Long time viewer (at least on ibettor.com), first time poster.
For me, its always about getting into mid-October when inter-Conference play begins and public perception gives way to value.
Just to explain my M.O., I typically start by looking at the card with no lines, then wait and see how the books chalk?em up. Once done, I pick about ten teams and widdle it down a little. What follows below is my widdled down list:
Illinois +26 Michigan will be a little down from their unbeieveable victory over the Gophers LW. I?m looking for a little let-down. Knowing that the reason for their 3 quarter offensive struggle was lack of execution, Michigan will go back to their bread-n-butter: running the ball and controlling the clock (good ole? Big 10 football). Having to go up against the out-manned Illinois defense will only give the Michigan big uglies more incentive to be the hammer rather than the nail. Beutjer is a pretty good senior quarterback that has been in this position before. With his ability and the Illinois offensive scheme, look for the Illini to easily backdoor this one. The Illini?s poor offensive showing against Mich St. LW has also contributed to the value of this play.
Mizzou +26.5 Oklahoma is the best team in the NCAA while Mizzou is trying to shake the stigma of a ?middle of the pack? Big 12 team. Stoops will coach his players up to avoid a let down. As odd as it seems, I think this plays right into Mizzou?s hands. The Sooner?s aggressive pass rush and Smith?s ability will result in a break of containment. Look for long runs by Smith, 1 or 2 big plays to receivers down field and a whole lot more time of possession from Mizzou. I expected to see a little more of this type of play from the Longhorns QB Young, but didn?t (Smith is better at this point in his career and will capitalize). We saw it with WVU against Miami 2 weeks ago and we?ll see it again here. Based on this aspect of the game, I think 261/2 is too many points, even against the #1 team.
Wake ?10 When I saw this game on this weekend?s card, I started salivating. I knew the cappers would act on last week?s Wake/GT game and create huge value in Wake. I don?t know how to explain GT. Frankly, I don?t think anyone does (except for maybe Chan). They play within their abilities and give maximum effort. Then again, so does Wake (well, maybe Wake DID play within their abilities for the first few weeks of the season).
LSU ?5 LSU?s offense was offensive LW. Not a single point against UF and only crossed the 5o yard line approx. 3 times. LSU fans gotta be asking ? ?What the Maulk?? The Gators changed their secondary scheme for this game, changing assignments right before the snap. The result was a confused Mauck, he sat in the pocket way too long allowing Florida to get coverage sacks. showed LSU. I expect LSU to get back to their basics: hard nose running game, roll out Mauck with easy choices. Once USC is softened up, Mauck can play action to Clayton. LSU?s speedy defense will be fine against USC?s one dimensional offense. The phenom Summers will be neutralized forcing USC?s QB to try to make plays. Won?t happen. LSU will cover by 2 TDs.
Texas A&M +10.5 ? This isn?t so much a play on A&M as it is against Lord and the Huskers. Look, parapalegics can throw better balls than Lord. The guy has no business playing QB in the Big 12. The Huskers ineptness at throwing the ball will allow the safeties to cheat up against the run. A&M?s defensives problems are more in the secondary, not against the running game.
I will admit that the blackshirts have kept the Huskers respectable to this point, but the scrambling style of McNeal will counter their aggressiveness. Home field advantage? Maybe 5 to 7 years ago, not now.
Miss St +21 I like Auburn. I have since the beginning of the year. I knew they?d come back to their late 2002 form. However, Auburn?s style isn?t really condusive for blowouts. Knowing their up against an inferior team and heading into the SEC stretch, they will run, run and run some more; trying to get their offensive line into a groove. Campbell will also continue to work on his confidence by making low risk throws. The bulldogs will try to continue improving their inconsistent (at best) offense. Fant is showing signs of life and has the ability to control the offense (some new rims must have fallen off the back of a Starkville Autozone truck). Last, I never, ever count Jackie out when he has his (bull) balls against the wall (sorry, I?m getting tired of writing and need to add in the humor).
Other plays/explanations I?ll add to this thread:
Cal +3.5
Iowa ?4
Texas -16
Comments/criticism appreciated.
