unrecognizable for them bounce in their step as they are tasked with scaling the unconquerable.
Tampa Bay(-1)(-115) over Carolina (1*)
- - I'd say there are reasonable chances this game is not a work of art but is decided by a single point.
Buffalo(-1') over Oakland (1*)
- - Oakland has definitely not shown me enough so I'm willing to take a shot at tailing on this one with a Buffalo team I've found myself pulling for and siding with.
GL
- - Chicago does not win the turnover battle.
Los Angeles Chargers(+7)(-120) over New England (1*)
- - L.A. to me has an unrecognizable for them bounce in their step as they are tasked with scaling the unconquerable.
Tampa Bay(-1)(-115) over Carolina (1*)
- - I'd say there are reasonable chances this game is not a work of art but is decided by a single point.
Buffalo(-1') over Oakland (1*)
- - Oakland has definitely not shown me enough so I'm willing to take a shot at tailing on this one with a Buffalo team I've found myself pulling for and siding with.
GL
Buffalo(-3)(-125) over New York Jets (1*)
- - Not sure what to make of the J-E-T-S, but I'll stick with a fresh and hungry Buffalo team I've found myself pulling for and siding with.
GL
- - Not sure what to make of the J-E-T-S, but I'll stick with a fresh and hungry Buffalo team I've found myself pulling for and siding with.
GL
New Orleans(-6') over Tampa Bay (1*)
- - It?s the NFL, maybe after ?5 wins in a row saints due for a turd and . . . bucs have to win sometime (after September, so) that the bucs will really dig in, and the saints will be fat and happy.? But for my money, QB Winston did some practicing this week but still ain?t right, while ?the Saints are like a kid that?s discovered a new toy, "playing defense.??, and have seem to ?forsaken the gun slinging days of yore when Brees simply tried to throw the last td pass,? having allowed fewer points than Denver and 20 other teams.
Jacksonville(-5')(-115) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Jacksonville has been on a great game then poor game roller coaster; their bye last week might have been their poor week. This was my top play for the week until RB Fournette was ruled out, but still think Jags mean to get it more right than wrong on the season, and this spot computes. While Jags are just 1-5 SU the last 6 times they were favorites, they are 6-1 ATS following a bye while the Bengals are on a 1-5 run ATS as an away dog.
Los Angeles Rams(-5)(?115) over New York Giants (1*)
- - I believe teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 9-0-1 ATS. Go figure. Applies today to Arizona as well . . . Except that it followed a trip to London, I?m not really sure a bye was what the high flying Rams really needed, but I?m not seeing or hearing that HC Bob McAdoo is leading a fresh reset of his squad through their bye week.
Atlanta/Carolina(Un42) (1*)
- - Totals are certainly not a strength of mine, but I was looking early and often at this as a nasty divisional tilt with Atlanta on a third straight road game, and then it was a strong play for a couple cappers I check on regularly, so it?s a play.
GL
- - It?s the NFL, maybe after ?5 wins in a row saints due for a turd and . . . bucs have to win sometime (after September, so) that the bucs will really dig in, and the saints will be fat and happy.? But for my money, QB Winston did some practicing this week but still ain?t right, while ?the Saints are like a kid that?s discovered a new toy, "playing defense.??, and have seem to ?forsaken the gun slinging days of yore when Brees simply tried to throw the last td pass,? having allowed fewer points than Denver and 20 other teams.
Jacksonville(-5')(-115) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Jacksonville has been on a great game then poor game roller coaster; their bye last week might have been their poor week. This was my top play for the week until RB Fournette was ruled out, but still think Jags mean to get it more right than wrong on the season, and this spot computes. While Jags are just 1-5 SU the last 6 times they were favorites, they are 6-1 ATS following a bye while the Bengals are on a 1-5 run ATS as an away dog.
Los Angeles Rams(-5)(?115) over New York Giants (1*)
- - I believe teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 9-0-1 ATS. Go figure. Applies today to Arizona as well . . . Except that it followed a trip to London, I?m not really sure a bye was what the high flying Rams really needed, but I?m not seeing or hearing that HC Bob McAdoo is leading a fresh reset of his squad through their bye week.
Atlanta/Carolina(Un42) (1*)
- - Totals are certainly not a strength of mine, but I was looking early and often at this as a nasty divisional tilt with Atlanta on a third straight road game, and then it was a strong play for a couple cappers I check on regularly, so it?s a play.
