Had I a 100 bill for every point and a half move on the board, I wouldn't need to bet. Trust your abilities and try not to let moves influence your opinions. sometimes they get it right, many times not.
I certainly can't get to excited about the Gators win over Kentucky as the 'Cats are a horrific football team. Same with UAB and Fl Atlantic so I think that using overall stats to cap, when based on such soft competition, could be a grave error.
Good luck with your action this weekend