Best of Luck
For me, its always about getting into mid-October when inter-Conference play begins and public perception gives way to value.
Just to explain my M.O., I typically start by looking at the card with no lines, then wait and see how the books chalk?em up. Once done, I pick about ten teams and widdle it down a little. What follows below is my widdled down list:
Illinois +26 Michigan will be a little down from their unbeieveable victory over the Gophers LW. I?m looking for a little let-down. Knowing that the reason for their 3 quarter offensive struggle was lack of execution, Michigan will go back to their bread-n-butter: running the ball and controlling the clock (good ole? Big 10 football). Having to go up against the out-manned Illinois defense will only give the Michigan big uglies more incentive to be the hammer rather than the nail. Beutjer is a pretty good senior quarterback that has been in this position before. With his ability and the Illinois offensive scheme, look for the Illini to easily backdoor this one. The Illini?s poor offensive showing against Mich St. LW has also contributed to the value of this play.
Mizzou +26.5 Oklahoma is the best team in the NCAA while Mizzou is trying to shake the stigma of a ?middle of the pack? Big 12 team. Stoops will coach his players up to avoid a let down. As odd as it seems, I think this plays right into Mizzou?s hands. The Sooner?s aggressive pass rush and Smith?s ability will result in a break of containment. Look for long runs by Smith, 1 or 2 big plays to receivers down field and a whole lot more time of possession from Mizzou. I expected to see a little more of this type of play from the Longhorns QB Young, but didn?t (Smith is better at this point in his career and will capitalize). We saw it with WVU against Miami 2 weeks ago and we?ll see it again here. Based on this aspect of the game, I think 261/2 is too many points, even against the #1 team.
Wake ?10 When I saw this game on this weekend?s card, I started salivating. I knew the cappers would act on last week?s Wake/GT game and create huge value in Wake. I don?t know how to explain GT. Frankly, I don?t think anyone does (except for maybe Chan). They play within their abilities and give maximum effort. Then again, so does Wake (well, maybe Wake DID play within their abilities for the first few weeks of the season).
LSU ?5 LSU?s offense was offensive LW. Not a single point against UF and only crossed the 5o yard line approx. 3 times. LSU fans gotta be asking ? ?What the Maulk?? The Gators changed their secondary scheme for this game, changing assignments right before the snap. The result was a confused Mauck, he sat in the pocket way too long allowing Florida to get coverage sacks. showed LSU. I expect LSU to get back to their basics: hard nose running game, roll out Mauck with easy choices. Once USC is softened up, Mauck can play action to Clayton. LSU?s speedy defense will be fine against USC?s one dimensional offense. The phenom Summers will be neutralized forcing USC?s QB to try to make plays. Won?t happen. LSU will cover by 2 TDs.
Texas A&M +10.5 ? This isn?t so much a play on A&M as it is against Lord and the Huskers. Look, parapalegics can throw better balls than Lord. The guy has no business playing QB in the Big 12. The Huskers ineptness at throwing the ball will allow the safeties to cheat up against the run. A&M?s defensives problems are more in the secondary, not against the running game.
I will admit that the blackshirts have kept the Huskers respectable to this point, but the scrambling style of McNeal will counter their aggressiveness. Home field advantage? Maybe 5 to 7 years ago, not now.
Miss St +21 I like Auburn. I have since the beginning of the year. I knew they?d come back to their late 2002 form. However, Auburn?s style isn?t really condusive for blowouts. Knowing their up against an inferior team and heading into the SEC stretch, they will run, run and run some more; trying to get their offensive line into a groove. Campbell will also continue to work on his confidence by making low risk throws. The bulldogs will try to continue improving their inconsistent (at best) offense. Fant is showing signs of life and has the ability to control the offense (some new rims must have fallen off the back of a Starkville Autozone truck). Last, I never, ever count Jackie out when he has his (bull) balls against the wall (sorry, I?m getting tired of writing and need to add in the humor).
Other plays/explanations I?ll add to this thread:
Cal +3.5
Iowa ?4
Texas -16
Comments/criticism appreciated.
Best of Luck