GL
Arizona(-2') over San Francisco (1*)
- - SF QB C.J. Beathard is a tough football guy, but I know the ex-Iowa QB is not ready to be an NFL starter, period, and his team doesn?t give him a lot of help. However, while the SF QB room was turned upside down during the week, this spot as a winless home dog against a bad divisional foe is the best opportunity he will ever get . . . Arizona has been failing in all sorts of critical offensive and defensive situations, and their QB Stanton is journeyman caliber at best . . . After today?s Rams game, I believe teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 10-0-1 ATS. Go figure. I?ll play Stanton and Arizona.
Seattle(-9) over Washington (1*)
- - No team in the NFL is as beaten up as Washington. They still like to come out like gangbusters, but at some point they get overmatched and you can just see their ?dauber down.? . . . While Seattle won?t wear Washington out with their offense, their is a mismatch facing the Seattle defense, and all the energy is against them here.
GL
- - SF QB C.J. Beathard is a tough football guy, but I know the ex-Iowa QB is not ready to be an NFL starter, period, and his team doesn?t give him a lot of help. However, while the SF QB room was turned upside down during the week, this spot as a winless home dog against a bad divisional foe is the best opportunity he will ever get . . . Arizona has been failing in all sorts of critical offensive and defensive situations, and their QB Stanton is journeyman caliber at best . . . After today?s Rams game, I believe teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 10-0-1 ATS. Go figure. I?ll play Stanton and Arizona.
Seattle(-9) over Washington (1*)
- - No team in the NFL is as beaten up as Washington. They still like to come out like gangbusters, but at some point they get overmatched and you can just see their ?dauber down.? . . . While Seattle won?t wear Washington out with their offense, their is a mismatch facing the Seattle defense, and all the energy is against them here.
GL
Detroit(+2') over Green Bay (1*)
- - Packers battle to stay relevant. Stafford and the Lions battle their own prime time and Lambeau demons . . . I think Hundley and Green Bay don't play bad, I just think their is better value with Detroit closing early and late in the red zone.
GL
- - Packers battle to stay relevant. Stafford and the Lions battle their own prime time and Lambeau demons . . . I think Hundley and Green Bay don't play bad, I just think their is better value with Detroit closing early and late in the red zone.
GL
NFL YTD: 33-28 (+1.07*)
NCAA YTD: 62-60 (-6.21*)
Chicago(-4) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - You could break this game down by saying that for the first time the Packers without Rodgers will not be facing an elite QB with a slew of weapons, and might even argue that getting away from Lambeau and collectively preparing for a hostile road test could be a good jolt to their system. But I?m not breaking down this Packers vs. Bears game in those terms.
- - Green Bay has been slow to climb out of their stupor while crashing from leading Super Bowl contenders to also-rans. Maybe in denial, maybe numb, maybe dumb, maybe weak, maybe they suck from the top down, but something there worth wagering against . . . The Bears defense has really been cranking it up in recent weeks, and their offense has gained steam as well. The hungry and young Bears are now fresh off a bye, and I see one and only one team with a real bounce in their step in this clash of rivals.
Buffalo(+2) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Buffalo has been an impressive 4-0 at home this season, and they get a dome team in the elements that is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites (including domes). While this New Orleans team can run the ball and plays good defense to make them far less reliant on Drew Brees on the road, their run defense is rated 28th while facing mainly pocket passers and now QB Tyrod Taylor?s rushing could cause more problems . . . New Orleans has been very good to me this season, but Buffalo as a wintry home dog with late season extra rest off a humiliating effort looks the right spot for cooling off a red-hot winning streak.
Pittsburgh/Indianapolis(Ov46') (1*)
- - Seems somewhat against the grain when QB Roethlisberger is not the same on the road and Pittsburgh has had red zone woes while failing to score more than 29 points in any game all season, but I?m tailing on this play.
GL
NCAA YTD: 62-60 (-6.21*)
Chicago(-4) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - You could break this game down by saying that for the first time the Packers without Rodgers will not be facing an elite QB with a slew of weapons, and might even argue that getting away from Lambeau and collectively preparing for a hostile road test could be a good jolt to their system. But I?m not breaking down this Packers vs. Bears game in those terms.
- - Green Bay has been slow to climb out of their stupor while crashing from leading Super Bowl contenders to also-rans. Maybe in denial, maybe numb, maybe dumb, maybe weak, maybe they suck from the top down, but something there worth wagering against . . . The Bears defense has really been cranking it up in recent weeks, and their offense has gained steam as well. The hungry and young Bears are now fresh off a bye, and I see one and only one team with a real bounce in their step in this clash of rivals.
