First-half Play

[Nolan Dalla]

I appreciate all the great info here at the Forum for tonight's game. Looks like many are on CHI and laying the points tonight.

I don't see much of an edge based on the line -- but I do think this will be a close game. I've been fading Green Bay most of the season, but believe they will keep this one close. Bears do not have the weapons on offense to take advantage of some weaknesses on the Green Bay defense.

This is a division game, between two bitter rivals, that tradiationally play close games. It would not surprise me if this game were TIED AT HALFTIME. For this reason, I'm taking Green Bay plus the half-point in the 1H. When it comes to handicapping the the key component is identifying VALUE -- and forcing the Bears to be AHEAD at halftime is a propostion that I will be glad to fade (assuming I get that half-point and win on the tie).

1H: GREEN BAY + .5


Best Wishes,


Nolan Dalla

 

[And_One]

what's your thought on the total of the game..now at 45 ???


Thanks....

 

[dr. freeze]

hey Nolan.....I have thought about that angle for a while....wondered if you (or anyone else) had any data on playing teams 1st half where the spread for the game is <3 and you get at least a half point for first half......seems to me that the first half tie woudl be a significant factor????

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I have no thoughts on the total. Most who know me know I am an UNDER player primarily -- and I concentrate on games where at least one offense is wounded, or the factors point to a game where RUSHING will outnumber PASSING plays. However, teams like to light up the scoreboard on Monday Night Football. Caution is often thrown to the wind and offenses air out the ball. Add the zebras making the wacko pas interference calls every time there is an incomplete pass, and I'm even more eary of playing an UNDER, especially when Bret Favre is one of the QBs. Both games in Chicago have gone OVER this year, plus neither defense looks very good (Bears defense is terribly over-rated in my opinion). Too many points to play OVER and clearly the factors do not justify an UNDER in this game -- so no bet.

As far as the question about 1H plays I will make this a project and try to come up with some data. It will be interesting to identify those close games (<3 point spread) and see wht happens if you take the points in the 1H. I'll try to do this when I get some time. Thanks for the suggestion.


Nolan Dalla

 

[freelancc]

looks like money in the bank....:toast:

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

nice job

 

[Spock]

great job ND .. too bad did not see ur post before the game started.

I see ur angles on first halfs have been doin good if i am not mistaken.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Z-MAN]

keep up the good work with those halftime bets!!!

 

[bej0101]

good call my man

 

[gecko]

Good call Nolan.