Buffalo(+2) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Buffalo has been an impressive 4-0 at home this season, and they get a dome team in the elements that is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites (including domes). While this New Orleans team can run the ball and plays good defense to make them far less reliant on Drew Brees on the road, their run defense is rated 28th while facing mainly pocket passers and now QB Tyrod Taylor?s rushing could cause more problems . . . New Orleans has been very good to me this season, but Buffalo as a wintry home dog with late season extra rest off a humiliating effort looks the right spot for cooling off a red-hot winning streak.
Pittsburgh/Indianapolis(Ov46') (1*)
- - Seems somewhat against the grain when QB Roethlisberger is not the same on the road and Pittsburgh has had red zone woes while failing to score more than 29 points in any game all season, but I?m tailing on this play.
GL
Minnesota(+1) over Washington (1*)
- - Teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 11-0-1 ATS
Cleveland(+10) over Detroit (1*)
- - 11-0-1 ATS.
GL
- - Teams off a bye following a game in London since 2015 are 11-0-1 ATS
Cleveland(+10) over Detroit (1*)
- - 11-0-1 ATS.
GL
Kansas City(-10)(-105) over New York Giants (1*)
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Chicago(+3)(-103) over Detroit (1*)
- -
Jacksonville(-7) over Cleveland (1*)
- -
Green Bay(+3)(-135) over Baltimore (1 Biscuit)
- - Don't feel I have a good feel for this game, don't feel I have a good feel for this card.
GL
- -
Chicago(+3)(-103) over Detroit (1*)
- -
Jacksonville(-7) over Cleveland (1*)
- -
Green Bay(+3)(-135) over Baltimore (1 Biscuit)
- - Don't feel I have a good feel for this game, don't feel I have a good feel for this card.
GL
Los Angeles Rams(-2') over New Orleans (1*)
- - My take on the late season situational angles for this game grade out as a definite A. The fundamental matchups are at least a solid C. The value is tempting. I didn't look at any technical trends, but they would have to be slanted in some eye-popping manner to have made me make this a no play.
Buffalo/Kansas City(Ov47) (1*)
- - Sometimes I might see value in a play because the line is -8 instead of -10. Other times, like here, my sense of value kicks in because when I play the game out in the theater of my mind, I keep seeing both teams rising up with both emotion and focus in an important game which will lead to playmaking that sends the game over most any duly hung Vegas total much more than 54% of the time.
Atlanta(-10) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- - Fuck with a capital F the short week in this spot, I just can't see how this is mostly a good week to get Atlanta at home, or why I would be liking the chances of division foe Tampa to be peaking for this difficult late season opportunity.
Chicago(+14) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - I could have easily picked some other game, or better yet left this game off my card, but I'm just believing there's a good chance Chicago is a pesky dog in this game.
Green Bay(+14) over Pittsburgh (1 Biscuit)
- - My commitment to make a play in every Packers and Hawkeyes game continues. I think McCarthy takes this weak Green Bay team to western Pennsylvania to play more or less as good as they are currently capable, and if they get the money it's because they have played tough as the 4th quarter gets underway and definitely not because they come in entirely through the back door.
GL
- - My take on the late season situational angles for this game grade out as a definite A. The fundamental matchups are at least a solid C. The value is tempting. I didn't look at any technical trends, but they would have to be slanted in some eye-popping manner to have made me make this a no play.
Buffalo/Kansas City(Ov47) (1*)
- - Sometimes I might see value in a play because the line is -8 instead of -10. Other times, like here, my sense of value kicks in because when I play the game out in the theater of my mind, I keep seeing both teams rising up with both emotion and focus in an important game which will lead to playmaking that sends the game over most any duly hung Vegas total much more than 54% of the time.
Atlanta(-10) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- - Fuck with a capital F the short week in this spot, I just can't see how this is mostly a good week to get Atlanta at home, or why I would be liking the chances of division foe Tampa to be peaking for this difficult late season opportunity.
Chicago(+14) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - I could have easily picked some other game, or better yet left this game off my card, but I'm just believing there's a good chance Chicago is a pesky dog in this game.
Green Bay(+14) over Pittsburgh (1 Biscuit)
- - My commitment to make a play in every Packers and Hawkeyes game continues. I think McCarthy takes this weak Green Bay team to western Pennsylvania to play more or less as good as they are currently capable, and if they get the money it's because they have played tough as the 4th quarter gets underway and definitely not because they come in entirely through the back door.
GL
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NFL YTD: 41-36 (+0.07*)
NCAA YTD 74-73 (-7.71*)
Washington(-1') over Dallas (1*)
- - Washington has been gritty as hell week after week. Even so, Washington was seriously overmatched and got worn down when these teams recently faced off in a downpour. Doesn?t seem like enough has changed since then to account for a dramatic change of fortunes, but I?ll nervously back the gritty team here based on the eyeball test.
Basketball season. Yuck.
GL
NCAA YTD 74-73 (-7.71*)
Washington(-1') over Dallas (1*)
- - Washington has been gritty as hell week after week. Even so, Washington was seriously overmatched and got worn down when these teams recently faced off in a downpour. Doesn?t seem like enough has changed since then to account for a dramatic change of fortunes, but I?ll nervously back the gritty team here based on the eyeball test.
Basketball season. Yuck.
GL
San Francisco(+3) over Chicago (1*)
- - I thought it worked out for this to be exactly the game for QB Garoppolo to take over the helm. I think SF is a live dog in a game they expect to win, and any trends favoring Chicago need to include that the Bears are I believe 0-5 or 0-6 ATS as a favorite under HC John Fox.
Jacksonville(-10) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - I was very tempted to take Arizona last week, because much like the Rams earlier in the year, I though it was about time for emerging Jacksonville to get roughed up on the road and take care of business at home. Today is Part 2 of that gambit.
Los Angeles Chargers(-13') over Cleveland (1*)
- - I really don?t think this is a week I would take any team visiting the resurgent and now rested Chargers. Since San Diego is the only team Cleveland has put a beating on in the last two seasons, I?d say they are not going to sneak up on their West Coast hosts today.
Denver(-2) over Miami (1*)
- - I know most wouldn?t give a plug nickle for any Denver QB, but I definitely thought Siemian was the best option for Denver when he was sent to the bench, and I think that even more so now that he?s watched the losing streak continue. I don?t feel I?m picking some exceptionally bad spot to ?get on board? a team with an 0-7 ATS losing streak when the team they are playing is on an 0-4-1 ATS streak of their own.
Green Bay(-2') over Tampa Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - With no expectations and not much real pressure I really expected Green Bay to play their asses off for their coach on last week?s trip to western Pennsylvania. Not so sure at all this week with the expectations and pressure both ratcheted up before the restless home folks.
New York Giants(+9)(-115) over Oakland (1*)
- - Since the opening game against Dallas when my take was that Eli was mastering 1 yard passes (through the air, not across the line of scrimmage) while trapped in the pocket, and like his big brother his skills were never coming back (late in the season, or next season), I was expecting a very poor season from the Giants and a bad year for Eli. I certainly agree his benching was handled clumsily, but I think the Giants this week will be reasonably cohesive by their standards of this season, although I would probably not make a play except they get a struggling Raiders team without some important pieces that IMO will be tasked with getting physical to cover a big spread.
Tennessee(+7) over Houston (1*)
- - I have to believe the beat down administered by QB DeShaun Watson is fresh on the minds of Tennessee (along with an overall abysml record against Houston), but the Texans arriving for this fierce rematch are an entirely different team, and off a late season short week road trip to boot.
GL
- - I thought it worked out for this to be exactly the game for QB Garoppolo to take over the helm. I think SF is a live dog in a game they expect to win, and any trends favoring Chicago need to include that the Bears are I believe 0-5 or 0-6 ATS as a favorite under HC John Fox.
Jacksonville(-10) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - I was very tempted to take Arizona last week, because much like the Rams earlier in the year, I though it was about time for emerging Jacksonville to get roughed up on the road and take care of business at home. Today is Part 2 of that gambit.
Los Angeles Chargers(-13') over Cleveland (1*)
- - I really don?t think this is a week I would take any team visiting the resurgent and now rested Chargers. Since San Diego is the only team Cleveland has put a beating on in the last two seasons, I?d say they are not going to sneak up on their West Coast hosts today.
Denver(-2) over Miami (1*)
- - I know most wouldn?t give a plug nickle for any Denver QB, but I definitely thought Siemian was the best option for Denver when he was sent to the bench, and I think that even more so now that he?s watched the losing streak continue. I don?t feel I?m picking some exceptionally bad spot to ?get on board? a team with an 0-7 ATS losing streak when the team they are playing is on an 0-4-1 ATS streak of their own.
Green Bay(-2') over Tampa Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - With no expectations and not much real pressure I really expected Green Bay to play their asses off for their coach on last week?s trip to western Pennsylvania. Not so sure at all this week with the expectations and pressure both ratcheted up before the restless home folks.
New York Giants(+9)(-115) over Oakland (1*)
- - Since the opening game against Dallas when my take was that Eli was mastering 1 yard passes (through the air, not across the line of scrimmage) while trapped in the pocket, and like his big brother his skills were never coming back (late in the season, or next season), I was expecting a very poor season from the Giants and a bad year for Eli. I certainly agree his benching was handled clumsily, but I think the Giants this week will be reasonably cohesive by their standards of this season, although I would probably not make a play except they get a struggling Raiders team without some important pieces that IMO will be tasked with getting physical to cover a big spread.
Tennessee(+7) over Houston (1*)
- - I have to believe the beat down administered by QB DeShaun Watson is fresh on the minds of Tennessee (along with an overall abysml record against Houston), but the Texans arriving for this fierce rematch are an entirely different team, and off a late season short week road trip to boot.
GL
NFL YTD: 46-39 (+1.63*)
NCAA YTD 74-73 (-8.01*)
Dallas(-4) over New York Giants (1*)
- - I stand by exactly what I said last week about Eli Manning?s late season and late career prospects, and I think Dallas is the team with a bounce in their game this week. Spread moving far too much the wrong way in this one.
Cleveland(+3') over Green Bay (1*)
- - Seems so much more likely than not that this is going to be a real tussle.
Cincinnati(-5') over Chicago (1*)
- - Last week?s score doesn?t tell the story of how completely a depleted Chicago team was dominated at home (only 36 offensive plays in 21 minutes time of possession) by an admittedly misleading 1-10 San Francisco team. Not a great spot after Cinci lost a very tough game last week, but at 5-7 they are definitely not out of the playoff hunt in the AFC, and if their offense has any spark at home (even if they are also a fairly bad team that is not very efficient on 3rd downs), they look too strong for a Chicago uprising.
Carolina(+2) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Minnesota is feeling it and right now I?m seeing it as a definite advantage rather than a disadvantage that Minnesota looks to peak on their run to hosting and winning a Super Bowl in their home stadium. But even if they were some historic juggernaut like the 1996 Packers, which the no playoff wins since the 2009 season Vikings certainly are not, I would be looking for reasons to go against a team playing their 5th road game in 6 weeks, including their 3rd tough one in a row, that is favored on the road against an 8-4 opponent . . . Carolina right now is IMO as tough of a defense as Minnesota has faced all season, and Carolina is the team much, much more in need in their frenzied divisional race, and situationaly I certainly don?t object to them coming off a costly divisional road loss. While QB Cam Newton can struggle against the best defenses, he also possesses exactly the right skills that on any given day can take down any defense no matter how good. So I?m not sure Cam won?t in fact be the difference that turns the game for the Vikings, but I think there is definitely a live dog on the grass in this one.
GL
NCAA YTD 74-73 (-8.01*)
Dallas(-4) over New York Giants (1*)
- - I stand by exactly what I said last week about Eli Manning?s late season and late career prospects, and I think Dallas is the team with a bounce in their game this week. Spread moving far too much the wrong way in this one.
Cleveland(+3') over Green Bay (1*)
- - Seems so much more likely than not that this is going to be a real tussle.
Cincinnati(-5') over Chicago (1*)
- - Last week?s score doesn?t tell the story of how completely a depleted Chicago team was dominated at home (only 36 offensive plays in 21 minutes time of possession) by an admittedly misleading 1-10 San Francisco team. Not a great spot after Cinci lost a very tough game last week, but at 5-7 they are definitely not out of the playoff hunt in the AFC, and if their offense has any spark at home (even if they are also a fairly bad team that is not very efficient on 3rd downs), they look too strong for a Chicago uprising.
Carolina(+2) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Minnesota is feeling it and right now I?m seeing it as a definite advantage rather than a disadvantage that Minnesota looks to peak on their run to hosting and winning a Super Bowl in their home stadium. But even if they were some historic juggernaut like the 1996 Packers, which the no playoff wins since the 2009 season Vikings certainly are not, I would be looking for reasons to go against a team playing their 5th road game in 6 weeks, including their 3rd tough one in a row, that is favored on the road against an 8-4 opponent . . . Carolina right now is IMO as tough of a defense as Minnesota has faced all season, and Carolina is the team much, much more in need in their frenzied divisional race, and situationaly I certainly don?t object to them coming off a costly divisional road loss. While QB Cam Newton can struggle against the best defenses, he also possesses exactly the right skills that on any given day can take down any defense no matter how good. So I?m not sure Cam won?t in fact be the difference that turns the game for the Vikings, but I think there is definitely a live dog on the grass in this one.
GL
